Modelled impact of future climate change on the phenology of winegrapes in Australia

Abstract

Projected impacts from future warming on grapevine phenology have been modelled for two important varieties across six representative wine-growing regions in Australia. Various regional warming projections are based on a range of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios and patterns of climate change from a suite of climate models. Results are compared and contrasted regionally and the sensitivity of grapevine phenology to different climate futures is assessed. Impacts on budburst vary from region to region. Cabernet Sauvignon budburst in Coonawarra is projected to occur earlier by four to eight days in the year 2030, and by six to 11 days in 2050. Season duration (from budburst to harvest) is compressed in all regions studied and harvest is earlier in most cases. Given the highest warming scenario, harvest could be 45 days earlier in Coonawarra by 2050. Some regions may be adversely affected by the chilling requirement not being met in future warmer climates. For example, in the Margaret River region budburst is projected to be later. An important finding of this analysis is that harvest is projected to occur both earlier in the year and in a warmer climate, i.e. a dual warming impact. Harvesting in warmer temperatures can negatively impact grape quality. AbbreviationsGHG greenhouse gas; GCM global climate model

Identifying the future water and salinity risks to irrigated viticulture in the Murray-Darling Basin, South Australia

“…The most critical impact of climate change observed at the global scale is the advancement of maturity of grapes by 4-8 days (Jones et al, 2005;Webb et al, 2011). Webb et al (2007) projected a 50-day advancement in the maturity of grapes in the Coonawarra region of South Australia by 2050. The effects of global warming and associated changes in precipitation patterns may alter terroirs (White et al, 2009), i.e., unique combinations of climate and soils that are used to produce wines of distinctive styles (Webb et al, 2012).…”

Necessidades térmicas de videiras na região da Campanha do Rio Grande do Sul - Brasil

“…Diante do exposto, compreender a fenologia da videira, nos diferentes locais de cultivo, é importante para determinar a capacidade produtiva de uma região, para uma cultura, levando em conta o regime climático da região (MORLAT& BODIN, 2006;WEBB et al, 2007). Logo, estudos que estabeleçam o índice térmico, em graus-dia, para a vitivinicultura em diferentes locais são imprescindíveis, uma vez que pesquisas demonstram variação na necessidade térmica e no número de dias para completar o ciclo para uma mesma cultivar (NEIS et al, 2010).…”

The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change

“…Climate analogue information has been produced for some wine regions of the world (e.g. Jones et al 2009, 2010, Smart 2003, White et al 2006, Webb et al 2007, Webb et al 2013), but this is not comprehensive. The most comprehensive work covers 23 regions worldwide, ranging from cool-to hot-classified, and provides a typological representation of the breadth of the expected climatic change (Webb et al 2013).…”

“…This includes, for example, temperature changes observed recently in specific wine regions (e.g. Jones et al 2005), how these changes have affected and are affecting the phenological stages of vines (de Orduña 2010, Jones and Davis 2000, Ramos et al 2015, Schultze et al 2016b, Webb et al 2007, which current wine producing areas may become unsuitable in the future (Jones et al 2010, Tóth andVégvári 2016), which varieties may be suitable in changing climate conditions (Schultze et al 2016a), how climate change influences incremental and transformative change in the wine grape sector (e.g. Battaglini et al 2009, Park et al 2012, Schultze et al 2016b) and the problems faced by existing wine producing areas in adapting to climate change (Metzger and Rounsevell, 2011), including late frost risk (Molitor et al 2014).…”