Modeling transmission dynamics of rabies in Nepal

Abstract

Even though vaccines against rabies are available, rabies still remains a burden killing a significant number of humans as well as domestic and wild animals in many parts of the world, including Nepal. In this study, we develop a mathematical model to describe transmission dynamics of rabies in Nepal. In particular, an indirect interspecies transmission from jackals to humans through dogs, which is relevant to the context of Nepal, is one of the novel features of our model. Our model utilizes annual dog-bite data collected from Nepal for a decade long period, allowing us to reasonably estimate parameters related to rabies transmission in Nepal. Using our model, we calculated the basic reproduction number ( 1.16 ) as well as intraspecies basic reproduction numbers of dogs ( 1.14 ) and jackals ( 0.07 ) for Nepal, and identified that the dog-related parameters are primary contributors to . Our results show that, along with dogs, jackals may also play an important role, albeit lesser extent, in the persistence of rabies in Nepal. Our model also suggests that control strategies may help reduce the prevalence significantly but the jackal vaccination may not be as effective as dog-related preventive strategies. To get deeper insight into the role of intraspecies and interspecies transmission between dog and jackal populations in the persistence of rabies, we also extended our model analysis into a wider parameter range. Interestingly, for some feasible parameters, even though rabies is theoretically controlled in each dog and jackal populations ( 1 , 1 ) if isolated, the rabies epidemic may still occur ( 1 ) due to interspecies transmission. These results may be useful to design effective prevention and control strategies for mitigating rabies burden in Nepal and other parts of the world.

Insight into Delta variant dominated second wave of COVID-19 in Nepal

“…Therefore, we focus on vaccination programs targeting 71.6% of the eligible population by a specific timeframe. The vaccination rate , in our model with the target to cover 71.6% eligible population by vaccination timeframe, , can be calculated using ζ ( Pantha et al, 2021a ). For varying vaccination timeframes from October 31, 2021, to April 30, 2022, and the varying level of lockdown from 0% to 80%, we simulated our model to predict maximum daily cases, the total cases, the total deaths, the total medical cares, the total ICUs, and the total ventilators, during the pandemic until April 2022 ( Fig.…”

Clinico-epidemiological study on animal bite presenting to a tertiary care hospital in western part of Nepal

“…2 Rabies has been endemic in Nepal with an underestimated annual death of 100 per year. 9,10 In Nepal, the transmission of rabies is from jackals to humans through stray dogs as the mediator. 10 The fenceless forests allowing contiguity of wild and pet animals and the free trade and movement of humans and animals across unbarred border with India has facilitated the transmission of infectious diseases.…”

“…9,10 In Nepal, the transmission of rabies is from jackals to humans through stray dogs as the mediator. 10 The fenceless forests allowing contiguity of wild and pet animals and the free trade and movement of humans and animals across unbarred border with India has facilitated the transmission of infectious diseases. Also, the increasing population of stray dogs has primarily escalated the transmission risk of rabies from wild animals to stray dogs, which subsequently imparts the virus to humans.…”

“…Also, the increasing population of stray dogs has primarily escalated the transmission risk of rabies from wild animals to stray dogs, which subsequently imparts the virus to humans. 9,10 The majority of the human and animal rabies cases have been reported from terai region. 8 The objective of this study was to study the clinicoepidemiological aspects of animal-bite in cases reporting to our hospital.…”

Dynamic analysis of rabies transmission and elimination in mainland China

“…Hudson et al employed rabies models to simulate potential outbreaks and evaluate various disease control strategies to improve control of a potential rabies incursion in Australia [ 26 ]. Pantha et al developed a mathematical model to describe the transmission status of rabies in Nepal, evaluated potential control strategies, and proposed that inter-species transmission from jackals to dogs to humans may lead to ongoing prevalence of rabies in Nepal [ 27 ].…”