Modelling and forecasting monthly fisheries catches: comparison of regression, univariate and multivariate time series methods

Στεργίου, Κωνσταντίνος Ι.; Christou, Epaminondas D.; Petrakis, G.

doi:10.1016/s0165-7836(96)00482-1

Cited by 110 publications

(90 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…An increasing trend in the commercial landings over the last 15 years can also be observed from the records of the National Statistical Service of Greece (Stergiou et al, 1997b). Pauly et al (1998), who analysed historical FAO fish landings statistics, pointed out that the increasing trend of the world landings during the last 45 years is accompanied by a general decrease of their mean trophic level due to a gradual transition from long-lived, high trophic level, piscivorous bottom fish toward short-lived, low trophic level invertebrates and planktivorous fish.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

“…Other authors have analysed time series of catches of the Greek fishing fleets (Stergiou and Christou, 1996;Stergiou et al, 1997b) but, due to lack of appropriate effort data, no comments could be made on aspects related to stock abundance. In the present case the use of generalised linear modelling permitted spatio-temporal comparisons and identification of time-trends.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends in the abundance of demersal species in the southern Aegean Sea

Tserpes¹,

Peristeraki²

2002

Sci. Mar.

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SUMMARY: The present work identifies trends in the abundance of the main demersal species of the South Aegean Sea utilising catch and effort data derived from an international Mediterranean bottom trawl survey (MEDITS). The experimental surveys were accomplished annually from 1994 to 2000 on 61 pre-defined sampling stations. Selection of stations was based on a depth-stratified random sampling scheme that included five depth strata: 10-50, 50-100, 100-200, 200-500 and 500-800 m. The results suggest the existence of a general increasing trend in the biomass of the demersal species, particularly at the 10-50 m and 500-800 m depth strata. Findings are discussed in relation to the fisheries exploitation pattern and productivity of the area.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in the abundance of demersal species in the southern Aegean Sea

Tserpes¹,

Peristeraki²

2002

Sci. Mar.

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“…This model predicts the persistence of catches (Stergiou et al, 1997). In other words, when catches are high, they tend to remain high for 2 -3 months or years in a row.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Stergiou et al (1997) used ARIMA models to analyze catches of anchovies and Scomber spp, with MAPEs of 26.5% and 33.3%, for the respective species. According to Stergiou (1989), estimates of MAPE approximately 14% are considered acceptable, taking into account the stochasticity of fisheries abundance data resulting from biological and environmental factors.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A time series analysis of Prochilodus nigricans landings caught by small-scale fisheries in the lower stretch of the Amazon River

Santana

Freitas

2013

Braz. J. Biol.

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We developed a time series analysis using data on curimatã (Prochilodus nigricans), which landed in Santarém, a small city located on the right banks of the Amazon River. A 10-year record of monthly average catches per day of P. nigricans was analyzed using forecasting procedures in the open-source software GRETL 1.7.8. We established two models from the identifications made with the correlograms of hyperparametrization and seasonal differences. The autoregressive terms of the model reach three years, indicating that individuals of the species are being caught around the age of three. This may indicate that the curimatãs in the landings at Santarém from 1992 to 2002 were more than two years old, potentially a sign of a lack of fishing pressure on the lower age groups.Keywords: fish landings, curimatã, small-scale fishery, Rio Amazonas. Uma análise em séries temporais das capturas de Prochilodus nigricans pela frota artesanal no trecho inferior do Rio Amazonas ResumoFoi desenvolvida uma análise em séries temporais usando-se dados de desembarque de curimatã, Prochilodus nigricans, em Santarém-PA, uma pequena cidade na margem direita do Rio Amazonas. Uma série histórica de dez anos de capturas diárias foi convertida em médias mensais e analisadas usando-se o software livre GRETL 1.7.8. Definiramse dois modelos a partir da análise dos correlalogramas de hiperparametrização e das diferenças sazonais. Os termos autorregressivos alcançaram três anos, possivelmente indicando que os curimatãs desembarcados em Santarém, entre 1992 e 2002, tinham, em sua maioria, dois anos ou mais, um sinal de ausência de pressão de pesca sobre grupos mais jovens.Palavras-chave: desembarque pesqueiro, curimatã, pesca artesanal, Amazônia.

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“…Nous avons utilisé la théorie classique du Modèle Linéaire Général (GLM) qui semble la mieux adaptée au jeu de données disponibles (LALOE et al, 1996 ;STERGIOU et al, 1997), moyennant un certain nombre d'hypothèses (BRETHES, 1990) et une stratification spatio-temporelle de ces données (BEVERTON et HOLT, 1957 ;KLEIBER et PERRIN, 1991).…”

Section: Estimation Des Cpueunclassified

Analyse De La Tendance De L’abondance De L’alose Alosa Alosa en Gironde À Partir De L’estimation D’indicateurs Halieutiques Sur La Période 1977-1998.

Castelnaud¹,

Rochard²,

Gat³

2001

Bull. Fr. Pêche Piscic.

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RÉSUMÉAu cours des deux dernières décennies, la population d'alose vraie Alosa alosa a été considérée par différents auteurs en diminution, même vouée à la disparition, puis en progression, ou se maintenant à un haut niveau d'effectif dans le bassin de la Garonne. L'objectif de ce travail est de produire les indicateurs halieutiques les plus aptes à rendre compte de la tendance de l'abondance de l'alose vraie en Gironde sur la période 1977-1998. Ces indicateurs saisonniers sont d'une part la CPUE et d'autre part la production totale et l'effort total qui doivent permettre d'expliciter et de conforter le diagnostic sur la tendance de l'abondance.L'échantillon non-aléatoire de données de capture et d'effort provenant d'un réseau de pêcheurs coopératifs, a été stratifié selon les métiers de pêche, les zones de pêche et les quinzaines de pêche. L'estimation des captures totales et des efforts totaux fait appel à la théorie classique de l'échantillonnage avec stratification. Afin d'obtenir un indice qui reflète le mieux possible les variations d'abondance inter-annuelles et qui limite l'incidence des variations de capturabilité dans l'espace et dans le temps, nous avons utilisé la théorie du Modèle Linéaire Général pour construire un modèle log-linéaire qui donne le même poids aux zones et aux quinzaines de pêche sur toute la période d'étude. Le modèle explique la CPUE comme l'addition des effets principaux des facteurs zone, année et quinzaine. Une évolution en paliers des indices d'abondance est testée grâce à un modèle à erreur auto-régressive.On constate que les paliers sont très hautement significatifs pour la Gironde et les trois compartiments Estuaire, Garonne, Dordogne. L'analyse des trois indicateurs halieutique et la confrontation de leur évolution nous amènent à conclure que l'abondance d'A. alosa est au minimum stable en Gironde et qu'elle a très certainement augmenté au cours de la période 1977-1998. Le saut des indices d'abondance observé en 1994 peut être rapporté à l'effet de la mise en place des passes et ascenseurs à poissons sur les parties amont de Garonne et Dordogne.Ces résultats encourageants ne doivent pas dissuader les gestionnaires d'adopter une approche prudente de la population d'alose dans le bassin de la Garonne, compte tenu du statut de cette espèce en Europe. Mots-clés :Alosa alosa, France, Gironde, captures, efforts, CPUE, abondance, Modèle Linéaire Général. ABUNDANCE TREND ANALYSIS OF THE ALLIS SHAD ALOSA ALOSA IN THE GIRONDE BASIN DURING THE 1977-1998 PERIOD ON THE BASIS OF ESTIMATED FISHING INDICATORS. ABSTRACTThe population of the allis shad Alosa alosa has been considered successively in the last twenty years as declining, endangered, increasing, in a satisfactory status. The objective of this study is to estimate the most appropriate fishing indicators which can allow us to state on the abundance trend of Alosa alosa during the 1977-1998 period. These fishing indicators are CPUE, total catch and total fishing effort.The non-random sample of data provided by a group of cooperati...

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Modelling and forecasting monthly fisheries catches: comparison of regression, univariate and multivariate time series methods

Cited by 110 publications

References 31 publications

Trends in the abundance of demersal species in the southern Aegean Sea

Trends in the abundance of demersal species in the southern Aegean Sea

A time series analysis of Prochilodus nigricans landings caught by small-scale fisheries in the lower stretch of the Amazon River

Analyse De La Tendance De L’abondance De L’alose Alosa Alosa en Gironde À Partir De L’estimation D’indicateurs Halieutiques Sur La Période 1977-1998.

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