Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field Sampling

Abstract

Aedes albopictus has become established in many parts of Europe since its introduction at the end of the 20th century. It can vector a range of arboviruses, of which Chikungunya and Dengue are most significant for Europe. An analysis of the expected climate change and the related shift in Köppen zones for Montenegro and impact on the establishment of Ae. albopictus was conducted. Outputs of a mechanistic Aedes albopictus model were validated by 2245 presence/absence records collected from 237 different sites between 2001 and 2014. Finally, model-based sampling was designed and performed at 48 sites in 2015, in a previously unexplored northern part of Montenegro, and results were validated. The Eta Belgrade University (EBU)-Princeton Ocean Model (POM) regional climate model was used with the A2 emissions scenario for the 2001–2030 and 2071–2100 integration periods. The results point to a significant increase in suitability for the mosquito and a vertical shift to higher altitudes by the end of the century. The model showed excellent results with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.94. This study provides a tool for prioritizing surveillance efforts (model-based surveillance), especially when resources are limited. This is the first published analysis of Climate Change that incorporates observations from the national synoptic grid and the subsequent impact on Ae. albopictus in Montenegro.

Climate Variables Related to the Incidence of Human Leishmaniosis in Montenegro in Southeastern Europe during Seven Decades (1945–2014)

“…Climate changes are associated with human migrations into the regions where leishmaniosis is endemic, and due to droughts and/or floods, they can cause famine which may disturb the human immune status [2]. In accordance with the proposed climate changes in the Montenegro area is the recent publication predicting an increase in temperature over the decades to come, which would impact the occurrence of vector-mediated transmissions and cause an increase in disease prevalence [15].…”

Predicting the success of an invader: Niche shift versus niche conservatism

“…Accordingly, we detected adaptive genetic variation in relation to precipitation during cold periods in European populations, suggesting postintroduction adaptive changes to overcome these unsuitable environmental conditions. For example, the winters experienced in Albania and Montenegro are cold and wet (Petrić et al, ), with an average of 124 mm of precipitation in January compared to an average of 52 mm for other locations in Europe for the same range of minimum temperatures during the coldest month, and populations in these regions show the highest proportion of mutations in genes detected as putatively under divergent selection (Figure ). One of the adaptive loci is located in a gene encoding a heat‐shock protein (Hsp) homologue.…”

Autonomous Wireless Sensor Networks in an IPM Spatial Decision Support System

“…To look at the climatic suitability for the establishment of the invasive mosquito species Ae. albopictus in Belgium we employed a mechanistic Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis model following previous work of Petrić et al [39,40]. This model consists of sigma fuzzy membership functions used to map the suitability corresponding to climatic thresholds limiting the ability of the vector to overwinter and reproduce during the active season.…”