Multi-Scenario Simulation and Trade-Off Analysis of Ecological Service Value in the Manas River Basin Based on Land Use Optimization in China

Abstract

Rapid socio-economic development has had a significant impact on land use/cover (LULC) changes, which bring great pressure to the ecological environment. LULC changes affect ecosystem services by altering the structure and function of ecosystems. It is of great significance to reveal the internal relationship between LULC changes and ecosystem service value (ESV) for the protection and restoration of ecological environments. In this study, based on the spatial and temporal evolution of ecological service values in the Manas River basin from 1980 to 2020 and considering ecological and economic benefits, we coupled the gray multi-objective optimization model (GMOP) and patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model (GMOP–PLUS model) to optimize the LULC structure under three scenarios (a natural development scenario, ND; ecological priority development scenario, (EPD); and balanced ecological and economic development scenario, EED) in 2030, and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies in the relationships among the four services. We found that from 1980 to 2020, farmland and construction land expanded 2017.90 km2 and 254.27 km2, respectively, whereas the areas of grassland and unused land decreased by 1617.38 km2 and 755.86 km2, respectively. By 2030, the trend of LULC changes will be stable under the ND scenario, the area of ecological land will increase by 327.42 km2 under the EPD scenario, and the area of construction land will increase most under the EED scenario, reaching 65.01 km2. From 1980 to 2020, the ESV exhibited an upward trend in the basin. In 2030, the ESV will increase by 7.18%, 6.54%, and 6.04% under the EPD, EED, and ND scenarios, respectively. The clustering of the four services is obvious in the desert area and around the water system with “low–low synergy” and “high–high synergy”; the plain area and mountainous area are mainly “high–low trade-off” and “low–high trade-off” relationships. This paper provides a scientific reference for coordinating economic development and ecological protection in the basin. It also provides a new technical approach to address the planning of land resources in the basin.

Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China

“…Combining research experience of existing scenario simulations [ 9 , 21 , 27 ] with the ability of the PLUS model to achieve an optimal land-use structure under multiobjective programming [ 21 ], the natural evolution scenario (NES), ecological protection scenario (EPS), economic development scenario (EDS), and planned development scenario (PDS) were set. The simulation parameters and the transition matrix were determined by referring to the land-use transition probability from 1980 to 2020 and simulation accuracy.…”

Intensity Characteristics and Multi-Scenario Projection of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Hengyang, China

“…The PLUS model includes two modules, a rule mining framework based on the land expansion analysis strategy (LEAS) and a CA based on multitype random patch seeds [ 56 ]. Based on CA, the PLUS model combines random seed generation and a threshold-decreasing mechanism to simulate the change of patch level of multi-type land use [ 57 ]. The PLUS mechanism can well meet the purpose of this study and can better understand the LULC change process on driving forces.…”

Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution and drivers of cropland in the economic zone of the northern slope of Tianshan mountain

“…The Lorenz curve is a useful tool for studying the spatial distribution of a single geographic unit and conducting comparative analyses of multiple geographic units (Du et al 2022). This study employed the Lorenz curve to analyze the equilibrium of cropland spatial distribution within the Tian Shan North Slope Economic Zone.…”