Modelling precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic: update of intensity–duration–frequency curves

Michálek, Jaroslav; Fusek, Michal; Hellebrand, Radek

doi:10.3176/earth.2016.15

Cited by 2 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…As mentioned above, the Gumbel distribution most likely underestimates the largest extremes. Additionally, the increase in extreme hydrological events strengthens the importance of updating the methodology, as also shown for other locations (e.g., [26,27]). We therefore propose to abandon the Gumbel distribution, and introduce two methods of fitting the GEV distribution to annual maxima: a modified Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation [28] and Bayesian inference (e.g., [16,29,30]).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Estimating Rainfall Design Values for the City of Oslo, Norway—Comparison of Methods and Quantification of Uncertainty

Lutz

Grinde

Dyrrdal

2020

Water

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Due to its location, its old sewage system, and the channelling of rivers, Oslo is highly exposed to urban flooding. Thus, it is crucial to provide relevant and reliable information on extreme precipitation in the planning and design of infrastructure. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are a frequently used tool for that purpose. However, the computational method for IDF curves in Norway was established over 45 years ago, and has not been further developed since. In our study, we show that the current method of fitting a Gumbel distribution to the highest precipitation events is not able to reflect the return values for the long return periods. Instead, we introduce the fitting of a Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for annual maximum precipitation in two different ways, using (a) a modified Maximum Likelihood estimation and (b) Bayesian inference. The comparison of the two methods for 14 stations in and around Oslo reveals that the estimated median return values are very similar, but the Bayesian method provides upper credible interval boundaries that are considerably higher. Two different goodness-of-fit tests favour the Bayesian method; thus, we suggest using the Bayesian inference for estimating IDF curves for the Oslo area.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Estimating Rainfall Design Values for the City of Oslo, Norway—Comparison of Methods and Quantification of Uncertainty

Lutz

Grinde

Dyrrdal

2020

Water

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“…In case of very short time series it is also possible to estimate the maximum N-year precipitation, but using different methods (the POT method supplemented by the bootstrapping methods), as shown in , Fusek et al (2016) etc.…”

Section: Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (Gev)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1) Creation of annual maximum series (AMS) for all the stations 2) Determination of N-year design precipitation for all the stations by two methods: by the GEV distribution and the Gumbel distribution. Specialized software was used in the calculations -ProClimDB (Štěpánek, 2010) and EVDest 1.0 (Fusek and Holešovský, 2014). EVDest software contains only estimates of GEV distribution, which is preferred in modern hydrology.…”

Section: Analytical Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This design rain has to be determined for each site using the statistical methods and the longest available data series on daily precipitation sums, or more specifically their annual maxims (or values exceeding the threshold, see e.g. Fusek et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gumbel's distribution was chosen for the purpose of comparing design values with previous publications (Šamaj et al, 1985). The GEV distribution is then selected with respect to abundant use in practice and also because it is implemented in the software ProClimDB (Štěpánek, 2010) and EVDest 1.0 (Fusek and Holešovský, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Determination of N-year Design Precipitation in the Czech Republic by Annual Maximum Series Method

Kozlovská¹,

Šácha²,

Toman³

2019

Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun.

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The sum of design precipitation of a selected repetition period, provided that it is evenly distributed over the river basin area, is a basic input for the calculation of the direct outflow volume by the curve number method. It is necessary to determine the design precipitation for each location using the statistical methods and the longest available data series on daily precipitation sums, or more specifically their annual maximums. This paper deals with the determination of design precipitation from data of eight stations of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute for the period 1961 - 2013. From a series of annual maximum values of daily precipitation sums, N-year design precipitations were calculated using two methods (Gumbel and generalized extreme value distributions). The conformity of both models with empirical distribution of values was statistically tested to evaluate which of the models gave more accurate results. In these cases, it was more appropriate to use the generalized extreme value distribution. Finally, the newly calculated characteristics were compared with the design values used by Šamaj et al. (1985), where significant differences were found.

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Modelling precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic: update of intensity–duration–frequency curves

Cited by 2 publications

References 32 publications

Estimating Rainfall Design Values for the City of Oslo, Norway—Comparison of Methods and Quantification of Uncertainty

Estimating Rainfall Design Values for the City of Oslo, Norway—Comparison of Methods and Quantification of Uncertainty

Determination of N-year Design Precipitation in the Czech Republic by Annual Maximum Series Method

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