Modelling the evolution of Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland, since the Little Ice Age and into the future

Zekollari, Harry; Fürst, Johannes J.; Huybrechts, Philippe

doi:10.3189/2014jog14j053

Cited by 62 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 73 publications

(115 reference statements)

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“…Moreover, we have provided a plausible ice cap history over several thousand years as the starting point for our simulations from the LIA until today, in contrast to several previous studies (e.g., Giesen and Oerlemans, 2010;Aðalgeirs-dóttir et al, 2011;Zekollari et al, 2014) that reach desired initial LIA conditions by perturbing a present-day ice cap.…”

Section: Holocene To Lia Buildupmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, long-term reconstructions using ice flow models are rare. Most existing quantitative modeling studies of GICs are restricted to timescales of decades (e.g., Leysinger-Vieli and Gudmundsson, 2004;Raper and Braithwaite, 2009) or centuries (Jouvet et al, 2009;Giesen and Oerlemans, 2010;Aðalgeirsdóttir et al, 2011;Zekollari et al, 2014;Zekollari and Huybrechts, 2015;Ziemen et al, 2016). Only a very limited number of studies exist for the longer timescales (e.g., Flowers et al, 2008;Laumann and Nesje, 2014).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Only a very limited number of studies exist for the longer timescales (e.g., Flowers et al, 2008;Laumann and Nesje, 2014). Studies focusing on glacier evolution since the Little Ice Age (LIA) (e.g., Giesen and Oerlemans, 2010;Aðalgeirsdóttir et al, 2011;Zekollari et al, 2014) normally perturb a present-day glacier or ice cap with a climate anomaly relative to the modern and do not explicitly consider the ice cap history preceding the LIA.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Understanding of long-term dynamics of glaciers and ice caps is vital to assess their recent and future changes, yet few long-term reconstructions using ice flow models exist. Here we present simulations of the maritime Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in Norway from the mid-Holocene through the Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present day, using a numerical ice flow model combined with glacier and climate reconstructions.In our simulation, under a linear climate forcing, we find that Hardangerjøkulen grows from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene to its maximum extent during the LIA in a nonlinear, spatially asynchronous fashion. During its fastest stage of growth (2300-1300 BP), the ice cap triples its volume in less than 1000 years. The modeled ice cap extent and outlet glacier length changes from the LIA until today agree well with available observations. Volume and area for Hardangerjøkulen and several of its outlet glaciers vary out-of-phase for several centuries during the Holocene. This volume-area disequilibrium varies in time and from one outlet glacier to the next, illustrating that linear relations between ice extent, volume and glacier proxy records, as generally used in paleoclimatic reconstructions, have only limited validity.We also show that the present-day ice cap is highly sensitive to surface mass balance changes and that the effect of the ice cap hypsometry on the mass balancealtitude feedback is essential to this sensitivity. A mass balance shift by +0.5 m w.e. relative to the mass balance from the last decades almost doubles ice volume, while a decrease of 0.2 m w.e. or more induces a strong mass balance-altitude feedback and makes Hardangerjøkulen disappear entirely. Furthermore, once disappeared, an additional +0.1 m w.e. relative to the present mass balance is needed to regrow the ice cap to its present-day extent. We expect that other ice caps with comparable geometry in, for example, Norway, Iceland, Patagonia and peripheral Greenland may behave similarly, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change.

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Section: Holocene To Lia Buildupmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change

et al. 2017

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“…Besides, it includes simplifications compared to models focused on a particular, well-observed glacier (e.g. Zekollari et al, 2014) and is therefore computationally efficient.…”

Section: The Open Global Glacier Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing the consistency between changes in simulated climate and Alpine glacier length over the past millennium

et al. 2018

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Abstract.It is standard to compare climate model results covering the past millennium and reconstructions based on various archives in order to test the ability of models to reproduce the observed climate variability. Up to now, glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically in this framework even though they offer information on multidecadal to centennial variations complementary to other records. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be directly linked to the simulated climate. However, climate model skill can be measured by comparing the glacier length computed by a glacier model driven by simulated temperature and precipitation to observed glacier length variations. This is done here using the version 1.0 of the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) forced by fields derived from a range of simulations performed with global climate models over the past millennium. The glacier model is applied to a set of Alpine glaciers for which observations cover at least the 20th century. The observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations driven by the various climate model results, showing a general consistency with this ensemble of simulations. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the results are much more sensitive to the simulated climate than to OGGM parameters. This confirms that the simulations of glacier length can be used to evaluate the climate model performance, in particular the simulated summer temperatures that largely control the glacier changes in our region of interest. Simulated glacier length is strongly influenced by the internal variability in the system, putting limitations on the model-data comparison for some variables like the trends over the 20th century in the Alps. Nevertheless, comparison of glacier length fluctuations on longer timescales, for instance between the 18th century and the late 20th century, appear less influenced by the natural variability and indicate clear differences in the behaviour of the various climate models.

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“…Due to their delayed response to changed climatic conditions, they are still out of balance with the current climate and would continue to recede throughout the century even without any further climatic changes (e.g., Marzeion et al, 2014;Jouvet et al, 2011;Zekollari et al, 2014). Further rising temperatures will only amplify this process, resulting in a total F. Hanzer et al: Cryospheric and hydrological climate change impacts in the Ötztal Alps glacier volume reduction in the European Alps of 65-100 % by 2100 according to several global-scale studies (Bliss et al, 2014;Huss and Hock, 2015;Marzeion et al, 2012;Radić et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

Hanzer

Förster

Nemec

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this -to date -the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km 2 , 862-3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11-165 km 2 ) and glacierization (24-77 %).Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0-20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25-80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4-20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century with simulated decreases (compared to 1997-2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071-2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

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Modelling the evolution of Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland, since the Little Ice Age and into the future

Cited by 62 publications

References 73 publications

Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change

Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change

Testing the consistency between changes in simulated climate and Alpine glacier length over the past millennium

Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

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