Modelling observed and future runoff from a glacierized tropical catchment (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)

Juen, Irmgard; Kaser, Georg; Georges, Christian

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.038

Cited by 153 publications

(130 citation statements)

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“…Most recently Burns and Nolin (2014) calculated a 25 % reduction in glacier area from 1987 to 2010. Similarly, Racoviteanu et al (2008) calculated a 22.4 % glacier area reduction from 1970 to 2003, during which time the mean glacier terminus elevation increased by 113 m. Glacier changes are altering downstream hydrology, changing water supply in terms of quantity, quality and timing (Baraer et al, 2009(Baraer et al, , 2012Chevallier et al, 2011;Condom et al, 2011;Juen et al, 2007;Kaser et al, 2003;Rabatel et al, 2013). These changes have profound impacts on downstream communities, livelihoods and ecology (Bury et al, 2013(Bury et al, , 2011Carey et al, 2014;Mark et al, 2010;Postigo et al, 2008;Young, 2009Young, , 2014.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most recently Emmer et al (2015) combined a single DEM with high-resolution satellite imagery and field investigations to understand the geomorphic evolution and measure surface velocities of the debris-covered Jatunraju Glacier. Most research in the Cordillera Blanca has addressed the entire range with a focus on glacier response to larger-scale climatic perturbations (Rabatel et al, 2013;Vuille et al, 2008) and their role in the hydrologic budget of the Rio Santa basin (Baraer et al, 2012;Juen et al, 2007;Kaser et al, 2010). A number of studies have investigated mass balance response of individual glaciers, though these have generally aggregated mass balance at the glacier scale (Hastenrath and Ames, 1995a, b;Kaser et al, 1990;Winkler et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Monitoring tropical debris-covered glacier dynamics from high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Wigmore

Mark

2017

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. The glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are rapidly retreating and thinning as a result of climate change, altering the timing, quantity and quality of water available to downstream users. Furthermore, increases in the number and size of proglacial lakes associated with these melting glaciers is increasing potential exposure to glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Understanding how these glaciers are changing and their connection to proglacial lake systems is thus of critical importance. Most satellite data are too coarse for studying small mountain glaciers and are often affected by cloud cover, while traditional airborne photogrammetry and lidar are costly. Recent developments have made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) a viable and potentially transformative method for studying glacier change at high spatial resolution, on demand and at relatively low cost.Using a custom designed hexacopter built for high-altitude (4000-6000 m a.s.l.) operation, we completed repeat aerial surveys (2014 and 2015) of the debris-covered Llaca Glacier tongue and proglacial lake system. High-resolution orthomosaics (5 cm) and digital elevation models (DEMs) (10 cm) were produced and their accuracy assessed. Analysis of these datasets reveals highly heterogeneous patterns of glacier change. The most rapid areas of ice loss were associated with exposed ice cliffs and meltwater ponds on the glacier surface. Considerable subsidence and low surface velocities were also measured on the sediments within the pro-glacial lake, indicating the presence of extensive regions of buried ice and continued connection to the glacier tongue. Only limited horizontal retreat of the glacier tongue was observed, indicating that measurements of changes in aerial extent alone are inadequate for monitoring changes in glacier ice quantity.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring tropical debris-covered glacier dynamics from high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Wigmore

Mark

2017

The Cryosphere

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“…Many studies were dedicated to the impact of glaciers on runoff and water availability in the region (Baraer et al, 2012;Carey et al, 2014;Mark et al, 2010). The increasing knowledge of human-caused climate warming and resulting impacts has attracted much attention in the region up to now (Baraer et al, 2012;Bury et al, 2013;Carey, 2010;Carey et al, 2014;Chevallier et al, 2011;Juen et al, 2007;Mark et al, 2010;Vuille et al, 2008) and, among other interests, our interdisciplinary research team also focuses on this issue.…”

Section: Introduction -Considering Different Perspectives On a Complementioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing peasants' perceptions of precipitation change with precipitation records in the tropical Callejón de Huaylas, Peru

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Pronounced hygric seasonality determines the regional climate and, thus, the characteristics of rainfed agriculture in the Peruvian Callejón de Huaylas (Cordillera Blanca). Peasants in the Cuenca Auqui on the eastern slopes above the city of Huaraz attribute recently experienced challenges in agricultural production mainly to perceived changes in precipitation patterns. Statistical analyses of daily precipitation records at nearby Recuay (1964Recuay ( to 2013 and Huaraz (1996 to 2013) stations do not corroborate the perceived changes. Either insufficient temporal resolution of available precipitation records or other environmental and sociopolitical factors impacting traditional farming methods may be the reason for the lack of concordance between the two information sources investigated in this study.

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“…Numerous model studies for a wide range of climatic settings have been performed, estimating future trends in the hydrology of glacierized basins (e.g., Juen et al, 2007;Stahl et al, 2008;Weber et al, 2010;Hagg et al, 2013;Bavay et al, 2013;Ragettli et al, 2013). As a robust result, a shift in the runoff regime and a decrease in melting season discharge is found on the long run.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

Huss

Zemp

Joerg

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrology

102

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Glacier response to a changing climate and its impact on runoff is understood in general terms, but model-based projections are affected by considerable uncertainties. They originate from the driving climate model, input data quality, and simplifications in the glacio-hydrological model and hamper the reliability of the simulations. Here, an integrative assessment of the uncertainty in 21st century glacier runoff is provided based on experiments using the Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM) applied to the catchment of Findelengletscher, Switzerland. GERM is calibrated and validated in a multi-objective approach and is run using nine Regional Climate Models (RCMs) until 2100. Among others, the hydrological impacts of the RCM downscaling procedure, the winter snow accumulation, the surface albedo and the calculation of ice melt and glacier retreat are investigated. All experiments indicate rapid glacier wastage and a transient runoff increase followed by reduced melt season discharge. However, major uncertainties in, e.g., glacier area loss (À100% to À63%) and the change in annual runoff (À57% to +25% relative to today) by 2100 are found. The impact of model assumptions on changes in August runoff is even higher (À94% to À5%). The spread in RCM results accounts for 20-50% of the overall uncertainty in modeled discharge. Initial ice thickness, the amount and spatial distribution of winter snow and the glacier retreat model have the largest effect on the projections, whereas the RCM downscaling procedure, calibration data quality and the melt model (energy balance vs. degree-day approach) are of secondary importance.

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Modelling observed and future runoff from a glacierized tropical catchment (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)

Cited by 153 publications

References 28 publications

Monitoring tropical debris-covered glacier dynamics from high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Monitoring tropical debris-covered glacier dynamics from high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Comparing peasants' perceptions of precipitation change with precipitation records in the tropical Callejón de Huaylas, Peru

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

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