Making energy system models useful: Good practice in the modelling of multiple vectors

Abstract

Energy system models which cover multiple vectors have become increasingly used to provide an evidence base for policy and commercial decisions in real-world energy systems undergoing change. In particular, such models are often used to derive 'optimal' pathways to decarbonisation considering the planning or operation of systems with multiple technology options. This paper explores how the concept of 'usefulness'the applicability and relevance of modelling outcomesmay be used to establish criteria for modelling design and practice at the outset, and looks at the difficulties that may be faced in achieving this. The application should inform the choice of modelling framework and the manner in which tractability should be addressed and results meaningfully presented. A process of continuous engagement is proposed which guides modelling work towards 'useful' outcomes, as well as mitigating the danger of results being more reflective of design choices than the properties of the real-world systems being modelled. Because of the difficulties in maintaining and auditing complex datasets spanning expertise from multiple sectors, there is a clear role for independent data curators to facilitate rigour in model parameterisation and to allow consistency between modelling efforts. Specialists from the different disciplines represented should be engaged to ensure that data have been interpreted and applied correctly. All modelling choices should be clearly documented along with advice on their possible implications in respect of use of the results.

Analyzing Intersectoral Benefits of District Heating in an Integrated Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning Model

“…Instead, a reasonable future scenario is used to analyze the particular benefits of district heating. In the context of multi-energy system planning models, Hawker and Bell [65] reflect on the usefulness of "optimal pathways" and urge to mitigate "the danger of results being more reflective of design choices than the properties of the real-world systems being modeled". However, the aim of this paper was not to determine final system designs, but to investigate the usefulness of DH on the basis of sensitivities.…”

The influence of macroeconomic infrastructure on supply chain smoothness and national competitiveness and its implications on a country's economic growth: evidence from BRICS countries

“…Well-developed and efficient macroeconomic infrastructure, such as modern transportation networks and reliable energy systems, reduces operational costs for businesses (Hawker & Bell, 2020). It makes products and services more competitive in terms of pricing and availability in domestic and international markets (Camagni, 2017).…”

Multi-Horizon Planning of Multi-Energy Systems

“…In sum, this imposes the need for multi-energy system (MES) models that capture the interactions between several energy carriers and are able to plan the composition of the future energy system. Planning over the entire transition PyPSA [6] yearly myopic multiple -high high LP Enertile [13] yearly closed multiple -high high LP FINE [7] weekly myopic multiple -high high MILP Dimension [14] weekly closed single -high high LP anyMOD [10] yearly closed multiple -high high LP TIMES [8] yearly pathway requires special attention on the model choice [1], [2] as the value of infrastructures can only be assessed by models that run on high temporal and spatial resolutions. In addition, a yearly dispatch horizon is required to quantify the impacts on seasonal variations.…”