Modeling the Relationship Between the Population Prevalence of Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria and Anemia

Carneiro, Ilona; Smith, T.; Lusingu, John; Malima, Robert; Utzinger, Jürg; Drakeley, Chris

doi:10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.82

Cited by 26 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The points represent crosssectional surveys collated by Brabin and Rogerson. 5 The fitted line corresponds to the model of equation 2. which may be substantial 42 (although the prevalence of anemia in pregnancy is considered by our model of anemia 43 ). Second and most important, there is an unacceptable level of uncertainty associated with estimates of malaria in pregnancy associated neonatal mortality that depend on the assumed relationship with birth weight.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Malaria Transmission Intensity on Neonatal Mortality in Endemic Areas

Ross

Smith

2006

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract.Estimates of the impact of Plasmodium falciparum infections during pregnancy on neonatal mortality have not taken into account how this varies with the level of malaria endemicity and thus do not indicate the possible effects of malaria control strategies that reduce transmission. We now review the relevant literature, and propose a mathematical model for the association between P. falciparum transmission and neonatal death. The excess risk of neonatal mortality in malaria-endemic areas appears to be insensitive to the intensity of P. falciparum transmission over a wide range of endemicity. Moderate reductions in the overall level of malaria transmission in endemic areas are therefore unlikely to significantly reduce neonatal mortality. The magnitude of the excess risk is very uncertain because existing estimates are heavily dependent on the questionable assumption that the effects are mediated by birth weight. Accurate prediction of the impact of malaria control measures targeted at pregnant women requires direct estimates of malariaattributable neonatal mortality rates.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Malaria Transmission Intensity on Neonatal Mortality in Endemic Areas

Ross

Smith

2006

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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“…Malaria infection can undermine nutrition in the initially well-nourished, and it is a major driver of chronic anemia in areas where it is endemic (24). At the same time, nutrition strongly shapes malaria outcomes: Low levels of key micronutrients account for a substantial proportion of malaria morbidity and mortality (26,94).…”

Section: Health and Disease Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Complexity Of Food and Nutrition Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even given adequate supply and access to food, nutrition security can be influenced by individual heterogeneity in physiology or disease (20,21) and by access to clean water, hygiene, and cooking practices (22, 23). Evidence suggests that malnutrition can be affected by infectious disease, and, in turn, undernutrition (and potentially overnutrition) can shape susceptibility, transmission, and progression of infection, creating reinforcing feedbacks (2,13,20,(24)(25)(26)(27)(28).Food and nutrition insecurity in the future is likely to be affected by ongoing regional and global trends that have an impact on the potential functioning of the food system, such as climate change (29)(30)(31)(32)(33)(34)(35), population growth (3, 36), economic development (37, 38), urbanization (36,38,39), migration (38, 39), and especially environmental and ecosystem dynamics (36,(40)(41)(42)(43)(44)(45). These constitute distinct dynamic systems that interact with food production, distribution, or consumption, and affect the stability and sustainability of the food supply and of nutrition itself.…”

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confidence: 99%

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A systems science perspective and transdisciplinary models for food and nutrition security

Hammond

Dubé

2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

179

143

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We argue that food and nutrition security is driven by complex underlying systems and that both research and policy in this area would benefit from a systems approach. We present a framework for such an approach, examine key underlying systems, and identify transdisciplinary modeling tools that may prove especially useful.complexity | agri-food | health | disease | environment N utrition is a fundamental human need, affecting health and well-being throughout the lifespan in myriad ways. A central concept in the study of human nutrition is food and nutrition security, which is typically defined as "when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life" (1). The absence of food and nutrition security can have significant consequences for individuals and for society, including malnutrition, obesity, disease, and poverty.Despite rapid growth in agricultural production over the past four decades, significant malnutrition persists. Average per-capita food consumption was below the recommended 2,200 kcal/d in 33 countries in 2003. Globally, more than 850 million people lack adequate access to food on a regular basis, with a third of these in East and Southeast Asia, another third in South Asia, and a quarter in sub-Saharan Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, one of the most food-insecure regions, the number of hungry people has gone up by 20% since 1990; more than a third of the population is undernourished in such countries as Kenya and Tanzania. There are 126 million underweight children in the world and over 2 billion people who suffer from micronutrient deficiency (2-4).At the same time, there has been an alarming rise in obesity in the developed world (5, 6) and, increasingly, in the developing world as well (7-9). The obesity rate in the United States doubled between 1970 and 2000, to almost 30% (5); worldwide, nearly 1.5 billion people are now overweight or obese (9). Like malnutrition, obesity has significant implications for public health (10, 11) and health care costs (12). Obesity can coexist in the same populations as malnutrition, and it may be linked to the same forces that drive reductions in malnutrition (13, 14). Complexity of Food and Nutrition SecurityBoth phenomena, malnutrition and obesity, are manifestations of widespread food and nutrition insecurity. The determinants of this insecurity are complex. A primary driver of food security or insecurity is the agricultural food system. The agrifood system spans a series of interrelated processes, including production of raw food materials through farming and raising of livestock, processing and packaging for consumption, distribution, and utilization by consumers (15). These processes are affected by a range of influences, including diffusion of agricultural technology (16, 17), functioning of capital markets, infrastructure at both local and regional/global levels, organization of firms and supply chains, sociopolitical factors ...

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“…Six of the parameters are part of a statistical model for how anaemia depends on infection status (Carneiro et al 2006). This anaemia component does not feed back into the rest of the model.…”

Section: S O F T W a R E A N D F I T T I N G T O D A T Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a comprehensive simulation model of malaria epidemiology and control

et al. 2008

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Planning of the control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria leads to a need for models of malaria epidemiology that provide realistic quantitative prediction of likely epidemiological outcomes of a wide range of control strategies. Predictions of the effects of control often ignore medium-and long-term dynamics. The complexities of the Plasmodium life-cycle, and of within-host dynamics, limit the applicability of conventional deterministic malaria models. We use individual-based stochastic simulations of malaria epidemiology to predict the impacts of interventions on infection, morbidity, mortality, health services use and costs. Individual infections are simulated by stochastic series of parasite densities, and naturally acquired immunity acts by reducing densities. Morbidity and mortality risks, and infectiousness to vectors, depend on parasite densities. The simulated infections are nested within simulations of individuals in human populations, and linked to models of interventions and health systems. We use numerous field datasets to optimise parameter estimates. By using a volunteer computing system we obtain the enormous computational power required for model fitting, sensitivity analysis, and exploration of many different intervention strategies. The project thus provides a general platform for comparing, fitting, and evaluating different model structures, and for quantitative prediction of effects of different interventions and integrated control programmes.

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Modeling the Relationship Between the Population Prevalence of Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria and Anemia

Cited by 26 publications

References 29 publications

The Effect of Malaria Transmission Intensity on Neonatal Mortality in Endemic Areas

The Effect of Malaria Transmission Intensity on Neonatal Mortality in Endemic Areas

A systems science perspective and transdisciplinary models for food and nutrition security

Towards a comprehensive simulation model of malaria epidemiology and control

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