Modelling the Sustainability of Forest Production and Yield for a Changing and Uncertain Future

Kimmins, J. P.

doi:10.5558/tfc66271-3

Cited by 46 publications

(20 citation statements)

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“…They may be an appropriate method for predicting short-term yield for time scales over which historical growth conditions are not expected to change significantly. However, empirical growth and yield models are not robust, for example, for analysing the consequences of climatic changes or environmental stress (Kimmins, 1990;Shugart et al, 1992).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Predicting the potential effects of future changes in global environment (such as climate, land-use, fire disturbance, and forest harvesting) on the sustainability of forest ecosystems will require forest resource managers to make use of forest simulation models (Peng, 2000a). Basic approaches to modelling forest growth and C dynamics include empirical, mechanistic, and hybrid forest simulation models, each with their advantages and limitations (Landsberg, 1986;Kimmins, 1990;Mohren et al, 1994;Landsberg and Coops, 1999;Mäkelä et al, 2000;Peng, 2000a,b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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TRIPLEX: a generic hybrid model for predicting forest growth and carbon and nitrogen dynamics

Peng

Liu

Dang

et al. 2002

Ecological Modelling

190

120

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

TRIPLEX: a generic hybrid model for predicting forest growth and carbon and nitrogen dynamics

Peng

Liu

Dang

et al. 2002

Ecological Modelling

190

120

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“…Despite all these positive features, because of the inherent assumption of constant growing conditions, empirical models have limited predictive capability when changes occur in the tree growing environment, management conditions, or disturbance regimes (Kimmins 1990, Monserud 2003, Pinjuv et al 2006). This limitation is caused by the fact that empirical models rely on historical data in their elaboration (Johnsen et al 2001, Landsberg 2003a.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using JABOWA-3 for forest growth and yield predictions under diverse forest conditions of Nova Scotia, Canada

Ashraf

Bourque

MacLean

et al. 2012

The Forestry Chronicle

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Empirical growth and yield models developed from historical data are commonly used in developing long-term strategic forest management plans. Use of these models rests on an assumption that there will be no future change in the tree growing environment. However, major impacts on forest growing conditions are expected to occur with climate change. As a result, there is a pressing need for tools capable of incorporating outcomes of climate change in their predictions of forest growth and yield. Process-based models have this capability and may, therefore, help to satisfy this requirement. In this paper, we evaluate the suitability of an ecological, individual-tree-based model (JABOWA-3) in generating forest growth and yield projections for diverse forest conditions across Nova Scotia, Canada. Model prediction accuracy was analyzed statistically by comparing modelled with observed basal area and merchantable volume changes for 35 permanent sample plots (PSPs) measured over periods of at least 25 years. Generally, modelled basal area and merchantable volume agreed fairly well with observed data, yielding coefficients of determination (r 2 ) of 0.97 and 0.94 and model efficiencies (ME) of 0.96 and 0.93, respectively. A Chi-square test was performed to assess model accuracy with respect to changes in species composition. We found that 83% of species-growth trajectories based on measured basal area were adequately modelled with JABOWA-3 (P > 0.9). Model-prediction accuracy, however, was substantially reduced for those PSPs altered by some level of disturbance. In general, JABOWA-3 is much better at providing forest yield predictions, subject to the availability of suitable climatic and soil information.Key words: forest model, growth and yield predictions, individual-tree-based model, model-accuracy assessment, statistical-performance indicators RÉSUMÉOn se sert couramment de modèles empiriques de croissance élaborés à partir de données historiques pour faire des plans stratégiques d'aménagement forestier à long terme. L'utilisation de ces modèles repose sur l'hypothèse que le milieu de croissance ne changera pas dans le futur. Or, on s'attend à ce que les changements climatiques modifient considérablement les conditions de croissance en forêt. Il y a donc un besoin urgent de mettre au point des outils capable de tenir compte les effets dus aux changements climatiques dans la prévision de la croissance et du rendement en forêt. Les modèles de procédés ont cette capacité et peuvent donc être d'une aide précieuse à cette fin. Dans cet article, nous évaluons la pertinence d'un modèle écologique par pied d'arbre (JABOWA-3) pour effectuer des prévisions de croissance et de rendement en forêt dans diverses conditions forestières de la Nouvelle-Écosse, au Canada. On a évalué de façon statistique la préci-sion des prévisions obtenues avec ce modèle en comparant les changements de surface terrière et de volume marchand à partir de 35 placettes permanentes (PEP) mesurées sur des périodes d'au moins 25 ans. De façon génér...

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“…In resource management, it is necessary not only to identify patterns (e.g., how many forest stands of what age and species composition are present in a management area) but also to understand how these patterns were formed and to predict how they will change in the future (Kimmins 1990). In the case of environmentally dependent processes, physiology research will often provide such understanding and will be useful in making predictions.…”

Section: Why Should Forest Managers Support Physiology Research At Mumentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Canadian forestry need physiology research?

Colombo¹,

Parker²

1999

The Forestry Chronicle

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. Colombo1 and W.C. ~a r k e r ' IntroductionThe need for intensive forest management practices that are ecologically sustainable is growing. However, the importance of plant physiology research, which is critical to developing such practices, continues to be overlooked and undervalued. Physiology is the branch of biology dealing with the function of organisms, either singly or in communities, or the function of the tissues, organs, or cells of an organism (Salisbury and Ross 1985). Understanding plant physiology in relation to environment may appear to be a logical prerequisite for sound forest management. Some 50 years ago, the respected plant physiologist Paul Kramer expressed concern that the potential productivity of North American forests would not be realized because intensive forest management would be hindered by physiological obstacles inhibiting the growth of forest plantations (Kramer 1948). He felt these obstacles would develop because foresters were generally unaware of the contributions plant physiology could make to forestry. What is more, few plant physiologists investigating commercial tree species had forestry training, so their ability to recognize and work on problems important to foresters was poor. He reiterated these concerns several times (Kramer 1956(Kramer , 1986). In our view, plant physiology continues to fall short of its potential contributions to forestry.Historically, Canadian forestry research has focused on forestry practices promoting low cost, high volume timber production, but in the past decade forestry research has evolved towards broader land management issues, especially those concerning ecosystem sustainability (Canadian Council of Forest Ministers 1995). However, as was the case with intensive forest management in the 1940s, the potential contributions of plant physiology to today's priorities have not generally been recognized. Government-directed research has largely shifted to address non-timber production issues, yet Canadian forest industry continues to rely on many forest management practices that are based on experience and empirical trials rather than a sound understanding of physiology.Physiology research can support the development of both ecologically sustainable and intensive forest management practices (i.e., practices increasing wood supply without causing long-term degradation of forest health or biodiversity), helping the Canadian forest industry meet its dual ecological and economic goals. A mixture of research in plant physiology and silviculture is essential for developing predictive, process-based models, which in turn will provide the foundation for the development of ecologically sustainable forest management practices. In this paper we examine some recent cases where plant physiology research has contributed to forestry, and explore the need for plant physiology research in the development of sustainable and intensive forest management. ' Physiology from the Molecule to the LandscapeTo develop intensive forest management and ecologically sustain...

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Modelling the Sustainability of Forest Production and Yield for a Changing and Uncertain Future

Cited by 46 publications

References 20 publications

TRIPLEX: a generic hybrid model for predicting forest growth and carbon and nitrogen dynamics

TRIPLEX: a generic hybrid model for predicting forest growth and carbon and nitrogen dynamics

Using JABOWA-3 for forest growth and yield predictions under diverse forest conditions of Nova Scotia, Canada

Does Canadian forestry need physiology research?

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