Modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of Stipa tianschanica in the eastern Eurasian Steppe under multiple climate change scenarios

Zhu, Yiping; Wei, Wei; Li, Hao; Wang, Baizhu; Yang, Xiaohui; Liu, Yanshu

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2018.e00501

Cited by 27 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…We selected the best model with the highest AUC (Area unde the receiver operating characteristic curve) value. The remaining model settings were set to the same as those in the initial model (Kumar & Stohlgren, 2009; Zhu et al, 2018).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid,Diaphorina citri(Kuwayama), in China using the MaxEnt model

Wang

Yang

Luo³

et al. 2019

PeerJ

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Background Citrus huanglongbing (HLB) is a destructive disease of citrus and a major threat to the citrus industry around the world. This disease accounts for substantial economic losses in China every year. Diaphorina citri Kuwayama is one of the major vectors by which citrus HLB is spread under natural conditions in China. Research is needed to identify the geographic distribution of D. citri and its major areas of occurrence and to formulate measures for early warning, monitoring, and control of this pest and citrus HLB. Methods In this study, the ecological niche modelling software MaxEnt (maximum entropy model) was combined with ArcGIS (a geographic information system) to predict the potential geographic distribution of D. citri in China. Key environmental factors and the appropriate ranges of their values were also investigated. Results Our results show that the training data provided a good forecast (AUCmean = 0.988). The highly suitable areas for D. citri in China are mainly concentrated to the south of the Yangtze River, and the total area is 139.83 × 104 km2. The area of the moderately suitable areas is 27.71 × 104 km2, with a narrower distribution than that of the highly suitable area. The important environmental factors affecting the distribution of D. citri were min temperature of coldest month, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation of wettest quarter, mean temperature of warmest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, max temperature of warmest month, and temperature seasonality. These results provide a valuable theoretical basis for risk assessments and control of D. citri. Discussion The predicted results showed that there were highly suitable areas for D. citri in Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, and Jiangsu. Therefore, the possibility exists for the further spread of D. citri in China in the future. Extreme temperature variables, especially the min temperature of the coldest month, play an important role in the distribution of D. citri and are most closely related to the distribution of D. citri.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid,Diaphorina citri(Kuwayama), in China using the MaxEnt model

Wang

Yang

Luo³

et al. 2019

PeerJ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…We selected these GCMs as they are among the most accurate and appropriate models currently used to simulate the effect of global climate response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations on biodiversity, and they were used to provide accurate ENMs for Europe in previous studies (e.g. Goberville et al 2015, Zhu et al 2018). RCPs are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its Fifth Assessment Report.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generalists yet different: distributional responses to climate change may vary in opportunistic bat species sharing similar ecological traits

et al. 2021

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Climate change is among the key anthropogenic factors affecting species’ distribution, with important consequences for conservation. However, little is known concerning the consequences of distributional changes on community‐level interactions, and responses by generalist species might have many ecological implications in terms of novel interactions with resident species. In this study, we applied Ecological Niche Models and niche analysis to three generalist bat species, Hypsugo savii, Pipistrellus kuhlii, and Pipistrellus pipistrellus, which share similar ecological traits and are sympatric in parts of their ranges. Our aims were to investigate how predicted climate change will affect species’ distribution and to analyse the degree of climatic niche overlap between the three species, in both the current and the future scenarios (2050 and 2070; Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Temperatures were the most important predictors influencing species’ range expansion in future. According to our models, Pipistrellus kuhlii and Hypsugo savii may expand their geographic ranges towards northern latitudes, whereas the geographic range of the less thermophilous Pipistrellus will shift northwards, resulting in it losing the southern portion in Europe. The already considerable degree of climatic niche overlap between the three species will increase further in future. On the basis of our findings, within the new areas potentially colonised by all three species in future, alterations in community‐level balance might occur, bringing about effects that are only partially predictable. In view of this, we highlight the need for further research and improved monitoring of bat communities in areas that are predicted to be particularly vulnerable to climate change.

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Section: Modelling Methods and Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Peer Review #1 of "Predicting the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama), in China using the MaxEnt model (v0.1)"

2019

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Background. Citrus huanglongbing (HLB) is a destructive disease of citrus and a major threat to the citrus industry around the world. This disease accounts for substantial economic losses in China every year. Diaphorina citri Kuwayama is one of the major vectors by which citrus HLB is spread under natural conditions in China. Research is needed to identify the geographic distribution of D. citri and its major areas of occurrence and to formulate measures for early warning, monitoring and control of this pest and citrus HLB. Methods. In this study, the ecological niche modelling software MaxEnt (maximum entropy model) was combined with ArcGIS (a geographic information system) to predict the potential geographic distribution of D. citri in China. Key environmental factors and the appropriate ranges of their values were also investigated. Results. Our results show that the training data provided a good forecast (AUC mean = 0.988). The highly suitable areas for D. citri in China are mainly concentrated to the south of the Yangtze River, and the total area is 139.83×10 4 km 2. The area of the moderately suitable areas is 27.71×10 4 km 2 , with a narrower distribution than that of the highly suitable area. The important environmental factors affecting the distribution of D. citri were Min Temperature of Coldest Month, Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter, Precipitation of Warmest Quarter, Max Temperature of Warmest Month, and Temperature Seasonality. These results provide a valuable theoretical basis for risk assessments and control of D. citri. Discussion. The predicted results showed that there were highly suitable areas for D. citri in Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui and Jiangsu. Therefore, the possibility exists for the further spread of D. citri in China in the future. Extreme temperature variables, especially the Min temperature of the coldest month, play an important role in the distribution of D. citri and are most closely related to the distribution of D. citri.

show abstract

Modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of Stipa tianschanica in the eastern Eurasian Steppe under multiple climate change scenarios

Cited by 27 publications

References 87 publications

Predicting the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid,Diaphorina citri(Kuwayama), in China using the MaxEnt model

Predicting the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid,Diaphorina citri(Kuwayama), in China using the MaxEnt model

Generalists yet different: distributional responses to climate change may vary in opportunistic bat species sharing similar ecological traits

Peer Review #1 of "Predicting the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama), in China using the MaxEnt model (v0.1)"

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