Modelling evacuation behavior during the three mile island reactor crisis

Johnson, James H.; Zeigler, Donald J.

doi:10.1016/0038-0121(86)90007-8

Cited by 18 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 22 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The second approach listed above, that of using the stated intentions of potential evacuees, has been of particular interest to analysts of radiological hazards (see Johnson, 1985;Johnson and Ziegler, 1986;Stem and Sinuany-Stern, 1989). Given the rarity of such events as the Three Mile Island scare and the Chernobyl incident, recourse to this approach is understandable.…”

Section: Evacuee Mobilization Rates Modeling Twe ' I " G Of 'I1ripdementioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State of the Art Reviewing

Southworth¹

1991

131

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Evacuee Mobilization Rates Modeling Twe ' I " G Of 'I1ripdementioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State of the Art Reviewing

Southworth¹

1991

131

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…According to the surveys, local residents would have little or no faith in emergency notification messages, regardless of whether they came from utility company representatives or public officials (Table 1). Moreover, our research (Johnson and Zeigler 1983, Zeigler and Johnson 1984, Johnson 1985b, Johnson and Zeigler 1986, Johnson 1986) suggests strongly that, as a consequence of the high degree of public distrust of both utility company and government officials, evacuation decisions most likely will be made at the individual household level, as in the TMI reactor crisis (Zeigler, Brunn, and Johnson 1981). Thus emergency managers should not only anticipate but also plan for a considerable amount of spontaneous evacuation should an accident occur at either of these plants (Johnson 1985a).…”

Section: The Research Contextmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Thirdly, we have developed a theoretical model of nuclear reactor emergency evacuation decisionmaking (Johnson 1985b) and the two empirical tests of this model conducted thus far (Johnson 1986, Johnson andZeigler 1986) revealed that the same factors that influenced actual evacuation behavior during the TMI reactor crisis also explained the verbal behavioral responses given by Long Island residents to a TMI-type reactor accident scenario for the Shoreham plant. The fact that our model, in both cases, proved to be statistically a good fit to the empirical data strongly implies that people do not give casual or thoughtless responses when asked about what they would do in the event of a nuclear reactor accident (Johnson 1985a).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nuclear Protective Action Advisories: A Policy Analysis and Evaluation

Johnson

Zeigler

1989

Growth and Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Widespread spontaneous evacuation, the tendency for people to evacuate even when not advised to do so, has been highlighted as one of the likely behavioral responses to a nuclear power plant emergency. Utility company representatives contend that protective action advisories can be structured so as to stifle the magnitude and geographic extent of spontaneous evacuation. Data from a utility-company-sponsored telephone survey of households on Long Island, New York, where the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station is located, are used in this paper to test this proposition. Analyses of responses given to three sets of increasingly serious reactor accident scenarios, with and without information instructing people what protective actions to take, raise serious questions about the ability of emergency notification messages to affect human behavior in a radiological emergency. The results suggest firstly, that even if people me specifically advised not to evacuate, most would be inclined to do so; and secondly, that attempts to stifle the propensity to evacuate among those who are mr at risk are likely to increase the propensity to stay behind among those who are at risk and should evacuate. pontanmus evacuation is a potentially serious problem with which emergen-S cy management officials must be prepared to cope should another nuclear reactor accident occur in the future. This paper utilizes data from a survey conducted within the vicinity of a nuclear power plant on Long Island, New York, to test the proposition, advanced by utility company representatives in two recent reactor licensing cases, that emergency notification messages-when they are optimally structured (Sorenson 1984)-will in essence "resolve" the spontaneous evacuation problem (Callendrello 1987). More pointedly, the contention of the utility companies is that clear, operationally specific, and timely emergency information will reduce spontaneous evacuation to such alow level that it will not hinder significantly the expeditious out-movement of those in the path of a passing radioactive plume, nor otherwise complicate emergency management efforts. Intervenors on behalf James H . Johnson, Jr. is a professor of geography at UCLA. Donald J. Zeigler is an associate professor of geography and Associate Chair of the Department of Political Science and Geography at Old Dominion University.

show abstract

“…If separated at the time the evacuation order is announced they rather prefer to meet within the evacuation zone than leaving individually (Fritz and Marks, 1954;Drabek, 1969;Kiefer et al, 2009). In terms of socio-demographics, women and children are more likely to participate in an evacuation than men (Houts et al, 1984;Johnson and Zeigler, 1986;Houts et al, 1988;Efrat, 1992). Furthermore, younger people participate more often than older ones (Houts et al, 1988;Liverman and Wilson, 1981;Fussell, 2006).…”

Section: Within-day Replanning Of Exceptional Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Within-Day Replanning of Exceptional Events

Dobler

Kowald

Rieser-Schüssler

et al. 2012

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Typical software that is used for the simulation of traffic behavior focuses on scenarios that describe common situations like an ordinary working day without remarkable incidents. To simulate such scenarios, iterative approaches are used. They assume that the simulated people adapt to the results of the previous iterations. Such iterative approaches produce meaningful results for various scenarios as long as only typical, repetitive situations are modeled.However, a scenario may also contain incidents that occur by chance, which increases the complexity of a model substantially. In such scenarios, an iterative approach would produce illogical and even totally wrong results. An attempt to handle such scenarios is within-day replanning.This paper describes the problems that arise when applying an iterative simulation approach to a scenario with exceptional events. The within-day replanning technique is introduced and implemented in the multi-agent transport simulation framework MATSim. The implementation allows the simulated agents to replan the routes between their activities while they are traveling. By doing this, they can take the current traffic load into account, an important requirement for scenarios containing unpredictable incidents like road accidents.The capability of the implementation is demonstrated by conducting experiments with a scenario where the capacities of several arterial roads in the center of the City of Zurich are reduced due to an exceptional event. It is shown, that the agents that are affected by those events are able to reduce their travel times if they replan their routes using within-day replanning.

show abstract

Modelling evacuation behavior during the three mile island reactor crisis

Cited by 18 publications

References 22 publications

Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State of the Art Reviewing

Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State of the Art Reviewing

Nuclear Protective Action Advisories: A Policy Analysis and Evaluation

Within-Day Replanning of Exceptional Events

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About