Modélisation des niveaux marins extrêmes associés à la circulation des cyclones Lenny (1999) et Omar (2008), commune de saint-pierre, littoral nord-ouest de la Martinique

Lerma, Alexandre Nicolae; Thomas, Yves; Saffache, Pascal; Durand, Paul; Lamy, Mathieu

doi:10.4000/vertigo.15326

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…It was also found to give good results for several islands in the Lesser Antilles, such as Guadeloupe and Martinique (Krien et al, 2015;Nicolae Lerma et al, 2014).…”

Section: Model Performancementioning

confidence: 92%

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Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

Krien¹,

Dudon²,

Roger³

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge -up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

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“…It was also found to give good results for several islands in the Lesser Antilles, such as Guadeloupe and Martinique (Krien et al, 2015;Nicolae Lerma et al, 2014).…”

Section: Model Performancementioning

confidence: 92%

“…The preliminary results are thus still largely used as a reference by decision makers, and recent works investigate the impacts of historical events (e.g., Barras et al, 2008) or the ability of numerical models to reproduce extreme water levels and inland flooding (Nicolae Lerma et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

Krien¹,

Dudon²,

Roger³

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Several approaches have been proposed so far, such as JPM-OS (Joint Probability Methods with Optimal Sampling, e.g., Resio, 2007;Toro et al, 2010) or the statistical-deterministic model of Emanuel et al (2006). They have been used successfully for storm surge assessment at local (Lin et al, 2010(Lin et al, , 2012, regional (Harper et al, 2009;Niedoroda et al, 2010) or even continental (Haigh et al, 2014) scales. In the present paper, we use the statistical-deterministic approach of Emanuel et al (2006), which provided good results for Guadeloupe in a previous study (Krien et al, 2015).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in Lesser Antilles-Case study of Martinique

Krien¹,

Dudon²,

Roger³

et al. 2017

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges cause great threats to lives, properties, and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazard with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique, under present climate or considering a potential sea-level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge, up to 100 % in some cases. The non-linear interactions of sea level rise with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique, but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles, and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

show abstract

Modélisation des niveaux marins extrêmes associés à la circulation des cyclones Lenny (1999) et Omar (2008), commune de saint-pierre, littoral nord-ouest de la Martinique

Cited by 2 publications

References 24 publications

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in Lesser Antilles-Case study of Martinique

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