Integrating the Ecological Security Pattern and the PLUS Model to Assess the Effects of Regional Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of Hefei City, Anhui Province

Abstract

Most studies in the field of ecological restoration have only focused on repairing damaged land and have made no attempt to account for the impact of high-intensity land use on future landscape patterns. The purpose of this study was to propose a framework for evaluating the expected effects of ecological restoration based on land-use change and the ecological security pattern. Therefore, we integrated the PLUS model with the ecological security pattern and used Hefei City as a case study to conduct research. The results showed that from 2020 to 2030, land-use changes would occur primarily in the main urban area of Hefei and along the eastern shore of the Chaohu Lake watershed. Under the ecological protection scenario, arable land would be converted to construction land and woodland. Additionally, there would be an increase in ecological sources and pinch points in the area, and the number and area of the barriers would show a certain degree of reduction. The ecosystem quality, ecological integrity, and landscape connectivity of Hefei would be improved. This study offers a novel perspective for evaluating the expected effects of regional ecological restoration and provides an important reference for the dynamic formulation of multilevel ecological restoration policies.

Ecological Security Assessment Based on the “Importance–Sensitivity–Connectivity” Index and Pattern Construction: A Case Study of Xiliu Ditch in the Yellow River Basin, China

“…Since its introduction in the 1990s, the theory of ecological security patterns has gradually become a research hot spot in global ecology, environmental science, and urban planning [7]. Research methods have evolved from initial qualitative planning to a combination of multiple tools, such as spatial data computation [8], static pattern optimization [9][10][11], and dynamic trend simulation [12,13]. The research framework of "ecological source identification-resistance surface creation-ecological corridor extraction" has been widely used by global scholars in the construction of ecological security patterns [14,15].…”

Spatial-Temporal Variations and Trade-Offs of Ecosystem Services in Anhui Province, China

“…Land is the spatial carrier of human survival and major socioeconomic activities [12][13][14], and human activities have led to varying degrees of change on more than 70% of the global land surface [15], intensifying competition among different land use types and threatening ecological security [16,17]. However, land use and land cover changes (LUCCs) are closely related to ESs.…”

Evolutionary Trend Analysis of Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution Load in Chongqing Based on Land Use Simulation

“…It is also suitable for simulating regions of larger scales with high simulation accuracy [34]. In this study, we compared our results with those of other studies ( [29,[34][35][36]; the specific results are shown in Table 6) and found that our kappa coefficients were 0.92 and 0.89, respectively. This indicates that our simulation accuracy is high, which has certain advantages in accuracy and provides more reference value.…”