Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history-factors

Matthews, Stephen N.; Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha; Peters, Matthew P.; Rodewald, Paul G.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2011.06.047

Cited by 73 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 64 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Classification of drought tolerance often relies heavily on the geographic range of species distribution (especially in relation to soil moisture availability) as an indicator of a particular species' capacity to survive moisture stress. These classification systems are developed using published sources of species' range and environmental conditions to infer drought tolerance, including the Silvics of North America, USDA Plants Database, USDA Tree Atlas, and US Forest Service Fire Effects Information System (Niinemets and Valladares 2006;Matthews et al 2011;Gustafson and Sturtevant 2013;Peters et al 2015). It is worth noting that Gustafson and Sturtevant (2013) and Niinemets and Valladares (2006) also incorporated US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) mortality data and published results of crown dieback (> 50% branch dieback) for a few species, respectively, to aid in species drought classification.…”

Section: Classification Of Drought Tolerance Of Northeastern Us Spementioning

confidence: 99%

Are Northeastern U.S. forests vulnerable to extreme drought?

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the Northeastern U.S., drought is expected to increase in frequency over the next century, and therefore, the responses of trees to drought are important to understand. There is recent debate about whether land-use change or moisture availability is the primary driver of changes in forest species composition in this region. Some argue that fire suppression from the early twentieth century to present has resulted in an increase in shade-tolerant and pyrophobic tree species that are drought intolerant, while others suggest precipitation variability as a major driver of species composition. From this debate, an emerging hypothesis is that mesophication and increases in the abundance of mesophytic genera (e.g., Acer, Betula, and Fagus) resulted in forests that are more vulnerable to drought. This review examines the published literature and factors that contribute to drought vulnerability of Northeastern U.S. forests. We assessed two key concepts related to drought vulnerability, including drought tolerance (ability to survive drought) and sensitivity (short-term responses to drought), with a focus on Northeastern U.S. species. We assessed drought-tolerance classifications for species, which revealed both consistencies and inconsistencies, as well as contradictions when compared to actual observations, such as higher mortality for drought-tolerant species. Related to drought sensitivity, recent work has focused on isohydric/ anisohydric regulation of leaf water potential. However, based on the review of the literature, we conclude that drought sensitivity should be viewed in terms of multiple variables, including leaf abscission, stomatal sensitivity, turgor pressure, and dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates. Genera considered drought sensitive (e.g., Acer, Betula, and Liriodendron) may actually be less prone to drought-induced mortality and dieback than previously considered because stomatal regulation and leaf abscission in these species are effective at preventing water potential from reaching critical thresholds during extreme drought. Independent of drought-tolerance classification, trees are prone to dieback and mortality when additional stressors are involved such as insect defoliation, calcium and magnesium deficiency, nitrogen saturation, and freeze-thaw events. Overall, our literature review shows that multiple traits associated with drought sensitivity and tolerance are important as species may rely on different mechanisms to prevent hydraulic failure and depleted carbon reserves that may lead to mortality.

show abstract

Section: Classification Of Drought Tolerance Of Northeastern Us Spementioning

confidence: 99%

Are Northeastern U.S. forests vulnerable to extreme drought?

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Each tree species is further evaluated for additional factors not accounted for in the statistical models (Matthews et al 2011b). These modifying factors (Appendix 4) are based on supplementary information about life-history characteristics such as dispersal ability or fire tolerance as well as information on current pests and diseases that have been negatively affecting the species.…”

Section: Climate Change Tree Atlasmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Modifying factors include a species' life-history traits, known stressors, and other environmental factors that make a species more or less likely to persist on the landscape (Matthews et al 2011b). These factors are not explicitly included in the DISTRIB outputs, and are based on a literature review of each species.…”

Section: Tree Atlasmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Janowiak¹,

Iverson²,

Mladenoff³

et al. 2014

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Forest ecosystems across the Northwoods will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and land managers familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process.The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the region. Observed trends in climate over the past century reveal that precipitation increased in the area, particularly in summer and fall, and that daily maximum temperatures increased, particularly in winter. Projected climate trends for the next 100 years using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 2 to 9 °F for the assessment area. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these future climate projections into three forest impact models (Tree Atlas, LANDIS-II, and PnET-CN). Model projections suggest that northern boreal species such as black spruce, quaking aspen, and paper birch may fare worse under future conditions, but other species may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for nine forest communities in the assessment area. The assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process of 19 science and management experts from across the area, who considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts and the adaptive capacity for an individual community. Upland spruce-fir, lowland conifers, aspen-birch, lowland-riparian hardwoods, and red pine forests were determined to be the most vulnerable ecosystems. White pine and oak forests were perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forestdependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning. ABSTRACT Cover PhotoLake of the Clouds in western Upper Michigan. Photo by Scott Pearson, used with permission.

show abstract

“…compared to models lacking these variables. The use of traits, such as shade tolerance or disturbance sensitivity, has allowed tentative generalizations to be made about the potential of some tree species to adapt to the direct and indirect effects of AGW (Kienast et al 2010, Matthews et al 2011.…”

Section: Tree Responses To Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Assisted migration: uncertainty, risk and opportunity

Park

Talbot

2012

The Forestry Chronicle

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The recent Forestry Chronicle special section on the subject of Assisted Migration (AM) did a great service to the Canadian forestry community by summarizing the risks, opportunities and ecological aspects of this forest management strategy. In this paper, we expand on some aspects of AM that were discussed in the special section, as well as discussing additional dimensions of AM that should be considered and debated. We expand on the theme of scientific uncertainties around future warming, emphasizing the full extent of uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity. We also expand upon and summarize a number of recent ecophysiological results that have implications for the adaptation and acclimation of trees to climate change. We also discuss opportunities for innovative forest management, the influence of economic trends on the future of the Canadian forest industry, and limitations on public knowledge of climate change, all of which are factors that will influence the feasibility of AM schemes in the future.Key words: assisted migration, managed relocation, climate change scenarios, uncertainty, ecophysiology, epigenetics RÉSUMÉLa section spéciale publiée dernièrement dans le Forestry Chronicle portant sur le sujet de la migration assistée (MA) a rendu un fier service à la communauté forestière canadienne en résumant les risques, les opportunités et les questions écologiques liés à cette stratégie d'aménagement forestier. Nous approfondissons dans cet article certains aspects de la MA qui ont été abordés dans la section spéciale et nous discutons également des dimensions additionnelles de la MA qui devraient être considérées et débattues. Nous nous attardons sur le thème portant sur les incertitudes scientifiques entourant le réchauffement climatique, mettant en évidence la portée complète de l'incertitude touchant les estimés de la sensitivité climatique. Nous résumons et nous discutons également de certains résultats écophysiologiques récents qui ont des répercussions sur l'adaptation et l'acclimatation des arbres face aux changements climatiques. Nous discutons aussi des opportunités d'innovation en matière d'aménagement forestier, de l'influence des tendances économiques sur l'avenir de l'industrie forestière canadienne et des limites des connaissances du public sur les changements climatiques, tous constituant des facteurs qui influenceront la faisabilité des schémas de MA dans le futur.

show abstract

Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history-factors

Cited by 73 publications

References 64 publications

Are Northeastern U.S. forests vulnerable to extreme drought?

Are Northeastern U.S. forests vulnerable to extreme drought?

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Assisted migration: uncertainty, risk and opportunity

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About