Abstract:The predictability of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events are considered in 10 subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models for 10 SSWs over the period 1999-2009. The 10 SSWs are divided into those with above-average predictability (in one case exceeding 20 days), below-average predictability, and average predictability. The four factors that most succinctly distinguish the composite with above average predictability are an active Madden-Julian Oscillation with enhanced convection in the West Pacific, t… Show more
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