Modelling the Economy-wide Rebound Effect

Allan, Grant; Gilmartin, Michelle; McGregor, Peter; Swales, John; Turner, Karen

doi:10.1057/9780230583108_4

Cited by 15 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…This is also demonstrated by the wide variation within these models of important assumptions regarding factors such as the specification of the production function and the treatment of energy within it; the elasticity of substitution between inputs; capital closure; labour market closure; the extent to which government expenditure is recycled; methods used to simulate energy efficiency improvements; and sectors/activities targeted with efficiency improvements. Sorrell (2007) and Allan et al (2008a) provide reviews.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rebound and disinvestment effects in refined oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector

Anson¹,

Turner

2009

Energy Policy

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In this paper we use an energy-economy-environment computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Scottish economy to examine the impacts of an exogenous increase in energy augmenting technological progress in the domestic commercial Transport sector on the supply and use of energy.We focus our analysis on Scottish refined oil, as the main type of energy input used in commercial transport activity. We find that a 5% increase in energy efficiency in the commercial Transport sector leads to rebound effects in the use of oil-based energy commodities in all time periods, in the target sector and at the economy-wide level. However, our results also suggest that such an efficiency improvement may cause a contraction in capacity in the Scottish oil supply sector. This "disinvestment effect" acts as a constraint on the size of rebound effects. However, the magnitude of rebound effects and presence of the disinvestment effect in the simulations conducted here are sensitive to the specification of key elasticities of substitution in the nested production function for the target sector, particularly the substitutability of energy for non-energy intermediate inputs to production.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rebound and disinvestment effects in refined oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector

Anson¹,

Turner

2009

Energy Policy

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“…Instead, a model may be used for hindcastinghistorical patterns are reconstructed as closely as possible, using a deterministic model, in order to identify underlying causes and mechanisms. Cambridge Econometrics' MDM-E3, for example, is an energy-environment-economy (E3) model which can be used to forecast changes in economic structure, energy demand and resulting environmental emissions (Allan, Gilmartin, McGregor, Swales, & Turner, 2009), based on feedback effects from different sectors, in response to energy prices or other stimuli.…”

Section: Model Purposementioning

confidence: 99%

Making energy system models useful: Good practice in the modelling of multiple vectors

Hawker

Bell

2019

WIREs Energy & Environment

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Energy system models which cover multiple vectors have become increasingly used to provide an evidence base for policy and commercial decisions in real-world energy systems undergoing change. In particular, such models are often used to derive 'optimal' pathways to decarbonisation considering the planning or operation of systems with multiple technology options. This paper explores how the concept of 'usefulness'the applicability and relevance of modelling outcomesmay be used to establish criteria for modelling design and practice at the outset, and looks at the difficulties that may be faced in achieving this. The application should inform the choice of modelling framework and the manner in which tractability should be addressed and results meaningfully presented. A process of continuous engagement is proposed which guides modelling work towards 'useful' outcomes, as well as mitigating the danger of results being more reflective of design choices than the properties of the real-world systems being modelled. Because of the difficulties in maintaining and auditing complex datasets spanning expertise from multiple sectors, there is a clear role for independent data curators to facilitate rigour in model parameterisation and to allow consistency between modelling efforts. Specialists from the different disciplines represented should be engaged to ensure that data have been interpreted and applied correctly. All modelling choices should be clearly documented along with advice on their possible implications in respect of use of the results.

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“…7 Fullerton and Ta (2019) emphasize the fixed costs that households must bear when purchasing more efficient appliances. I instead introduce costly efficiency improvements in the way that computable general equilibrium models have introduced them, as reductions in the productivity of other factors (see Allan et al, 2007Allan et al, , 2009Broberg et al, 2015).…”

Section: General Equilibrium Reboundmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most formal analyses of rebound effects have focused on partial equilibrium settings that hold some prices fixed. Yet Jevons was especially worried about general equilibrium channels, 2 and his concern has been reinforced by computable general equilibrium models that suggest the potential for strong rebound effects through "economy-wide" or "indirect" channels (Allan et al, 2009;Turner, 2013). As a result, many have called for theoretical research to illuminate the channels through which economy-wide rebound arises (e.g., Dimitropoulos, 2007;Turner, 2013;Borenstein, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

General Equilibrium Rebound from Energy Efficiency Innovation

Lemoine

2018

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I also thank Don Fullerton and Harry Saunders for helpful comments. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

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Modelling the Economy-wide Rebound Effect

Cited by 15 publications

References 16 publications

Rebound and disinvestment effects in refined oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector

Rebound and disinvestment effects in refined oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector

Making energy system models useful: Good practice in the modelling of multiple vectors

General Equilibrium Rebound from Energy Efficiency Innovation

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