Modelling Housing Supply and Monetary Policy Within the Context of Global Economic Turbulence

Liu, Junxiao; London, Kerry

doi:10.3846/1648715x.2012.735273

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…They concluded that there is absolutely no discrete influence of housing density and access to a sub-centre on house prices. Liu and London (2013) examined the ripple effect between housing supply and monetary policy during the global economic turmoil. They related the significance of population increment as the key fundamental factor contributes to housing supply shortage.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling housing prices and market fundamentals: evidence from the Sydney housing market

Al-Masum

Lee

2019

IJHMA

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Purpose Housing prices in Sydney have increased rapidly in the past three decades. This leads to a debate of whether Sydney housing prices have departed from macroeconomic fundamentals. However, little research has been devoted to this area. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by examining the long-run association between housing prices and market fundamentals. Further, it also examines the long-run determinants of housing prices in Greater Sydney. Design/methodology/approach The analysis of this study involves two stages. The first stage is to estimate the presence of long-run relationship between housing prices and market fundamentals with the Johansen and Juselius Cointegration test. Thereafter, the determinants of housing prices in Greater Sydney is assessed by using a vector error correction model. Findings The empirical results show that Sydney housing prices are cointegrated with market fundamentals in the long run. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that market fundamentals such as gross disposable income, housing supply, unemployment rate and gross domestic product are the key long-run determinants of Sydney housing prices, reflecting that Sydney housing prices, in general, can be explained by market fundamentals in the long run. Research limitations/implications The findings enable more informed and practical policy and investment decision-making regarding the relation between housing prices and market fundamentals. Originality/value This paper is the first study to offer empirical evidence of the degree to which the behaviour of housing prices can be explained by market fundamentals, from a capital city instead of at a national level, using a relatively disaggregated dataset of housing price series for Greater Sydney.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling housing prices and market fundamentals: evidence from the Sydney housing market

Al-Masum

Lee

2019

IJHMA

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“…As a consequence, there will be a high probability of a decrease in new housing construction outputs (i.e. in dwelling completion rates) because house price serves as a stimulator of investment into real estate development (Liu and London, 2013).…”

Section: Stage-responsiveness Of Residential Construction To the Price Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The aforementioned studies of price elasticity have investigated the response of residential construction from a long-run perspective, in which temporal or contemporary effects and activities are ignored. As house prices depend on information on the demand and supply sides of the residential property market, they act as profit and market indicators for real estate investors and developers (Liu and London, 2013). Put simply, it is useful to indicate not only the equilibrium of supply and demand but also returns on property investment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responsiveness of residential construction-production progress to house price dynamics

Liu

Sing³

2021

IJHMA

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Purpose This study aims to address the gap by empirically exploring how residential construction-production progress, which includes project commencement, under-construction and project completion, responds dynamically to fluctuations in house prices. Design/methodology/approach A vector autoregressive model and an impulse response function are applied to simulate and analyse the circle of the stage-responsiveness of residential construction to residential property price dynamics in the state of Victoria, Australia. The quarterly numbers of dwelling units commenced, under-construction and completed are used as the proxy for the residential construction activities at three stages over the construction progress. Findings The analysis indicates that the dynamics are essentially transmitted throughout the construction process and can substantially impact the pace of production progress. The findings from this study provide an empirical base that should be useful in developing price-elasticity and production theories applicable to the context of residential property construction. Research limitations/implications The findings described above have been generated basically by examining the case of Victoria, Australia at a macro level. The generalisation of the research output needs to be verified further by future researchers using data collected from other regions/countries. Nevertheless, the reliability of the conclusions with particular practical implications can be substantially improved by future researchers by analysing more markets and production proxies at the activity level. Practical implications Based on new empirical findings, this research argues that building activity (i.e. under construction) played as a gateway between the construction and housing sectors, via which the inter-responsiveness of the housing supply in terms of construction activities and housing prices are transmitted. Originality/value This research firstly attempts to explore the inter-responsiveness between the real estate and construction sectors. A simulated circle of the stage-responsiveness of residential construction to residential property price dynamics is proposed, which can serve as a significant foundation for developing the theory of construction production.

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“…The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy was studied by Antonio Afonso and Ricardo M. Sousa [11], who described also the positive impact of the government spending on the several indicators, including the real estate prices. The interrelationship between housing supply and monetary policy within the context of global economic turbulence by a VEC-D model was studied by Junxiao Liu and Kerry London [12].…”

Section: Socio-economic Factors and Real Estate Market: The Main Intementioning

confidence: 99%

Interaction of socio-economic factors and real estate market in the context of sustainable urban development

Geipele

Kauškale

Lepkova

et al. 2014

The 9th International Conference "Environmental Engineering 2014"

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This article in general reflects the significance of socio-economic factors and the real estate market in sustainable urban development. The relevance of the research is being determined by the high ratio of the real estate market and construction industry in Latvian and Baltic economic structure, as well as well as their major impact on the state socio-economic status. The objective of the research is to identify the major problems existing in the sustainable development of real estate industry for improvement of the situation. The particular attention will be paid to the problems of socio-economic aspects and related macroeconomic indicators. On the basis of the results of the research the proposals for advancement of sustainable and competitive development are prepared. The subject of the research is an interaction of socio-economic factors and real estate market over the period from 2009 to 2013.The article reflects the impact of Latvian national economy and real estate market on the sustainable urban development, as well as the main trends in the real estate market and the socio-economic sphere of the country, in the overall context of the development of the Baltic States. The role of the state is reflected in the socio-economic processes regulation, interaction of the economy and real estate market development, factors influencing the house building, the main challenges and directions of Latvian sustainable development strategies, as well as the correlation of some macroeconomic indicators in terms of sustainable development. On the basis of the conducted study, the main trends in the sustainable development of the real estate market and in the socio-economic sphere have been defined, as well as recommendations on improvement of the situation in the longer term and preventive measures have been developed. The historical, logical, analytical and comparative methods have been used in the article.

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Modelling Housing Supply and Monetary Policy Within the Context of Global Economic Turbulence

Cited by 11 publications

References 30 publications

Modelling housing prices and market fundamentals: evidence from the Sydney housing market

Modelling housing prices and market fundamentals: evidence from the Sydney housing market

Responsiveness of residential construction-production progress to house price dynamics

Interaction of socio-economic factors and real estate market in the context of sustainable urban development

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