Modification of the FFTA method for calculating and analyzing the human reliability of maintenance groups in power transmission grids

Tavakoli, Mehdi; Nafar, Mehdi

doi:10.1007/s13198-021-01141-8

Cited by 5 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…From Table 8, it can be obtained that the failure probability of electrical misoperation accidents is 1.0414 × 10 −2 . Compared with the 5.6E-03 probability of an electricity maintenance accident [50], the probability of occurrence of EMAs is relatively higher. Because this article not only considers the misoperation of maintenance but also considers the misoperation, it considers not only the human factor but also considers the organizational factor.…”

Section: Discussion Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…In response to this work, further research was carried out by Misra et al [48] to give other forms of FFTA. Subsequently, variants of FFTA have been widely used in accident analysis, for example in the petrochemical process industry [49], in power transmission grids [50], and in combustion engineering reactor protection systems [51].…”

Section: The Framework Of the Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Applications of FFTA–HFACS for Analyzing Human and Organization Factors in Electric Misoperation Accidents

Lin

Huang

2021

Applied Sciences

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Human and organizational factors (HOFs) play an important role in electric misoperation accidents (EMAs), but research into the reliability of human factors is still in its infancy in the field of EMAs, and further investment in research is urgently required. To analyze the HOFs in EMAs, a hybrid method including the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) was applied to EMAs for the first time in the paper. HFACS is used to identify and classify the HOFs with 135 accidents, reorganized as basic events (BEs), intermediate events (IEs), and top event (TE), and develop the architecture of fault tree (FT). Fuzzy aggregation is employed to address experts’ expressions and obtain the failure probabilities of the BEs and the minimal cut sets (MCSs) of the FT. The approach generates BEs failure probabilities without reliance on quantitative historical failure statistics of EMAs via qualitative records processing. The FFTA–HFACS model is applied for quantitative analysis of the probability of failure of electrical mishaps and the interaction between accident risk factors. It can assist professionals in deciding whether and where to take preventive or corrective actions and assist in knowledgeable decision-making around the electric operation and maintenance process. Finally, applying this hybrid method to EMAs, the results show that the probability of an EMAs is 1.0410 × 10−2, which is a risk level that is likely to occur and must be controlled. Two of the most important risk factors are habitual violations and supervisory violation; a combination of risk factors of inadequate work preparation and paralysis, and irresponsibility on the part of employees are also frequent errors.

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Section: Discussion Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: The Framework Of the Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Applications of FFTA–HFACS for Analyzing Human and Organization Factors in Electric Misoperation Accidents

Lin

Huang

2021

Applied Sciences

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“…Bao et al (2018) proposed three quantitative human factor assessment methods from three scenarios: time, process, and emergency in power system operation, maintenance, and dispatch. Mehdi et al used Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) with fuzzy fault trees to quantify the probability of failure of power maintenance personnel (Tavakoli & Nafar, 2021). However, the above studies (Bao et al, 2018; J. X. Tang et al, 2016; Tavakoli & Nafar, 2021) delineated the factors associated with accidents based on a human factors model and thus quantitatively assessed the probability of human error.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mehdi et al used Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) with fuzzy fault trees to quantify the probability of failure of power maintenance personnel (Tavakoli & Nafar, 2021). However, the above studies (Bao et al, 2018; J. X. Tang et al, 2016; Tavakoli & Nafar, 2021) delineated the factors associated with accidents based on a human factors model and thus quantitatively assessed the probability of human error. But they lacked an explanation of the correlation between accidents and causative factors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying and comparing the effects of human and organizational factors in electric maloperation accidents with HFACS–CatBoost and SHAP

Lin

Huang

2022

Hum Ftrs & Erg Mfg Svc

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The proportion of electric maloperation accidents (EMAs) in substations caused by human and organizational factors (HOFs) has gradually increased. Although there has been some research into the factors affecting EMAs in substations, the available results are insufficient to support the interpretation of HOFs in EMAs. This article explores the relationships between the HOFs and EMAs using Human Factors Analysis and Classification System‐gradient boosting with categorical features support (HFACS–CatBoost) and Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) methods. First, the HFACS framework was introduced to identify 135 EMAs in the Southern Power Grid risk causation. CatBoost was used to construct an accident classification model to analyze the important relationship between accidents and HOFs and to compare and analyze with the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and the binary logistic regression (BLR) to verify the superiority of CatBoost. Finally, to solve the problem of inadequate interpretation of the CatBoost black‐box model, the SHAP value plot was applied to express the contribution degree relationship between accidents and HOFs. The results show that the above method can explore and explain the importance and contribution of HOFs in EMAs. And from this, it is concluded that poor psychological state, poor communication and coordination, inadequate supervision, and inadequate training and education are highly correlated with the occurrence of EMAs. The findings will help substation operations and maintenance staff to develop safety measures to address the confusion of HOFs in substations and prevent the occurrence of EMAs.

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“…The FTA method is used to evaluate the causes that lead to system failure. The FTA is a quantitative evaluation technique that identifies an event as the top event and systematically arranges all the causes of the error in a top-down structure that looks like a tree in order to calculate the probability of occurrence of the top event [1]. According to Luo W. et al FTA computes a large class of system reliability properties and measures based on the fault tree that model's failure propagation in a system [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of FTA Analysis for Calculation of the Probability of the Failure of the Pressure Leaching Process

et al. 2021

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European Union legislation requires organizations to assess their processes in the context of risk management. The main task of risk management is to manage all risks that can significantly affect the outcome of processes. The article is focused on risk evaluation in pressure leaching at elevated temperature using the method Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The effectivity of pyrite and arsenic pyrite decomposition by oxidative pressure leaching is influenced by the duration of the process, by the temperature, concentration of the leaching solution and by a density of the slurry. It was found that, under equitable conditions, the arsenic pyrite decomposes more intensely than pyrite. Under laboratory conditions, leaching is performed in an autoclave. Due to the aggressive environment, increased pressure and temperature, process failure is possible. Its probability was calculated by FTA. It has been found that the probability of the top event in the examined process was disproportionately high (0.057) and represents an invitation to take corrective actions. The Monte Carlo method was used for the simulation of the effect the probability of basic events on the probability of the top event—the failure of the leaching process.

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Modification of the FFTA method for calculating and analyzing the human reliability of maintenance groups in power transmission grids

Cited by 5 publications

References 17 publications

Applications of FFTA–HFACS for Analyzing Human and Organization Factors in Electric Misoperation Accidents

Applications of FFTA–HFACS for Analyzing Human and Organization Factors in Electric Misoperation Accidents

Quantifying and comparing the effects of human and organizational factors in electric maloperation accidents with HFACS–CatBoost and SHAP

Application of FTA Analysis for Calculation of the Probability of the Failure of the Pressure Leaching Process

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