Modeling the response of ecological service value to land use change through deep learning simulation in Lanzhou, China

Liu, Shiyuan; Xiao, Bin; Jiao, Jizong; Li, Yueshi; Wang, Xiaoyun

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148981

Cited by 37 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…In line with previous studies [7,48,55], we found that changes in LULC could significantly affect the ESV. Changes in LULC alter the ability of ecosystems to provide ecosystem goods and services by affecting ecosystem processes and patterns [56].…”

Section: Response Of Esv To Changes In Lulcsupporting

confidence: 93%

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Trade-Off Analysis of Ecological Service Value in the Manas River Basin Based on Land Use Optimization in China

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Rapid socio-economic development has had a significant impact on land use/cover (LULC) changes, which bring great pressure to the ecological environment. LULC changes affect ecosystem services by altering the structure and function of ecosystems. It is of great significance to reveal the internal relationship between LULC changes and ecosystem service value (ESV) for the protection and restoration of ecological environments. In this study, based on the spatial and temporal evolution of ecological service values in the Manas River basin from 1980 to 2020 and considering ecological and economic benefits, we coupled the gray multi-objective optimization model (GMOP) and patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model (GMOP–PLUS model) to optimize the LULC structure under three scenarios (a natural development scenario, ND; ecological priority development scenario, (EPD); and balanced ecological and economic development scenario, EED) in 2030, and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies in the relationships among the four services. We found that from 1980 to 2020, farmland and construction land expanded 2017.90 km2 and 254.27 km2, respectively, whereas the areas of grassland and unused land decreased by 1617.38 km2 and 755.86 km2, respectively. By 2030, the trend of LULC changes will be stable under the ND scenario, the area of ecological land will increase by 327.42 km2 under the EPD scenario, and the area of construction land will increase most under the EED scenario, reaching 65.01 km2. From 1980 to 2020, the ESV exhibited an upward trend in the basin. In 2030, the ESV will increase by 7.18%, 6.54%, and 6.04% under the EPD, EED, and ND scenarios, respectively. The clustering of the four services is obvious in the desert area and around the water system with “low–low synergy” and “high–high synergy”; the plain area and mountainous area are mainly “high–low trade-off” and “low–high trade-off” relationships. This paper provides a scientific reference for coordinating economic development and ecological protection in the basin. It also provides a new technical approach to address the planning of land resources in the basin.

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Section: Response Of Esv To Changes In Lulcsupporting

confidence: 93%

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Trade-Off Analysis of Ecological Service Value in the Manas River Basin Based on Land Use Optimization in China

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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“…Under the EP scenario, the rapid growth of construction land is limited, and the areas with severe soil erosion and low net plant primary productivity (NPP) are protected. The ED scenario is characterized by rapid economic development [ 48 ], accelerated urbanization, and encroachment on cultivated lands and grasslands. Under the FS scenario, cultivated lands are prevented from being occupied by built-up areas, and the continuous and stable increase of cultivated land is protected.…”

Section: Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Land Use Change Drivers and Simulation of Different Future Scenarios: Taking Shanxi Province of China as an Example

Liu

Zhang

et al. 2023

IJERPH

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This study analyzed change and spatial patterns of land use in Shanxi from 2000 to 2020. The drivers of land use and cover change (LUCC) in cultivated lands, forest lands, grasslands, and rural construction areas were explored from four dimensions, including population, natural environment, location traffic, and economic development. The CA-Markov model was used to simulate the scenarios of natural growth (NG), ecological protection (EP), economic development (ED), food security (FS), ecological protection–economic development (EP-ED), and ecological protection–food security (EP-FS) in 2030. The results indicated that: (1) The conversion to built-up areas primarily dominated the LUCC processes, and their expansion was mainly to the detriment of the cultivated lands and grasslands during 2000–2020. (2) From 2000 to 2020, population, economy, and land productivity were the main factors of LUCC; the interaction of drivers for the increase of cultivated lands, forest lands, grasslands, and rural construction areas showed enhancement. (3) Under the NG, ED, and EP-ED scenarios, the rural construction areas would have increased significantly, while under the FS and EP-FS scenarios, the cultivated lands would only just have increased. These future land use scenarios can inform decision-makers to make sound decisions that balance socio-economic, ecological, and food security benefits.

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“…This re ects that the relationship between ESs is complex, and we should not only pursue the bene ts provided by a single ecosystem service but also ignore the rest of the ESs. We need to consider the strongly in uence of multiple changes on the whole ecosystem before making decisions to ensure both current bene ts and sustainable development 39,40 .…”

Section: Ess Trade-offs and Synergymentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade-offs and synergistic relationships of ecosystem services in the Qinling mountains, China

Zhao

Kang

Jin

et al. 2023

Preprint

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To accelerate the construction of the national ecological security pattern and achieve the mutual promotion of regional ecological protection and economic development, this study focuses on the Qinling Mountains as the study area. Remote sensing, meteorological, and soil data were used to assess habitat quality, soil and water conservation, water production, and water purification trade-offs in the study area from 1980 to 2018. The study also explored the synergistic relationships among different ecosystem services and their spatial and temporal changes. The main findings revealed an overall increasing trend in habitat quality from 1980 to 2018, while soil and water conservation displayed an overall decreasing trend. Water production also showed an overall decreasing trend, while the maintenance of nitrogen and phosphorus both showed a decreasing trend. The study found a weak trade-off between habitat quality and soil conservation and water production, and a strong synergistic relationship with water quality purification. The study also revealed strong synergistic relationships between soil and water conservation and water production, weaker synergistic relationships between water production and water purification, and a stronger synergistic relationship between water production and water purification.

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Modeling the response of ecological service value to land use change through deep learning simulation in Lanzhou, China

Cited by 37 publications

References 73 publications

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Trade-Off Analysis of Ecological Service Value in the Manas River Basin Based on Land Use Optimization in China

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Trade-Off Analysis of Ecological Service Value in the Manas River Basin Based on Land Use Optimization in China

Analysis of Land Use Change Drivers and Simulation of Different Future Scenarios: Taking Shanxi Province of China as an Example

Trade-offs and synergistic relationships of ecosystem services in the Qinling mountains, China

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