Dynamic analysis of rabies transmission and elimination in mainland China

Lv, Miao-Miao; Sun, Xiang-Dong; Jin, Zhen; Wu, Hai-Rong; Li, Ming-Tao; Sun, Gui-Quan; Pei, Xin; Wu, Yu-Tong; Liu, Ping; Li, Li; Zhang, Juan

doi:10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100615

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Nonetheless, the author does not deliver an explanation concerning which intervention is more sufficient in controlling the spread of rabies in the dog population. Meanwhile, a mathematical model related to the spread of rabies in human and dog populations are discussed in [10]. The model constructed involves vaccination interventions in dogs and humans.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Sensitivity Analysis of A Rabies Epidemic Model involving Dog Vaccination and Dog Population Management

Nur,

Darmawati

2024

Jomta

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Rabies is a zoonotic disease which is spread by animals mostly carnivores. Rabies regards as tropic disease. In this article, we construct a mathematical model for rabies involving dog vaccination and dog population management. The model has two equilibrium points, namely rabies-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point. We determine the effective reproduction ratio using next generation matrix. Our dynamical analysis shows that rabies-free equilibrium point is conditionally stable. A global sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate which intervention is the most crucial among the two interventions considered in the model. We use Latin hypercube sampling method to generate parameter space. To investigate the parameter sensitivity, we calculate the partial rank correlation coefficient. We provide numerical experimental results related to stability and global sensitivity analysis. Our results show that the effective reproduction ratio is more sensitive to dog population management than vaccination intervention. This suggests that dog population management intervention, such as sterilization and monitoring of dog movements significantly reduces the effective reproduction ratio compared to vaccination programs. In addition, the number of infectious dogs has a strong correlation with dog culling actions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%