Modelling heatwaves in viticultural regions of southeastern Australia

Grace, W.; Sadras, Víctor O.; Hayman, Peter

doi:10.22499/2.5804.004

Cited by 10 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 27 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Também houve tendência de redução da frequência de dias com temperaturas máximas acima do percentil 90 (TX90p), o que indica menor frequência de dias quentes. Grace et al (2009) comentam que a qualidade da uva é afetada pelas altas temperaturas. Temperaturas extremas acima de 35°C, registradas no abrigo meteorológico, que correspondem a temperaturas acima de 40°C sob o sol, são consideradas temperaturas prejudiciais para a videira, por que inibem ou mesmo bloqueiam processos fisiológicos e bioquímicos.…”

Section: Resultsunclassified

Tendências climáticas e produção de uva na região dos Vales da Uva Goethe

Back

Bruna

Vieira

2012

Pesq. agropec. bras.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Resumo -O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar tendências nas séries climáticas e nos índices agroclimáticos para o cultivo da videira na região dos Vales da Uva Goethe, em Santa Catarina. A região apresenta clima mesotérmico úmido. Foram utilizados dados de temperatura máxima e mínima do ar, do período de 1924 a 2010, e de precipitação pluvial, de 1955 a 2010. O teste de Mann-Kendall foi utilizado para avaliar a tendência nas séries, cuja magnitude foi estimada pela declividade mediana determinada pelo teste de Theil-Sen. Foi observada tendência de aumento nas séries de temperatura mínima do ar, em escala anual, bem como nas estações do ano. Quanto à temperatura máxima, somente houve tendência de aumento na série de verão. Em relação aos índices agrometeorológicos, foi observada tendência de diminuição do número de geadas, diminuição do período entre a brotação e a colheita, aumento da soma térmica e dos índices de Huglin e de frio. Foram evidenciadas tendências de aumento da precipitação pluvial total anual e da precipitação no período de crescimento da videira, bem como aumento do número de dias, com chuva igual ou superior a 20 mm, e aumento na temperatura mínima e noturna.Termos para indexação: aquecimento global, climatologia, índice de frio, mudanças climáticas, precipitação pluvial, soma térmica. Climate trends and production of grapes in the Region of Goethe Grape Valleys, BrazilAbstract -The objective of this work was to evaluate the trends in climate series and in agroclimatic indices for growing vines in the Region of Goethe Grape Valleys, in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. The Region has a mesothermal humid climate. Maximum and minimum air temperatures, from the years 1924 to 2010, and rainfall data from 1955 to 2010 were used. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to evaluate the series trend, whose magnitude was estimated by the median slope determined by the Theil-Sen test. An increase trend was observed in the series of minimum air temperature, at the annual scale, as well as in the seasons of the year. For the maximum air temperature, there was a significant increase trend only in in the summer series. For the agrometeorological indices, a significant trend of decrease in the number of frost events was observed, reduction of the time between sprouting and harvesting, and increase trends in thermal summation and on the Huglin´s and cold indexes. Increase trends were evidenced for the annual total rainfall and for rainfall during the vine growth period, as well as for the number of days with rain equal to or higher than 20 mm, and for the minimum and night temperatures.

show abstract

Section: Resultsunclassified

Tendências climáticas e produção de uva na região dos Vales da Uva Goethe

Back

Bruna

Vieira

2012

Pesq. agropec. bras.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There appears to be no simple analytical or parametric model of frequency of runs of extremes of a daily variable in the literature other than the analytically expressed Markov model of Grace et al (2009) and Grace (2011). The purpose of this paper is to present an autoregressive model missing daily observations were substituted with linearly interpolated values.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A stochastic model for runs of extreme days for a daily meteorological variable

Grace¹

2013

AMOJ

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The expected frequency of runs of extreme days is modelled with a seasonal autoregressive representation using two site-specific scalar parameters-autocorrelation and an index of seasonality. Extreme days for a meteorological variable such as temperature, evaporation, sunshine and wind run are defined as days when the variable in question exceeds an arbitrary upper threshold or fails to exceed a lower threshold. The model estimates the frequency of runs as a function of duration (in days) and percentile or absolute threshold.The model is applied to several types of daily variable such as wind run, evaporation, sunshine and pressure, and tested extensively on datasets of daily maximum and minimum temperature for 60 to 70 sites in each of Australia and Europe. Using a priori parameter values of autocorrelation and seasonality, the model often provides fair agreement with the observed frequency of runs of extreme days. With the parameter values tuned to fit the observed frequency of runs, the agreement is typically fair to good. It is concluded that the model has the potential to estimate frequency (or return period) of unusually long runs with very low or high percentile thresholds.

show abstract

“…Grace et al (2009) (hereafter GSH) showed that heatwave frequency at viticultural sites in southeastern Austalia could be modelled by a Markov process. The model of GSH provides a relationship between (i) the frequency of runs, (ii) the duration of runs and (iii) the intensity (as specified by a relative threshold maximum temperature); that relationship being regulated by an empirical coefficient M which is specific to each location or site.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling heatwaves: connecting an empirical Markov process model with an autoregressive model

Grace¹

2011

AMOJ

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The frequency, intensity and duration of heatwaves at sites in mid-latitude Australia are modelled by a Markov process model and an autoregressive model with both producing typical relative errors of ten to fifteen per cent. The Markov model requires a location-specific empirical coefficient and this coefficient is shown to have a dependency on the summer-time autocorrelation and a seasonality index. Applying the autoregressive model to simple idealised climates, a very similar dependency is found which serves to demonstrate a connection between the two models. The use of detrended temperature, rather than actual temperature, has no material effect on the results.

show abstract

Modelling heatwaves in viticultural regions of southeastern Australia

Cited by 10 publications

References 27 publications

Tendências climáticas e produção de uva na região dos Vales da Uva Goethe

Tendências climáticas e produção de uva na região dos Vales da Uva Goethe

A stochastic model for runs of extreme days for a daily meteorological variable

Modelling heatwaves: connecting an empirical Markov process model with an autoregressive model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About