Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in agricultural watersheds of the Midwestern United States

Chien, H.; Yeh, Pat J.‐F.; Knouft, Jason H.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.03.026

Cited by 167 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…SRES scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 were chosen for this study [75,76]. A1B is under the A1 storyline and scenario family, which emphasizes globalization.…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Ligaray

Kim²,

Sthiannopkao

et al. 2015

Water

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Abstract:The Chao Phraya River in Thailand has been greatly affected by climate change and the occurrence of extreme flood events, hindering its economic development. This study assessed the hydrological responses of the Chao Phraya River basin under several climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to simulate the streamflow using meteorological and observed data over a nine-year period from 2003 to 2011. The SWAT model produced an acceptable performance for calibration and validation, yielding Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values greater than 0.5. Precipitation scenarios yielded streamflow variations that corresponded to the change of rainfall intensity and amount of rainfall, while scenarios with increased air temperatures predicted future water shortages. High CO2 concentration scenarios incorporated plant responses that led to a dramatic increase in streamflow. The greenhouse gas emission scenarios increased the streamflow variations to 6.8%, 41.9%, and 38.4% from the reference period (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011). This study also provided a framework upon which the peak flow can be managed to control the nonpoint sources during wet season. We hope that the future climate scenarios presented in this study could provide predictive information for the river basin.

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“…SRES scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 were chosen for this study [75,76]. A1B is under the A1 storyline and scenario family, which emphasizes globalization.…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Ligaray

Kim²,

Sthiannopkao

et al. 2015

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In the last century, significant changes in temperature and precipitation have already been observed, caused by anthropogenic activities. In addition to climate changes, land use changes associated with intensive agriculture and rapid urbanization may cause severe impacts on aquatic systems by influencing water quantity and quality [14]. Water resources have been significantly impaired due to increases or decreases in annual streamflow and seasonal shifts in flow frequency [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rice Intensification in a Changing Environment: Impact on Water Availability in Inland Valley Landscapes in Benin

Danvi

Giertz

Zwart³

et al. 2018

Water

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This study assesses the impact of climate change on hydrological processes under rice intensification in three headwater inland valley watersheds characterized by different land conditions. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to simulate the combined impacts of two land use scenarios defined as converting 25% and 75% of lowland savannah into rice cultivation, and two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The simulations were performed based on the traditional and the rainfed-bunded rice cultivation systems and analyzed up to the year 2049 with a special focus on the period of 2030-2049. Compared to land use, climate change impact on hydrological processes was overwhelming at all watersheds. The watersheds with a high portion of cultivated areas are more sensitive to changes in climate resulting in a decrease of water yield of up to 50% (145 mm). Bunded fields cause a rise in surface runoff projected to be up to 28% (18 mm) in their lowlands, while processes were insignificantly affected at the vegetation dominated-watershed. Analyzing three watersheds instead of one as is usually done provides further insight into the natural variability and therefore gives more evidence of possible future processes and management strategies.

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“…Mounting evidence has suggested that climate and its change has played an important role in controlling the water cycle by changes in evaporation, transpiration, and runoff (McCabe, 2002;Hamlet et al, 2007;Syed et al, 2010;Wang and Hejazi, 2011;Chien et al, 2013;Hegerl et al, 2014;Huntington and Billmire, 2014;McCabe and Wolock, 2014;Sun et al, 2014). Also, climate can exert a dominant control on vegetation structural and phenological characteristics through variations in air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind, and CO 2 concentration (Nemani et al, 2003;Harding et al, 2011;Wang et al, 2014;Zhang, F. et al, 2014;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting water yield and ecosystem productivity across the United States by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate data

Sun

Cohen

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and ecosystem adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) using dynamically downscaled climate data of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031-2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979-2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the coterminous US (CONUS). Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P ) of 45 mm yr −1 (6 %), 1.8 • C increase in temperature (T ), 37 mm yr −1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr −1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 gC m −2 yr −1 (9 %) increase in GPP. We found a large spatial variability in response to climate change across the CONUS 12-digit HUC watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases all variables evaluated. Over half of the watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest, would see an increase in annual Q (> 100 mm yr −1 or 20 %). In addition, we also evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or two-digit HUCs. The study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results may be useful for policy-makers and land managers to formulate appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

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Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in agricultural watersheds of the Midwestern United States

Cited by 167 publications

References 71 publications

Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Rice Intensification in a Changing Environment: Impact on Water Availability in Inland Valley Landscapes in Benin

Projecting water yield and ecosystem productivity across the United States by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate data

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