Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia

Abstract

Malaysia is currently facing an outbreak of COVID-19. We aim to present the first study in Malaysia to report the reproduction numbers and develop a mathematical model forecasting COVID-19 transmission by including isolation, quarantine, and movement control measures. We utilized a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model by incorporating isolation, quarantine, and movement control order (MCO) taken in Malaysia. The simulations were fitted into the Malaysian COVID-19 active case numbers, allowing approximation of parameters consisting of probability of transmission per contact (β), average number of contacts per day per case (ζ), and proportion of close-contact traced per day (q). The effective reproduction number (Rt) was also determined through this model. Our model calibration estimated that (β), (ζ), and (q) were 0.052, 25 persons, and 0.23, respectively. The (Rt) was estimated to be 1.68. MCO measures reduce the peak number of active COVID-19 cases by 99.1% and reduce (ζ) from 25 (pre-MCO) to 7 (during MCO). The flattening of the epidemic curve was also observed with the implementation of these control measures. We conclude that isolation, quarantine, and MCO measures are essential to break the transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

Path Optimization of Medical Waste Transport Routes in the Emergent Public Health Event of COVID-19: A Hybrid Optimization Algorithm Based on the Immune–Ant Colony Algorithm

“…In past studies, Balvinder Singh Gill et al studied the transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia [42], and Carol I. Blvd et al made algorithmic scheduling for the delivery of medical forces [43]. Compared to their approach, our approach is more comprehensive, practical, and provides a better picture of what delivery scheduling actually looks like when COVID-19 outbreaks occur in cities.…”

Impact of control interventions on COVID-19 population dynamics in Malaysia: a mathematical study

“…Despite the drastic, large-scale containment measures promptly implemented by the Chinese government, in a matter of a few weeks the disease had spread well outside China, and several countries have been facing with a global threat of the disease [ 2 , 6 , 7 ]. More than 210 countries of the world have been affected by COVID-19 epidemic [ 7 ], leading to its declaration as a global pandemic on 11 March 11 2020 by WHO [ 1 , 8 , 9 ].…”

“…It is transmitted from human-to-human via direct contact with contaminated surfaces and by inhaling the respiratory droplets from COVID-19-infected humans during coughing and sneezing [ 4 , 5 , 16 ]. The incubation period for COVID-19 has been reported to range between 0 and 14 days, although a longer incubation period of 25 days is found in the literature [ 8 ]. The rate of recovery from the disease infection is higher than the mortality rate, but this ratio varies from one country to another as well as region to region [ 7 ].…”

“…Currently, there is no approved vaccine or a specific anti-viral treatment therapy to prevent or manage COVID-19, although several studies on vaccine invention are ongoing [ 5 , 7 ]. Thus, control measures against the disease transmission are focusing on the use of basic non-pharmaceutical control interventions [ 8 , 17 ]. These include movement control order, early detection, good hygiene practices [ 8 ], social distancing, use of face masks in public, quarantine of the suspected exposed individuals, isolation of positive (or confirmed) cases for prompt treatment, contact tracing [ 5 , 8 , 17 ], mandatory lockdowns, avoiding crowded events, imposing a maximum number on individuals in any gathering (religious and social) [ 5 ].…”

“…Thus, control measures against the disease transmission are focusing on the use of basic non-pharmaceutical control interventions [ 8 , 17 ]. These include movement control order, early detection, good hygiene practices [ 8 ], social distancing, use of face masks in public, quarantine of the suspected exposed individuals, isolation of positive (or confirmed) cases for prompt treatment, contact tracing [ 5 , 8 , 17 ], mandatory lockdowns, avoiding crowded events, imposing a maximum number on individuals in any gathering (religious and social) [ 5 ]. Currently, the most widely used control strategy for mitigating the pandemic spread is self-quarantine, wearing face masks while in public and social distancing [ 1 ].…”