Modelling the Commercial Property Market: An Empirical Study of the Singapore Office Market

Foo, N G Boon; Higgins, David M.

doi:10.1080/14445921.2007.11104229

Cited by 15 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 17 publications

(22 reference statements)

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“…(1993) show that the coefficients and the explanatory power of the two demand proxies vary significantly over time and section. Boon Foo and Higgins (2015) take another look at the complexities of commercial real estate markets and propose a single equation demand and supply model for Singapore's office property market. With data for the period from 1992 to 2005 the rent model could explain around 70% of variation.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting office rents with ensemble models – the case for European real estate markets

Ahlefeldt-Dehn

Cajias²,

Schäfers³

2022

JPIF

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PurposeCommercial real estate and office rental values, in particular, have long been the focus of research. Several forecasting frameworks for office rental values in multivariate and univariate fashions have been proposed. Recent developments in time series forecasting using machine learning and deep learning methods offer an opportunity to update traditional univariate forecasting frameworks.Design/methodology/approachWith the aim to extend research on univariate rent forecasting a hybrid methodology combining both ARIMA and a neural network model is proposed to exploit the unique strengths of both methods in linear and nonlinear modelling. N-BEATS, a deep learning algorithm that has demonstrated state-of-the-art forecasting performance in major forecasting competitions, are explained. With the ARIMA model, it is jointly applied to the office rental dataset to produce forecasts for four-quarters ahead.FindingsWhen the approach is applied to a dataset of 21 major European office cities, the results show that the ensemble model can be an effective approach to improve the prediction accuracy achieved by each of the models used separately.Practical implicationsReal estate forecasting is essential for assessing the value of managing portfolios and for evaluating investment strategies. The approach applied in this paper confirms the heterogeneity of real estate markets. The application of mixed modelling via linear and nonlinear methods decreases the uncertainty of abrupt changes in rents.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, no such application of a hybrid model updating classical statistical forecasting with a deep learning neural network approach in the field of commercial real estate rent forecasting has been undertaken.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting office rents with ensemble models – the case for European real estate markets

Ahlefeldt-Dehn

Cajias²,

Schäfers³

2022

JPIF

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“…To the economist, it represents the return on land while the estate surveyor and valuer regard it as the monthly payment made to a landlord for the use of land or building (Chris and Somefun, 2007). Since property investors expect returns on their real estate investments in form of rent (Barlowe, 1986;Boon and Higgins, 2007), there is a need to review contemporary studies on factors influencing these rents. The light of this, numerous studies have empirically investigated the factors influencing rental values for residential properties.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Value Pertinence for Residential Property Investments in Christian Mission Estates: An Investigation of Canaan City in Ogun State, Nigeria

Akinjare¹,

Ayedun²,

Oluwatobi³

et al. 2022

JCEU

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The rapid expansion and urbanization of Lagos state of Nigeria due to uncontrolled rural - urban migration seems to have succeeded in transforming the peri-urban areas of Ota, Ogun state into a mini economic hub, thus propelling property values skywards. The present study ascertains if passing rents, as well as sales value for the various apartments in Canaan city estate as charged by the project developer, is overpriced, and underpriced or fair-priced. The rental data collected from the residents of the estate were compared with rental opinion obtained from practicing estate surveyors and valuers in Ogun State. 240 questionnaires were administered to residents of the estate while 22 questionnaires were administered to registered estate surveying and valuation firms. Interviews and questionnaires were deployed to solicit data from the Physical Planning Department (PPD) being the managers of the estate. The retrieved data were then collated and presented using figures and Tables. Findings showed that the passing rents for all cadres of residential apartments in the estate were discounted with the most discounted apartment type being the 2-bedroom luxury flats and the least discounted apartment type being the 4-bedroom semi-detached houses. For sales value, findings showed that the high end apartments – the detached houses, semi-detached and also the 3-bedroom terrace houses were hugely discounted. Unfortunately, the 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom flats were the least discounted while the 2-bedroom luxury flats and 3-bedroom flats were either within range or slightly overpriced. The study concluded that the passing rents were underpriced due to the income nature of tenants and subsequently, the sales value proposed by the developer of the estate was underpriced. The study recommended an upward review of sales prices should the estate proprietor still continue with the sales of its apartment within Canaan city.

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“…Investing in commercial property is one of the most preferred options among the different types of investments. Boon and Higgins (2007) classified some commercial property types to include commercial buildings, shops, office buildings, hotels, stores and warehouses, and the likes which are intended to operate with a profit. Commercial property is usually located in strategic areas either urban or suburban areas that are zoned for businesses.…”

Section: The Nature Of Commercial Real Estatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…It can be used to predict the dynamics of the real estate market (Born & Pyhrr, 1994;Tonelli et al, 2004;Udoekanem et al, 2015b). The parameters for measuring rental performance are most often seen in the discounted cash flow models for property appraisals (Boon & Higgins, 2007). Udoekanem et al (2015a) argued that most studies on determinants of rental performance across the globe heavily come from Europe, Asia, Australia, and America.…”

Section: Baltic Journal Of Real Estate Economics and Construction Man...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Commercial Real Estate Rental Variation in Ilorin, Nigeria

Abdulmalik

Udoekanem

2022

Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management

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The goal of any real estate investor is to maximize return. This can be achieved through the generation of rental income. Thus, it is pertinent that the nature and characteristics of rental value are understood by investors to enhance real estate market penetration. This study examined commercial real estate rental variation in Ilorin, Nigeria, with specific focus on commercial complexes. For data collection, the study area was delineated into three commercial zones. Primary data for the study were collected from occupiers of commercial complexes and property valuers operating within these areas through structured questionnaire, based on purposive sampling technique. The study utilised an analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique to analyse the variation in rental values of commercial complexes in the study area. Results of data analysis revealed a statistically significant variation in rental values of commercial complexes in the study area (F ꞊ 16.70809, p ≤ 0.05) and an increasing trend of the rental values over the years under study as indicated by the rental index. This variation is perceived to be caused by the safety and quality of location, building visibility and lease term (RII ꞊ 0.97, 0.93 and 0.88, respectively). The study recommends that real estate investors should consider these factors when investing in commercial complexes across the commercial zones in Ilorin.

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Modelling the Commercial Property Market: An Empirical Study of the Singapore Office Market

Abstract: ABSTRACT

Cited by 15 publications

References 17 publications

Forecasting office rents with ensemble models – the case for European real estate markets

Forecasting office rents with ensemble models – the case for European real estate markets

Value Pertinence for Residential Property Investments in Christian Mission Estates: An Investigation of Canaan City in Ogun State, Nigeria

Commercial Real Estate Rental Variation in Ilorin, Nigeria

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