Modelling Urban Sprawl: Actors and Mathematics

Eisenack

Lüdeke

2011

Environ Model Assess

Self Cite

A new modelling approach to urban sprawl dynamics is introduced which allows representing qualitative knowledge on relations between moving actor populations and properties of locations. The results of this Qualitative Attractiveness Migration (QuAM) Model are scenario-like sets of possible future developments of the urban system, much in contrast to quantitative forecasts gained by traditional modelling approaches. QuAM models allow for the interaction between internal dynamics and external influences. The application of the new approach is exemplified by the case of urban sprawl in Leipzig since 1990. It was possible to reproduce the observed qualitative development and to calculate future scenarios. The scenario runs project a new wave of middle class driven residential sprawl and suggest implications for sprawl reducing policy interventions.

Section: Qualitative Differential Equationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land Consumption by Urban Sprawl—A New Approach to Deduce Urban Development Scenarios from Actors’ Preferences

Eisenack

Lüdeke

2011

Environ Model Assess

Self Cite

“…The mathematical theory behind this method was formulated by Kuipers (1994). The algorithm for solving the QuAM model is outlined in Eisenack (2006) and Lüdeke, Reckien, and Petschel-Held (2007). The main idea is to deduce as many conclusions as possible about the dynamic behavior of the system if only the direction (A influences B) and the form (A weakens or reinforces B) of the interactions between the actor classes are known.…”

Section: The Qualitative Attractiveness Migration (Quam) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For these reasons, qualitative modeling is increasingly being used in sustainability science (e.g., Bredeweg & Salles, 2003;Eisenack, Kropp, & Welsch, 2006;Guerrin & Dumas, 2001;Zitek, Muhar, Preiss, & Schmutz, 2007). The QuAM model has many applications; it is very useful for understanding urban sprawl and has been proven to reproduce suburban dynamics in a number of case studies in selected European urban regions as well as being of value in assessing possible suburban development paths in them (Lüdeke & Reckien, 2006;Lüdeke, Reckien, & Petschel-Held, 2004;Reckien, 2007). The results of the computer model are promising, but conveying its main ideas and features to practitioners proved to be complicated, according to the experience in the Urbs Pandens project.…”

Section: The Qualitative Attractiveness Migration (Quam) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban Sprawl: Using a Game to Sensitize Stakeholders to the Interdependencies Among Actors’ Preferences

Eisenack

2008

Simulation & Gaming

This article introduces QuAG, a role-playing game, to enhance understanding of urban development through a social simulation. The participants represent actors of city development, divided into moving (e.g., residents, industry, retail) and nonmoving actors (e.g., planners, politicians). Development is performed by the relocation of actors between urban and suburban areas depending on the regions’ attractiveness and the actors’ preferences. An area’s attractiveness varies with the location changes of actors and the manipulation by planners. The game is based on a qualitative computer model with similar rules and elements. The role-play was effective in two ways: it sensitized participants to the interdependencies among actors and their contribution to a region’s attractiveness and made the computer model more tangible to them. If a similar impact of the planning measures in the game can be expected in the real world, the effects of investments can provide strong incentives for the movers.

The Social Dynamics of Suburbanization: Insights from a Qualitative Model

Luedeke

2014

Environ Plan A

Self Cite

The authors contribute to the discussion on suburban developments by way of modeling the underlying social dynamics between suburban actors in two European suburban areas: the Wirral (Liverpool), UK and Leipzig, Germany. Data from questionnaires carried out in the two study areas are used to model social attraction and repulsion: that is, social segregation processes among socioeconomic groups. The model suggests that these social dynamics would, if other possible influences are ignored, lead to a situation of fluctuating residential in-migration and out-migration and to waves of suburbanization in the study regions. There are no persistent states: suburbanization would steadily continue until external-that is, not modeled-forces restrict movement, impact the spatial characteristics of the suburbs, or alter the social interactions among the actors. Suburban in-migration could only be reduced by strict planning regulations and/ or other external forces which impact actor-class constellations and interdependencies, for example, by measures to restrict migration to more distant suburban locations and to provide preferential housing in the inner urban areas. The analysis further indicates that suburbs develop into independent residential areas, separate from the urban centers, as the primary source of migration to suburbs is no longer the urban centers; the vast majority of moves occur within suburbs or into suburbs from outside the region.