Modelling Land Cover Changes in Peri-Urban Areas: A Case Study of George Town Conurbation, Malaysia

Abstract

Drastic growth of urban populations has caused expansion of peri-urban areas—the transitional zone between a city and its hinterland. Although urbanisation may bring economic opportunities and improve infrastructure in an area, uncontrolled urban expansion towards peri-urban areas will negatively impact the environment and the community living within the area. Malaysia, for example, has become one of the most urbanised countries in East Asia. However, cities in Malaysia are relatively small and less densely populated compared with other cities in East Asia. This indicates that urban expansion has been sprawling towards peri-urban areas, and not being controlled and properly managed. To ensure urban expansions occur sustainably, urban growth boundary (UGB) can potentially be used as a mechanism to contain and limit urban expansion, and allow urban growth to be planned to achieve sustainable development. A scientific approach is essential to determine an UGB that allows future growth to be predicted and taken into consideration. Potentially, urban spatial models have been widely used to plan and predict future urban expansions. George Town Conurbation, the second largest urban conurbation in Malaysia, has been chosen as the study area in this study. This study aims to demonstrate the application of a GIS-Cellular Automata model, known as FutureSim, which was developed to simulate land cover changes and generate a designated UGB for this area. The model was developed based on the transition rule derived from land cover changes, from 2010 to 2018, and then used to predict future land cover changes under two different planning scenarios—compact growth and urban sprawl scenarios. With the accuracy of the model exceeding 74%, FutureSim was used to predict land cover change until 2030. The model can potentially be used to assist planners and policymakers to make decisions on the allocation of sustainable land use and planning for rapidly developing regions.

Integrating the Ecological Security Pattern and the PLUS Model to Assess the Effects of Regional Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of Hefei City, Anhui Province

“…Continuous human activity rapidly accelerates the evolution of landscape structures, posing serious threats to landscape functions and ecosystems. This will disrupt the structure and function of the ecosystem [ 11 ], jeopardizing the landscape pattern and sustainability of the region [ 12 ]. Understanding and quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of LULC and their socio-ecological repercussions is critical for grasping the links between social and natural phenomena, particularly in urban regions.…”

Exploring Community Perceptions of Climate Change Issues in Peninsular Malaysia

“…In recent decades, urban areas in Malaysia have become increasingly prominent as human habitats compared to in the early 19th Century, when Malaysia was still covered with equatorial rainforests rich in biodiversity and minerals, interspersed by villages, especially in places leading to the estuaries of the major river basins [1,2]. However, human habitats began to change, slowly at first, before expanding widely in the last four decades, due the increase in population in the socioeconomic strata, in turn due to the mobilization of various types of capital to carry out and develop a combination of activities to meet the basic needs and development of the population [3]. As a result, settlements, dwellings, and the surrounding areas began to change, from a natural state to more of a built landscape, where the basic components of natural ecology began to deteriorate due to these factors.…”

“…As a result, settlements, dwellings, and the surrounding areas began to change, from a natural state to more of a built landscape, where the basic components of natural ecology began to deteriorate due to these factors. Thus, the problem of increased widespread exploitation and unsystematic management of these natural resources is impacting the environment through, for example, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, climate change, global warming, and increased flood disasters [3,4]. These changes in the environment inevitably impact the livelihood of the community socially and economically.…”

“…Physical development activities are carried out in the name of meeting the needs and wants of the community. Therefore, vegetation areas are cleared to give space for development activities, causing a decreasing rate of carbon dioxide being absorbed by the scarce trees and plants [3,5,6]. Climate change has almost become a mainstream issue, and this has indicated that the country is in crisis [7,8].…”

Analysis of an Urban Development Boundary Policy in China Based on the IAD Framework

“…For years, scholars have debated the potential impact of an urban containment policy, which is broadly considered necessary for intensive land use in rapidly changing cities [9]. Cities rely on this policy to restrict the disorderly development of cities, preserve agricultural land, and maintain ecological goods and services [10,11].…”