Modelling the effects of cross-sectoral water allocation schemes in Europe

Wimmer, Florian; Audsley, E.; Malsy, Marcus; Savin, Cristina; Dunford, R. W.; Harrison, Paula A.; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Flörke, Martina

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1161-9

Cited by 31 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Impacts resulting from future socio-economic change have been shown, in some cases, to be greater than impacts based on future climate change alone 2,3,4,5,6 . It is often through the socio-economic drivers that cross-sectoral impacts become evident, as policy effects in one sector can have indirect effects in others, and these effects are lost in single sector studies.…”

Section: States: "Little Information Is Available On Integrated and Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The IAP is a spatiallyexplicit modelling platform that operates on a 10 x 10 minute grid for the countries of the European Union plus Norway and Switzerland. It has been thoroughly validated (Supplementary Table 1) and widely applied in climate change impact 2,4,6,14,15 , adaptation 16 and vulnerability 17 assessment, in robust policy analysis 18 , and has been tested extensively through model sensitivity 19 and uncertainty analysis 20,21 . It was applied with and without coupling of the individual sectoral models for a number of scenario experiments for the 2050s that included different SRES emissions scenarios 22 , climate change models 23 and the socio-economic storylines underlying the SRES scenarios 22 .…”

Section: States: "Little Information Is Available On Integrated and Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

et al. 2016

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Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

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Section: States: "Little Information Is Available On Integrated and Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: States: "Little Information Is Available On Integrated and Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

et al. 2016

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“…For example, the IAP enables exploration of cross-sectoral interactions by improving simulation efficiency, and removing the very large biases associated with single-sector analyses [28]. Finally, uncertainties and sensitivities in each of the 10 models included in the IAP, and in the integrated IAP itself, have been extensively tested in previous studies [39,41,83,85,86], showing limited and non-biased uncertainties.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The IAP The impacts and risks from high-end scenarios: strategies for innovative solutions (IMPRESSIONS) IAP is an interactive web-based platform to assess climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation [28,[33][34][35][36]. The platform integrates a series of interlinked meta-models representing urban development [37,38], water resources [39], flooding [40], forests and agriculture [41], and biodiversity [42] (supplementary figure SF1 is available online at stacks. iop.org/ERL/14/104009/mmedia).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Lee

Brown

Seo

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Land-based mitigation, particularly through afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation, is an important component of the Paris Agreement to limit average global temperature increases to between 1.5°C and 2°C. However, the specific actions that would ensure sufficient carbon sequestration in forests remain unclear, as do their trade-offs against other land-based objectives. We use a regional integrated assessment model to identify the conditions under which European forests reach the extent required by mitigation targets. We compare stylised scenarios of changes in meat demand, bioenergy crop production, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. Only 42 out of 972 model simulations achieved minimum levels of food provision and forest extent without the need to change dietary preferences, but relied on crop yield improvements within Europe of at least 30%. Maintaining food imports at today's levels to avoid the potential displacement of food production and deforestation required at least a 15% yield improvement, or a drastic reduction in meat consumption (avg. 57%). The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders.

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“…The volume of water used directly in the energy sector is considerable, representing approximately 15% of global freshwater withdrawals in 2010 (Flörke et al 2013, IEA 2012. The scale of energy sector water demand exerts pressure on the global hydrological cycle (Döll et al 2012), and could cause allocation conflicts with the agricultural, manufacturing and domestic sectors in areas facing water shortages (Wimmer et al 2015). Future energy system transformations are thus important to consider when assessing the long-term sustainability of water resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy

Fricko

Parkinson

Johnson

et al. 2016

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2°C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2°C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2°C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated.

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Modelling the effects of cross-sectoral water allocation schemes in Europe

Cited by 31 publications

References 24 publications

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy

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