A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise: 2003 to 2009Gardner, Alex S; Bolch, Tobias; et al Abstract: Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world's oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during [2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009], with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was -259 T 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 T 13% of the observed sea level rise.

The Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) is a globally complete collection of digital outlines of glaciers, excluding the ice sheets, developed to meet the needs of the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for estimates of past and future mass balance. The RGI was created with limited resources in a short period. Priority was given to completeness of coverage, but a limited, uniform set of attributes is attached to each of the ~198 000 glaciers in its latest version, 3.2. Satellite imagery from 1999–2010 provided most of the outlines. Their total extent is estimated as 726 800 ± 34 000 km2. The uncertainty, about ±5%, is derived from careful single-glacier and basin-scale uncertainty estimates and comparisons with inventories that were not sources for the RGI. The main contributors to uncertainty are probably misinterpretation of seasonal snow cover and debris cover. These errors appear not to be normally distributed, and quantifying them reliably is an unsolved problem. Combined with digital elevation models, the RGI glacier outlines yield hypsometries that can be combined with atmospheric data or model outputs for analysis of the impacts of climatic change on glaciers. The RGI has already proved its value in the generation of significantly improved aggregate estimates of glacier mass changes and total volume, and thus actual and potential contributions to sea-level rise.

Although reliable figures are often missing, considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers are universally expected for water availability in river systems under the influence of ongoing global climate change. We estimate the contribution potential of seasonally delayed glacier melt water to total water availability in large river systems. We find that the seasonally delayed glacier contribution is largest where rivers enter seasonally arid regions and negligible in the lowlands of river basins governed by monsoon climates. By comparing monthly glacier melt contributions with population densities in different altitude bands within each river basin, we demonstrate that strong human dependence on glacier melt is not collocated with highest population densities in most basins. G laciers and seasonal snow cover are expected to change their water storage capacity under the ongoing warming of the global climate with major consequences for downriver water supply (1-4). Despite reliable observations and model results of projected changes in runoff from individual highly glacierized basins (5-13), a severe lack of appropriate data records and inadequately resolved model results (14-16) leave us with only vague ideas of the importance of glaciers and seasonal snow cover on regional scales.Although reliable figures are often missing, considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers and snow cover are universally expected for water availability in river systems that originate from glacierized mountain regions. Approaches that compare glacier melt water production (obtained through measurements or modeling) with measurements of discharge volume somewhere downstream (e.g., ref. 17) are problematic because of the different nature of the two observed variables: Whereas glacier melt water can be considered as raw volume input into the runoff system, the discharge further downstream has been modified by, e.g., precipitation, evaporation, irrigation, damming, or exchange with subsurface flow regimes and groundwater. With increasing distance from the glaciers, modifications of runoff volume become more important, and the remaining fractional melt water contribution decreases. In a direct comparison between glacier melt water and runoff downriver, the volume contribution from glaciers is therefore overestimated by default with increasing distance from the glaciers. At the same time, the population that may depend on glacier melt as a resource typically increases downriver. A more detailed discussion of the shortcomings in the published literature is presented in ref. 18.Here we quantify the importance of glacier melt for the availability of water in large river basins, on the basis of globally available datasets and fundamental considerations. We deliberately perform our analysis from a perspective of total water availability within the whole river basin, as opposed to estimating volume discharge rates of the main river within a basin. Approaching the ProblemGlaciers produce melt water only during warm periods...

Slope glaciers on Kilimanjaro (ca. 5000-6000 m MSL) reached their most recent maximum extent in the late nineteenth century (L19) and have receded since then. This study quantifies the climate signal behind the recession of Kersten Glacier, which generates information on climate change in the tropical midtroposphere between L19 and present. Multiyear meteorological measurements at 5873 m MSL serve to force and verify a spatially distributed model of the glacier's mass balance (the most direct link between glacier behavior and atmospheric forcing). At present the glacier is losing mass (522 6 105 kg m 22 yr 21 ), terminates at 5100 m, and the interannual variability of mass and energy budgets largely reflects variability in atmospheric moisture. Backward modeling of the L19 steady-state glacier extent (down to 4500 m) reveals higher precipitation (1160 to 1240 mm yr 21 ), higher air humidity, and increased fractional cloud cover in L19 but no significant changes in local air temperature, air pressure, and wind speed. The atmosphere in the simulated L19 climate transfers more energy to the glacier surface through atmospheric longwave radiation and turbulent heat-but this is almost entirely balanced by the decrease in absorbed solar radiation (due to both increased cloudiness and higher surface albedo). Thus, the energy-driven mass loss per unit area (sublimation plus meltwater runoff) was not appreciably different from today. Higher L19 precipitation rates therefore dominated the mass budget and produced a larger glacier extent in the past.

Meteorological and glaciological measurements obtained at 5873 m a.s.l. on Kersten Glacier, a slope glacier on the southern flanks of Kilimanjaro, are used to run a physically-based mass balance model for the period February 2005 to January 2006. This shows that net shortwave radiation is the most variable energy flux at the glacier-atmosphere interface, governed by surface albedo. The majority of the mass loss (∼65%) is due to sublimation (direct conversion of snow/ice to water vapour), with melting of secondary importance. Sensitivity experiments reveal that glacier mass balance is 2-4 times more sensitive to a 20% precipitation change than to a 1°C air temperature change. These figures also hold when the model is run with input data representative of a longer term mean period. Results suggest that a regional-scale moisture projection for the 21st century is crucial to a physically-based prediction of glacier retention on Africa's highest mountain.

In the low latitudes there is an absence of major thermal seasonality, yet there are three different climate regimes related to global circulation patterns and their seasonal oscillation: the humid inner tropics, the dry subtropics and, intermediate between these two, the outer tropics. For the respective glacier regimes the vertical profiles of specific mass balance (VBPs) are modeled considering vertical gradients of accumulation, air temperature and albedo, the duration of the ablation period and a factor for the ratio between melting and sublimation. The model is first calibrated with data from Hintereisferner, Austrian Alps, and is then applied to tropical conditions. The simulated VBP matches well the measured profiles from Irian jaya and Mount Kenya. Due to lack of field evidence, the subtropical VBP cannot be verified directly. However, application of the respective model versions separately to the humid and dry seasons of the outer-tropical Glaciar Uruashraju, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, provides reasonable results. Glaciers in the humid inner tropics are considered to be most sensitive to variations in air temperature, while dry subtropical glaciers are most sensitive to changes in air humidity. The two seasons of the outer tropics have to be viewed from these different perspectives.

Volume‐area power law scaling, one of a set of analytical scaling techniques based on principals of dimensional analysis, has become an increasingly important and widely used method for estimating the future response of the world's glaciers and ice caps to environmental change. Over 60 papers since 1988 have been published in the glaciological and environmental change literature containing applications of volume‐area scaling, mostly for the purpose of estimating total global glacier and ice cap volume and modeling future contributions to sea level rise from glaciers and ice caps. The application of the theory is not entirely straightforward, however, and many of the recently published results contain analyses that are in conflict with the theory as originally described by Bahr et al. (1997). In this review we describe the general theory of scaling for glaciers in full three‐dimensional detail without simplifications, including an improved derivation of both the volume‐area scaling exponent γ and a new derivation of the multiplicative scaling parameter c. We discuss some common misconceptions of the theory, presenting examples of both appropriate and inappropriate applications. We also discuss potential future developments in power law scaling beyond its present uses, the relationship between power law scaling and other modeling approaches, and some of the advantages and limitations of scaling techniques.

No abstract