Modelling biological evolution: recent progress, current challenges and future direction

Abstract

Mathematical modelling is widely recognized as a powerful and convenient theoretical tool for investigating various aspects of biological evolution and explaining the existing genetic complexity of the real world. It is increasingly apparent that understanding the key mechanisms involved in the processes of species biodiversity, natural selection and inheritance, patterns of animal behaviour and coevolution of species in complex ecological systems is simply impossible by means of laboratory experiments and field observations alone. Mathematical models are so important because they provide wide-ranging exploration of the problem without a need for experiments with biological systems—which are usually expensive, often require long time and can be potentially dangerous. However, as the number of theoretical works on modelling biological evolution is constantly accelerating each year as different mathematical frameworks and various aspects of evolutionary problems are considered, it is often hard to avoid getting lost in such an immense flux of publications. The aim of this issue of Interface Focus is to provide a useful guide to important recent findings in some key areas in modelling biological evolution, to refine the existing challenges and to outline possible future directions. In particular, the following topics are addressed here by world-leading experts in the modelling of evolution: (i) the origins of biodiversity observed in ecosystems and communities; (ii) evolution of decision-making by animals and the optimal strategy of populations; (iii) links between evolutionary and ecological processes across different time scales; (iv) quantification of biological information in evolutionary models; and (v) linking theoretical models with empirical data. Most of the works presented here are in fact contributed papers from the international conference ‘Modelling Biological Evolution’ (MBE 2013), which took place in Leicester, UK, in May 2013 and brought together theoreticians and empirical evolutionary biologists with the main aim of creating debates and productive discussions between them. Finally, we should emphasize that the individual papers in this issue are not limited to only one of the topics mentioned above, but often lie at the interface of them.

Disease and introgression explain the long-lasting contact zone of Modern Humans and Neanderthals and its eventual destabilization

“…We develop a modeling approach to explore the effects of disease and introgression in a two-species system. In the two-time-scales model, the evolutionary and ecological times scales are separated (see [103][104][105][106][107] for other such models). On the ecological time scale, the spread of diseases is modeled, and on the evolutionary time scale, the species' response to disease burden and the effects of introgression are modeled (Fig.…”

Reflections on the Predictability of Evolution: Toward a Conceptual Framework

“…Interactions between variables are often overlooked, and it is assumed that it is impossible to incorporate all existing variables and their interactions in in vitro experiments or in silico models (Morozov, 2013). At an evolutionary timescale, which differs depending on the organism's generation time, it is not possible to predict environmental variations with certitude, and hence the traits that organisms will develop to adequately respond to these changes.…”