Modelling Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and the State of Emergency in Japan

Chen, Zhongxiang; Shu, Zhiquan; Huang, Xiaogang; Peng, Ke; Pan, Jiaji

doi:10.3390/ijerph18136858

Cited by 8 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The declaration of the state of emergency might be effective in reducing the reproduction number by requesting individuals to refrain from going out. 23 …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of COVID-19 infection rates on admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions: nationwide difference-in-difference design in Japan

et al. 2022

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ObjectivesSARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19) has affected tertiary medical institutions and primary care. Admission for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) is an important indicator of primary care quality. However, no nationwide study, especially in Asia, has examined the association between admissions for ACSCs and local surges in COVID-19. This study aimed to examine how the number of admissions for ACSCs has changed in Japan between the areas with higher and lower rates of COVID-19 infection.DesignThis was a retrospective two-stage cross-sectional study. We employed a difference-in-difference design to compare the number of hospital admissions for ACSCs between the areas with higher and lower rates of COVID-19 infection in Japan.SettingThe study used a nationwide database in Japan.ParticipantsAll patients were aged 20 years and above and were admitted due to ACSCs during the study period between March and September 2019 (before the pandemic) and between March and September 2020 (during the pandemic).ResultsThe total number of ACSC admissions was 464 560 (276 530 in 2019 and 188 030 in 2020). The change in the number of admissions for ACSCs per 100 000 was not statistically significant between the areas with higher and lower rates of COVID-19 infection: 7.50 (95% CI −87.02 to 102.01). In addition, in acute, chronic and preventable ACSCs, the number of admissions per 100 000 individuals did not change significantly.ConclusionAlthough admissions for ACSCs decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no significant change between the areas with higher and lower rates of COVID-19 infection. This implies that the COVID-19 pandemic affected the areas with higher infection rates and the areas with lower rates.

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“…The declaration of the state of emergency might be effective in reducing the reproduction number by requesting individuals to refrain from going out. 23 …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of COVID-19 infection rates on admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions: nationwide difference-in-difference design in Japan

et al. 2022

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“…To date, many studies have been conducted on COVID-19 transmission to effectively contain its spread. Representative infection transmission models, such as the susceptible–infected–removed model [ 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ] and data-driven time series [ 8 , 9 ], are macroscopic models. These models have the advantage of including macro-parameters and data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of COVID-19 Infection in Public Transportation: The Development of a Model

Park

Kim

2021

IJERPH

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South Korea’s social distancing policies on public transportation only involve mandatory wearing of masks and prohibition of food intake, similar to policies on other indoor spaces. This is not because public transportation is safe from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but because no suitable policies based on accurate data have been implemented. To relieve fears regarding contracting COVID-19 infection through public transportation, the government should provide accurate information and take appropriate measures to lower the risk of COVID-19. This study aimed to develop a model for determining the risk of COVID-19 infection on public transportation considering exposure time, mask efficiency, ventilation rate, and distance. The risk of COVID-19 infection on public transportation was estimated, and the effectiveness of measures to reduce the risk was assessed. The correlation between the risk of infection and various factors was identified through sensitivity analysis of major factors. The analysis shows that, in addition to the general indoor space social distancing policy, ventilation system installation, passenger number reduction in a vehicle, and seat distribution strategies were effective. Based on these results, the government should provide accurate guidelines and implement appropriate policies.

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“…These studies include examining the disease’s clinical features [19] , and estimating crucial epidemiological parameters, such as reproduction numbers, exponential growth, serial intervals and the infection fatality rate [2] , [3] , [7] , [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] , [24] , [25] , [26] , [27] . Moreover, studies have also assessed reinfection and reactivation [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] , the impact of declaring the disease a major public health crisis of international importance [4] , [32] , [33] , the influence of public health awareness on COVID-19 dynamics [34] , optimal control and cost-effectiveness [35] , [36] and the effects of pharmaceutical and NPI measures [6] , [37] . Some studies also adopted fractional calculus to analyze the COVID-19 dynamics to find the optimal control strategies [38] , [39] , [40] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%