Modelling the regional impact of climate change on the suitability of the establishment of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) in Serbia

Petrić, Mina; Lalić, Branislava; Ducheyne, Els; Djurdjević, Vladimir; Petrić, Dušan

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1946-8

Cited by 18 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Given the climate of a region, one can use a mechanistic niche model to predict the geographic range of a species (Kearney et al 2008;Buckley et al 2010;Chapman et al 2017). In principle, then, such models can tell us where species can live in future climates (Kearney et al 2010b;Chapman et al 2017;Petric et al 2017). However, researchers recognize that current models still contain glaring oversimplifications that likely preclude accurate predictions for the distant future (Sinclair et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oxygen supply did not affect how lizards responded to thermal stress

Camacho

VandenBrooks

Riley

et al. 2018

Integrative Zoology

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Zoologists rely on mechanistic niche models of behavioral thermoregulation to understand how animals respond to climate change. These models predict that species will need to disperse to higher altitudes to persist in a warmer world. However, thermal stress and thus thermoregulatory behavior may depend on atmospheric oxygen as well as environmental temperatures. Severe hypoxia causes animals to prefer lower body temperatures, which could be interpreted as evidence that oxygen supply limits heat tolerance. Such a constraint could prevent animals from successfully dispersing to high elevations during climate change. Still, an effect of oxygen supply on preferred body temperature has only been observed when oxygen concentrations fall far below levels experienced in nature. To see whether animals perceive greater thermal stress at an ecologically relevant level of hypoxia, we studied the thermoregulatory behavior of lizards (Sceloporus tristichus) exposed to oxygen concentrations of 13% and 21% (equivalent to pO at 4000 m and 0 m, respectively). Also, we exposed lizards to 29% oxygen to see whether they would accept a higher body temperature at hyperoxia than at normoxia. At each oxygen level, we measured a behavioral response to heat stress known as the voluntary thermal maximum: the temperature at which a warming animal sought a cool refuge. Oxygen concentration had no discernable effect on the voluntary thermal maximum, suggesting that lizards experience thermal stress similarly at all three levels of oxygen (13%, 21%, and 29%). Future research should focus on thermoregulatory behaviors under ecologically relevant levels of hypoxia.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oxygen supply did not affect how lizards responded to thermal stress

Camacho

VandenBrooks

Riley

et al. 2018

Integrative Zoology

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“…By this means, as Vertov put it, 'life-facts' were turned into 'film-facts'. 33 For Rouch, on the other hand, cinéma-vérité was achieved not by the transformation of the perception of the world by means of the camera but rather by the transformation of the world itself, as the camera, by its mere presence, provoked film subjects into performances that were different from their everyday behaviour, and which could thereby reveal their innermost thoughts and dreams. Once back in the edit suite, in total contrast to Vertov, Rouch sought to keep the further transformation of these revelatory epiphanies to a minimum.…”

Section: Cinéma-véritémentioning

confidence: 99%

Jean Rouch

Henley¹

2020

Beyond Observation

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who had some engagement with academic anthropology but who then developed their careers largely outside academic life. Rouch was unique in that, having studied anthropology to the doctoral level, he then held an academic post throughout his career and made film-making central to his professional identity. This was something that no leading anthropologist had done before, nor, for that matter, have many been able to do since, either in France or in the English-speaking world, at least not to anything like the same degree. Rouch was a person of great energy and imagination, but his ability to dedicate so much of his time to film-making was made possible by a particular set of institutional circumstances. Early on in his career, in 1948, when he was 30 and still a doctoral student, he was appointed to a position at the principal academic research institute in France, the CNRS. By this time, he was already closely associated with the Musée de l'Homme, which, in 1952, became the seat of the newly created Comité du film ethnographique. Rouch was appointed its general secretary, a position that he would retain for the rest of his life: the Comité would become the principal vehicle through which he would conduct his professional affairs, including the production of most of his films. Apart from a brief interlude in 1951-53, when he was temporarily expelled for failing to complete his doctoral thesis 8.1 Jean Rouch in 1954 on the Gold Coast (now Ghana), aged 36. He is using the Bell & Howell Filmo 70 that he bought in the Paris Flea Market in 1946.

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“…Climate simulations used in the study are the result of the Eta Belgrade University (EBU)-Princeton Ocean Model (POM) model runs for the A2 scenario over the 2001-2030 and 2071-2100 integration periods [43] for 7 selected sites ( Table 1) [50]. More details about model integrations and performed bias correction for the Serbia and Montenegro regions can be found in papers Mihailović et al [51] and Petrić et al [42]. The POM model was set over the Mediterranean Sea without the Black Sea; for other open seas, the sea surface temperature from the GCM was used as a bottom boundary condition.…”

Section: Global Circulation Model and Regional Climate Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies that examine the projected climate parameters and their influence on the spread of Ae. albopictus point to a pronounced northward spread of the vector and reduced suitability in the current hotspots in southern Europe due to warmer and drier summers, as well as a vertical shift to higher altitudes [39][40][41][42]. There is already extensive work on mapping the global risk for Ae.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field Sampling

et al. 2018

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Aedes albopictus has become established in many parts of Europe since its introduction at the end of the 20th century. It can vector a range of arboviruses, of which Chikungunya and Dengue are most significant for Europe. An analysis of the expected climate change and the related shift in Köppen zones for Montenegro and impact on the establishment of Ae. albopictus was conducted. Outputs of a mechanistic Aedes albopictus model were validated by 2245 presence/absence records collected from 237 different sites between 2001 and 2014. Finally, model-based sampling was designed and performed at 48 sites in 2015, in a previously unexplored northern part of Montenegro, and results were validated. The Eta Belgrade University (EBU)-Princeton Ocean Model (POM) regional climate model was used with the A2 emissions scenario for the 2001–2030 and 2071–2100 integration periods. The results point to a significant increase in suitability for the mosquito and a vertical shift to higher altitudes by the end of the century. The model showed excellent results with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.94. This study provides a tool for prioritizing surveillance efforts (model-based surveillance), especially when resources are limited. This is the first published analysis of Climate Change that incorporates observations from the national synoptic grid and the subsequent impact on Ae. albopictus in Montenegro.

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Modelling the regional impact of climate change on the suitability of the establishment of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) in Serbia

Cited by 18 publications

References 19 publications

Oxygen supply did not affect how lizards responded to thermal stress

Oxygen supply did not affect how lizards responded to thermal stress

Jean Rouch

Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field Sampling

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