South Korea’s social distancing policies on public transportation only involve mandatory wearing of masks and prohibition of food intake, similar to policies on other indoor spaces. This is not because public transportation is safe from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but because no suitable policies based on accurate data have been implemented. To relieve fears regarding contracting COVID-19 infection through public transportation, the government should provide accurate information and take appropriate measures to lower the risk of COVID-19. This study aimed to develop a model for determining the risk of COVID-19 infection on public transportation considering exposure time, mask efficiency, ventilation rate, and distance. The risk of COVID-19 infection on public transportation was estimated, and the effectiveness of measures to reduce the risk was assessed. The correlation between the risk of infection and various factors was identified through sensitivity analysis of major factors. The analysis shows that, in addition to the general indoor space social distancing policy, ventilation system installation, passenger number reduction in a vehicle, and seat distribution strategies were effective. Based on these results, the government should provide accurate guidelines and implement appropriate policies.
Although more than two years have passed since the appearance of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), few policies on public transportation have been implemented to reduce its spread. It is common knowledge that public transportation is vulnerable to COVID-19, but it has not been easy to formulate an appropriate public transportation policy based on a valid rationale. In this study, a modified SEIHR model was developed to evaluate the socioeconomic effects of public transportation policies. By applying the developed model to intercity buses in the Seoul metropolitan area, the socioeconomic efficiency of the policy of reducing the number of passengers was evaluated. The analysis showed that the optimal number of passengers decreased as the number of initially infected people increased; in addition, the basic reproduction number R0, illness cost per person, and probability of infection with a single virus were higher. However, depending on these variable conditions, the policy to reduce the number of passengers in a vehicle may not be required, so it is necessary to make an appropriate judgment according to the situation. In particular, the emergence of a new mutant COVID-19 will necessitate the development of appropriate countermeasures by comprehensively examining the change in the number of infected individuals and the fatality rate. This study can guide the development of such countermeasures.
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