Modelling the retreat of Grosser Aletschgletscher, Switzerland, in a changing climate

Jouvet, Guillaume; Huss, Matthias; Funk, Martin; Blatter, Heinz

doi:10.3189/002214311798843359

Cited by 123 publications

(173 citation statements)

References 61 publications

(102 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

153

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Giesen and Oerlemans (2010) imposed future climate scenarios on a surface energy balance mass balance model coupled to an SIA model, suggesting that Hardangerjøkulen will vanish almost completely before 2100. Similar conclusions have been reached for glaciers in Iceland (Aðalgeirs-dóttir et al, 2006(Aðalgeirs-dóttir et al, , 2011Guðmundsson et al, 2009), French Alps (Le Meur et al, 2007, Swiss Alps (Jouvet et al, 2011) and Canadian Rocky Mountains (Clarke et al, 2015). Given the aforementioned temperature and precipitation sensitivities for Hardangerjøkulen, our estimate of −2.2 m w.e.…”

Section: Mass Balance Sensitivity and Hysteresissupporting

confidence: 72%

Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Understanding of long-term dynamics of glaciers and ice caps is vital to assess their recent and future changes, yet few long-term reconstructions using ice flow models exist. Here we present simulations of the maritime Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in Norway from the mid-Holocene through the Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present day, using a numerical ice flow model combined with glacier and climate reconstructions.In our simulation, under a linear climate forcing, we find that Hardangerjøkulen grows from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene to its maximum extent during the LIA in a nonlinear, spatially asynchronous fashion. During its fastest stage of growth (2300-1300 BP), the ice cap triples its volume in less than 1000 years. The modeled ice cap extent and outlet glacier length changes from the LIA until today agree well with available observations. Volume and area for Hardangerjøkulen and several of its outlet glaciers vary out-of-phase for several centuries during the Holocene. This volume-area disequilibrium varies in time and from one outlet glacier to the next, illustrating that linear relations between ice extent, volume and glacier proxy records, as generally used in paleoclimatic reconstructions, have only limited validity.We also show that the present-day ice cap is highly sensitive to surface mass balance changes and that the effect of the ice cap hypsometry on the mass balancealtitude feedback is essential to this sensitivity. A mass balance shift by +0.5 m w.e. relative to the mass balance from the last decades almost doubles ice volume, while a decrease of 0.2 m w.e. or more induces a strong mass balance-altitude feedback and makes Hardangerjøkulen disappear entirely. Furthermore, once disappeared, an additional +0.1 m w.e. relative to the present mass balance is needed to regrow the ice cap to its present-day extent. We expect that other ice caps with comparable geometry in, for example, Norway, Iceland, Patagonia and peripheral Greenland may behave similarly, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change.

show abstract

Section: Mass Balance Sensitivity and Hysteresissupporting

confidence: 72%

Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Moreover, insufficiently understood feedback effects and processes not included in the applied model approach, such as a decrease in glacier surface albedo (Oerlemans et al, 2009), the thickening of supraglacial debris (e.g. Jouvet et al, 2011), or the response of polythermal ice bodies at high elevation in the Alps (see Hoelzle et al, 2011) might impact on modelled mass balances. Additional research is required to strengthen the process understanding for reducing these uncertainties.…”

Section: Uncertainty Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extrapolating glacier mass balance to the mountain-range scale: the European Alps 1900–2100

2012

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. This study addresses the extrapolation of in-situ glacier mass balance measurements to the mountain-range scale and aims at deriving time series of area-averaged mass balance and ice volume change for all glaciers in the European Alps for the period 1900-2100. Long-term mass balance series for 50 Swiss glaciers based on a combination of field data and modelling, and WGMS data for glaciers in Austria, France and Italy are used. A complete glacier inventory is available for the year 2003. Mass balance extrapolation is performed based on (1) arithmetic averaging, (2) glacier hypsometry, and (3) multiple regression. Given a sufficient number of data series, multiple regression with variables describing glacier geometry performs best in reproducing observed spatial mass balance variability. Future mass changes are calculated by driving a combined model for mass balance and glacier geometry with GCM ensembles based on four emission scenarios. Mean glacier mass balance in the European Alps is −0.31 ± 0.04 m w.e. a −1 in 1900-2011, and −1 m w.e. a −1 over the last decade. Total ice volume change since 1900 is −96 ± 13 km 3 ; annual values vary between −5.9 km 3 (1947) and +3.9 km 3 (1977). Mean mass balances are expected to be around −1.3 m w.e. a −1 by 2050. Model results indicate a glacier area reduction of 4-18 % relative to 2003 for the end of the 21st century.

show abstract

“…This is described by a continuous decrease in f debris of 0.002 yr À1 . The outward propagation of debris coverage in space and time is simulated according to an approach proposed by Jouvet et al (2011). Feedback effects due to ice cliffs and ponds that increase melt in the debris-covered area (Benn et al, 2012) are not included; our experiment thus represents an upper bound for the debris-cover effect.…”

Section: Experiments X: Debris Coveragementioning

confidence: 99%

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

Huss

Zemp

Joerg

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrology

Self Cite

103

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Glacier response to a changing climate and its impact on runoff is understood in general terms, but model-based projections are affected by considerable uncertainties. They originate from the driving climate model, input data quality, and simplifications in the glacio-hydrological model and hamper the reliability of the simulations. Here, an integrative assessment of the uncertainty in 21st century glacier runoff is provided based on experiments using the Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM) applied to the catchment of Findelengletscher, Switzerland. GERM is calibrated and validated in a multi-objective approach and is run using nine Regional Climate Models (RCMs) until 2100. Among others, the hydrological impacts of the RCM downscaling procedure, the winter snow accumulation, the surface albedo and the calculation of ice melt and glacier retreat are investigated. All experiments indicate rapid glacier wastage and a transient runoff increase followed by reduced melt season discharge. However, major uncertainties in, e.g., glacier area loss (À100% to À63%) and the change in annual runoff (À57% to +25% relative to today) by 2100 are found. The impact of model assumptions on changes in August runoff is even higher (À94% to À5%). The spread in RCM results accounts for 20-50% of the overall uncertainty in modeled discharge. Initial ice thickness, the amount and spatial distribution of winter snow and the glacier retreat model have the largest effect on the projections, whereas the RCM downscaling procedure, calibration data quality and the melt model (energy balance vs. degree-day approach) are of secondary importance.

show abstract

Modelling the retreat of Grosser Aletschgletscher, Switzerland, in a changing climate

Cited by 123 publications

References 61 publications

Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change

Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change

Extrapolating glacier mass balance to the mountain-range scale: the European Alps 1900–2100

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About