Aim Megafires are increasing in intensity and frequency globally. The impacts of megafires on biodiversity can be severe, so conservation managers must be able to respond rapidly to quantify their impacts, initiate recovery efforts and consider conservation options within and beyond the burned extent. We outline a framework that can be used to guide conservation responses to megafires, using the 1.5 million hectare 2019/2020 megafires in Victoria, Australia, as a case study. Location Victoria, Australia. Methods Our framework uses a suite of decision support tools, including species attribute databases, ~4,200 species distribution models and a spatially explicit conservation action planning tool to quantify the potential effects of megafires on biodiversity, and identify species‐specific and landscape‐scale conservation actions that can assist recovery. Results Our approach identified 346 species in Victoria that had >40% of their modelled habitat affected by the megafire, including 45 threatened species, and 102 species with >40% of their modelled habitat affected by high severity fire. We then identified 21 candidate recovery actions that are expected to assist the recovery of biodiversity. For relevant landscape‐scale actions, we identified locations within and adjacent to the megafire extent that are expected to deliver cost‐effective conservation gains. Main conclusion The 2019/2020 megafires in south‐eastern Australia affected the habitat of many species and plant communities. Our framework identified a range of single‐species (e.g., supplementary feeding, translocation) and landscape‐scale actions (e.g., protection of refuges, invasive species management) that can help biodiversity recover from megafires. Conservation managers will be increasingly required to rapidly identify conservation actions that can help species recover from megafires, especially under a changing climate. Our approach brings together commonly used datasets (e.g., species distribution maps, trait databases, fire severity mapping) to help guide conservation responses and can be used to help biodiversity recover from future megafires across the world.
Both the Mad Dog and Atlantis field development areas (southeast Green Canyon) extend across the Sigsbee Escarpment, the surface and seaward-most manifestation of mobile salt in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Understanding the shallow geologic setting of the Sigsbee Escarpment, and specifically the role of salt tectonics, is critical to evaluating the shallow geohazards of these fields. We combine exploration 3D seismic, high resolution 3D seismic, AUV bathymetry, AUV side scan, AUV sub-bottom profiling, piston cores, boreholes, and ROV observations to interpret the structural and geomorphic setting of the present-day Sigsbee Escarpment. These data sets can be combined to identify structural domains, and to illustrate their interaction over time. Bathymetric data show different seafloor textures across the area, indicating that portions of the Sigsbee have evolved differently in the recent geologic past. We show that these differences are due to a combination of salt morphology, supra-salt stratigraphy, and slumping. There are two primary modes of slope failure on the escarpment face, shallow-seated, small scale slumping, and deeper-seated amphitheatre-shaped failures. We distinguish among fault systems and slope failures of different origin and relate these differences to seafloor geomorphic provinces and variation in the geometry and movement history of salt. The supra-salt section along this portion of the Sigsbee Escarpment contains evidence for active deformation in the form of normal faults with seafloor offset. In the study area, all of the faults on and above the escarpment are extensional, even though the salt is translating seaward and there are some buckle folds above the salt sheet indicating regional contractional strain. Although numerous models of propagating salt sheets have been published, we find that the Atlantis and Mad Dog data fit the "salt glacier" or "tank tread" model best. These models imply that the salt is flowing under gravitational forcing from above, that the supra-salt section is not in compression, and that the basal traction of the salt sheet leads to the supra-salt section flowing over the "tank tread" of the escarpment front. Both normal faults in the supra-salt section and seaward dipping beds above the frontal salt monocline can provide pre-existing and preferential failure planes for slumping at the escarpment front. These dip-slope conditions control the slumping in the shallow-seated slope failure portions of the escarpment at both the southwest Mad Dog and northeast Atlantis field areas. In the amphitheatre-shaped deep seated slump regions of central/northeast Mad Dog and southwest Atlantis, a regional seismic reflector (Horizon 25), interpreted to be a sand-rich unit, projects to the base of the slump headscarps. The orphology of the deep seated slumps - steep headwalls, relatively flat bases, and linear side walls - suggests that they are forming from internally driven failure. In situ pore pressure measurements support this model, and field work from the Caspian supports a model whereby exposure of the sand horizon at the escarpment face leads to its draining, and the creation of an effective seal to the overpressured section below.
Comparatively few studies have been carried out on air weapon injuries yet there are significant number of injuries and fatalities caused by these low power weapons because of their availability and the public perception that because they need no licence they are assumed to be safe. In this study ballistic gel was tested by Bloom and rupture tests to check on consistency of production. Two series of tests were carried out firing into unclothed gel blocks and blocks loosely covered by different items of clothing to simulate attire (tee shirt, jeans, fleece, and jacket). The damage to the clothing caused by different shaped pellets when fired at different ranges was examined. The apparent hole size was affected by the shape of pellet (round, pointed, flat and hollow point) and whether damage was predominantly caused by pushing yarn to one side or by laceration of the yarn through cutting or tearing. The study also compared penetration into clothed gel and unclothed gel under identical conditions, and loose clothing greatly reduced penetration. With loose clothing at 9.1 m range clothing reduced penetration to 50-70% of the penetration of unclothed gel but at 18.3m range only 7 out of 36 shots penetrated the gel. This cannot be accounted for by the energy loss at the longer range (3-7% reduction from 9.1 m to 18.3 m range in unclothed gels) and it is suggested that impulse may have a role to play. Shots that did not penetrate the gel were used to estimate the possible stopping time for the pellet (around 75 μs) and force (1700 N) or stress (100 MPa) required to bring the pellet to a halt. Even with these low energy projectiles, cloth fibres were entrained in the gel showing the potential for penetration of the body and subsequent infection.
Background: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and patient survival in end-stage kidney disease is not well understood and has been the subject of much debate over recent years. Methods: This study used a latent class joint modeling approach to identify latent groups that underpinned associations between patterns of change in BMI during hemodialysis and two competing events: transplant and death without transplant. We included all adult patients who initiated chronic hemodialysis treatment in Australia or New Zealand between 2005 and 2014. Results: There were 16,414 patients included in the analyses; 2,365 (14%) received a transplant, 5,639 (34%) died before transplant, and 8,410 (51%) were administratively censored. Our final model characterized patients based on five broad patterns of weight change (BMI trajectories): “late BMI decline” (about 2 years after commencing hemodialysis); “rapid BMI decline” (immediately after commencing hemodialysis); “stable and normal/overweight BMI”; “stable and morbidly obese BMI”; or “increasing BMI.” Mortality rates were highest among classes with declining BMI, and the timing of weight loss coincided with the timing of increases in mortality. Within the two stable BMI classes, death rates were slightly lower among the morbidly obese. Conclusions: The findings from this descriptive analysis suggest a paradoxical association between obesity and better survival. However, they also suggest that the shape of the BMI trajectory is important, with stable BMI trajectories being beneficial. Future research should be aimed at understanding the causes of weight changes during dialysis, to determine whether there could be strategies to improve patient survival.
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