Modelling trends including effects of natural disturbance in an abalone dive fishery in Australia

Gorfine, Harry; Thomson, J. M.; Spring, Daniel; Cleland, Michael

doi:10.1111/nrm.12175

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyse trends in abundance and biomass CPUE of each species (Gorfine et al., 2018). This model estimates multiyear trends in CPUE and, conditional on those trends, estimates associations with annual discharge and water temperature.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model included piecewise linear associations with discharge and water temperature and accounted for the spatial nesting of sites within reaches within rivers. Temporal trends were estimated as piecewise linear splines with up to two changepoints, which meant that these terms captured slow, multiyear dynamics rather than short‐term responses to environmental conditions (Gorfine et al., 2018). This model structure ensures that estimated trends, which are not necessarily independent of discharge, are distinct from the estimated effects of annual variation in discharge (i.e.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Underlying trends confound estimates of fish population responses to river discharge

et al. 2021

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Conservation management of freshwater ecosystems often focuses on mitigating or reversing the negative effects of altered patterns of river discharge. Assessments of management interventions frequently focus on direct, short‐term responses to discharge without consideration of underlying population trends that span multiple years. We sought to determine the effects on fish populations of annual variation in river discharge and water temperature after accounting for underlying population trends. We used data on five native and one non‐native fish species, collected over 7–20 years in seven rivers in the Murray‐Darling Basin, south‐eastern Australia. Population trends explained 3.4%–24.6% of the total variation in abundance and biomass of our six study species, while discharge and water temperature explained a further 1.2%–11.4% of this variation. However, population trends confounded the effects of discharge and water temperature, which suggests that the effects of annual discharge conditions may be contingent on past conditions and factors intrinsic to populations (e.g. age structure). Failing to account for population trends led to a combination of plausible and implausible associations with discharge and water temperature. Plausible associations included positive associations with the magnitude of spring discharge and negative associations with the number of days where discharge was below the long‐term 10th percentile. Determining whether estimated associations are real or artefactual requires a greater focus on the processes that underpin multiyear population trends. Our results highlight the potential for underlying trends in populations to confound the short‐term effects of discharge. Potential confounding of short‐ and long‐term changes in populations underscores the need to assess responses to river discharge in the context of overarching environmental conditions, including factors other than discharge.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Underlying trends confound estimates of fish population responses to river discharge

et al. 2021

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“…Fisheries are also well represented in this special issue with three more papers. Gorfine, Thomson, Spring, and Cleland () study the secondary consequences of environmental shocks to abalone fisheries in Australia. They prove how management decisions aimed at addressing direct disease impacts to a natural resource can give rise to indirect effects on unimpacted species.…”

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confidence: 99%

Introduction to the special issue on “vulnerability and resilience of socio‐ecological systems”

Pastor

2018

Natural Resource Modeling

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Modelling trends including effects of natural disturbance in an abalone dive fishery in Australia

Abstract: Fisheries management strategies usually do not consider secondary consequences of environmental shocks. A recent viral disease outbreak that decimated blacklip abalone populations in southern Australia had a much smaller impact on the region's less-abundant greenlip abalone populations.

Cited by 2 publications

References 32 publications

Underlying trends confound estimates of fish population responses to river discharge

Underlying trends confound estimates of fish population responses to river discharge

Introduction to the special issue on “vulnerability and resilience of socio‐ecological systems”

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