Modelling Interactions between Forest Pest Invasions and Human Decisions Regarding Firewood Transport Restrictions

Barlow, Lee-Ann; Cecile, Jacob; Bauch, Chris T.; Anand, Madhur

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0090511

Cited by 47 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 19 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…This approach can be straightforwardly extended to spatial settings, where individuals imitate successful strategies of their network neighbours [433]. A similar approach has also been adopted in models of coupled human-environment systems [438,439]. Other approaches incorporate specific theories from psychology and social psychology in order to formulate mechanisms in coupled behavior-disease models.…”

Section: Psychological Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical physics of vaccination

et al. 2016

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Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand disease dynamics and inform prevention strategies. Vaccination-one of the most important preventive measures of modern times-is of great interest both theoretically and empirically. And in contrast to traditional approaches, recent research increasingly explores the pivotal implications of individual behavior and heterogeneous contact patterns in populations. Our report reviews the developmental arc of theoretical epidemiology with emphasis on vaccination, as it led from classical models assuming homogeneously mixing (mean-field) populations and ignoring human behavior, to recent models that account for behavioral feedback and/or population spatial/social structure. Many of the methods used originated in statistical physics, such as lattice and network models, and their associated analytical frameworks. Similarly, the feedback loop between vaccinating behavior and disease propagation forms a coupled nonlinear system with analogs in physics. We also review the new paradigm of digital epidemiology, wherein sources of digital data such as online social media are mined for high-resolution information on epidemiologically relevant individual behavior. Armed with the tools and concepts of statistical physics, and further assisted by new sources of digital data, models that capture nonlinear interactions between behavior and disease dynamics offer a novel way of modeling real-world phenomena, and can help improve health outcomes. We conclude the review by discussing open problems in the field and promising directions for future research.

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Section: Psychological Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical physics of vaccination

et al. 2016

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“…Lack of government counselling impacts the ignorant attitude of locals to rehabilitate the critical lands surrounding the area of the villages. The Bawean citizens were unrealising that this negative attitude (do not preserve land and illegal logging) potentially impacts on the wood supply in Bawean Island (Barlow et al, 2014;Rademaker et al, 2016).…”

Section: Citizens' Perception Of Wildlife Reserve Forestmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bawean Island Citizens' Perception and Attitude toward the Existence of Bawean Deer (Axis kuhlii) and Its Habitat

Sigit¹

2019

American Journal of Animal and Veterinary Sciences

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Bawean deer (Axis kuhlii) is an Indonesian endemic-animal species that is categorized as Critically Endangered by IUCN and listed on Appendices I by CITES. This study aims to analyse Bawean citizens' perceptions and attitude to forest and the Bawean deer. The study was conducted by direct interviews and field observations. The respondents were determined by purposive sampling and quota sampling resulted in 191 respondents. The result indicates that the Bawean citizens have a low education level. Some of them finished education after elementary school (39.89%) and have not even completed this level 41.49%. Most of the Bawean citizens work as farmers (62.23%) and rely on the forest for their livelihoods, such as hunting for fresh meat. It is concluded that the educational background and well-being level of the Bawean citizens influence the perception of Bawean deer and wildlife reserve forest. Further, it will affect the existence and sustainability of the forest ecosystem. The citizens' attitudes towards the environment will be favourable if they have a high education level and forest supervision is held continuously.

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“…Simple population growth models to study resource-limited human population dynamics are well represented in the literature, perhaps on account of our growing awareness of the ramifications of resource over-exploitation [25]. These models exemplify socio-ecological (or human-environment) systems, wherein human dynamics and environmental dynamics are coupled to one another [26][27][28][29]. Such models have been used to study phenomena such as the impact of resource dynamics on the potential for human population collapse [30] and conflict among metapopulations arising over common resources [31,32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interconnections Accelerate Collapse in a Socio-Ecological Metapopulation

2019

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Over-exploitation of natural resources can have profound effects on both ecosystems and their resident human populations. Simple theoretical models of the dynamics of a population of human harvesters and the abundance of a natural resource being harvested have been studied previously, but relatively few models consider the effect of metapopulation structure (i.e., a population distributed across discrete patches). Here we analyze a socio-ecological metapopulation model based on an existing single-population model used to study persistence and collapse in human populations. Resources grow logistically on each patch. Each population harvests resources on its own patch to support population growth, but can also harvest resources from other patches when their own patch resources become scarce. We show that when populations are allowed to harvest resources from other patches, the peak population size is higher, but subsequent population collapse is significantly accelerated and across a broader parameter regime. As the number of patches in the metapopulation increases, collapse is more sudden, more severe, and occurs sooner. These effects persist under scenarios of asymmetry and inequality between patches. Our model makes simplifying assumptions in order to facilitate insight and understanding of model dynamics. However, the robustness of the model prediction suggests that more sophisticated models should be developed to ascertain the impact of metapopulation structure on socio-ecological sustainability.

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Modelling Interactions between Forest Pest Invasions and Human Decisions Regarding Firewood Transport Restrictions

Cited by 47 publications

References 19 publications

Statistical physics of vaccination

Statistical physics of vaccination

Bawean Island Citizens' Perception and Attitude toward the Existence of Bawean Deer (Axis kuhlii) and Its Habitat

Interconnections Accelerate Collapse in a Socio-Ecological Metapopulation

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