Modeling the potential distribution of cacti under climate change scenarios in the largest tropical dry forest region in South America

Cavalcante, Arnóbio de Mendonça Barreto; Sampaio, Augusto César Praciano

doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2022.104725

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Previous studies suggested that in Mexico and Caatinga, protecting diversity in its entirety requires multiple, geographically dispersed PAs (Dryflor et al., 2016). Therefore, phylogenetic and beta TD changes must be considered when identifying sites with greater diversity composed of species with different responses to climate change projections (Cavalcante & Praciano Sampaio, 2022). Likewise, having this information on the future of PAs could be beneficial for the conservation of NSDF diversity, as the generation of temporal information at different spatial (local/regional/global) scales will help us to have a more comprehensive understanding and therefore make more effective conservation plans.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the cores of Chiquitano, Misiones, and Caatinga, the climate alterations mentioned above may lead to floristic turnover (encompassing recurrent expansions and retraction of species ranges) within these forests (Plumpton et al., 2020), just as it happened during the middle and late Pleistocene that shaped the biogeographic history and species composition within these current cores (Prado & Gibbs, 1993). Although some species within the Caatinga dry forest may withstand the novel conditions (temperature increases and extended drought) due to their existing physiological adaptations to semiarid climates (Cavalcante & Praciano Sampaio, 2022; Santos et al., 2014), numerous species are likely at risk due to desertification causing contraction of the distribution ranges (Cavalcante et al., 2020). However, other species, such as certain cactus species, may expand their distribution, although many are expected to remain vulnerable (Cavalcante & Praciano Sampaio, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although some species within the Caatinga dry forest may withstand the novel conditions (temperature increases and extended drought) due to their existing physiological adaptations to semiarid climates (Cavalcante & Praciano Sampaio, 2022; Santos et al., 2014), numerous species are likely at risk due to desertification causing contraction of the distribution ranges (Cavalcante et al., 2020). However, other species, such as certain cactus species, may expand their distribution, although many are expected to remain vulnerable (Cavalcante & Praciano Sampaio, 2022). Therefore, future research must be directed to generate additional information along these lines to improve species' information (e.g., distribution and functional data) for their sustainable management and comprehensive protection of the NSDF.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Empirical evidence and many model projections indicate that the populations of several taxa in the NSDF will hardly thrive under novel climatic conditions, and some will be condemned to local extinction (Hof et al., 2011; McNichol & Russo, 2023), most likely associated with relatively low tolerance to drought. In contrast, the colonization of new areas by species favored by the novel climatic conditions, including invasive and local species such as cacti, is also expected (Barreto Cavalcante & Praciano Sampaio, 2022; González‐M et al., 2019, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate‐driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas

Manrique‐Ascencio,

Prieto‐Torres,

Villalobos

et al. 2024

Global Change Biology

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Given the current environmental crisis, biodiversity protection is one of the most urgent socio‐environmental priorities. However, the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), the primary strategy for safeguarding ecosystems, is challenged by global climate change (GCC), with evidence showing that species are shifting their distributions into new areas, causing novel species assemblages. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate PAs' present and future effectiveness for biodiversity under the GCC. Here, we analyzed changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity (PD) of plants associated with the Neotropical seasonally dry forest (NSDF) under GCC scenarios. We modeled the climatic niche of over 1000 plant species in five representative families (in terms of abundance, dominance, and endemism) of the NSDF. We predicted their potential distributions in the present and future years (2040, 2060, and 2080) based on an intermediate scenario of shared socio‐economic pathways (SSP 3.70), allowing species to disperse to new sites or constrained to the current distribution. Then, we tested if the current PAs network represents the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities. Our results suggest that GCC could promote novel species assemblages with local responses (communities' modifications) across the biome. In general, models predicted losses in the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities of all the five plant families analyzed across the distribution of the NSDF. However, in the northern floristic groups (i.e., Antilles and Mesoamerica) of the NSDF, taxonomic and PD will be stable in GCC projections. In contrast, across the NSDF in South America, some cores will lose diversity while others will gain diversity under GCC scenarios. PAs in some NSDF regions appeared insufficient to protect the NSDF diversity. Thus, there is an urgent need to assess how the PA system could be better reconfigured to warrant the protection of the NSDF.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate‐driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas

Manrique‐Ascencio,

Prieto‐Torres,

Villalobos

et al. 2024

Global Change Biology

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“…pernambucoensis and T. inamoena (BARBOSA et al, 2020b;OLIVEIRA et al, 2020). Despite the current conservation status of these two species are "little worrisome", recent studies indicate a significant decrease in the distribution of these and other cactus species in their original sites of occurrence, mainly for the future scenario of climate changes (CARVALHO et al, 2021;CAVALCANTE;SAMPAIO, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conservation of seeds of cactaceae species endemic to the caatinga biome: Pilosocereus pachycladus and Tacinga inamoena

2023

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Ecosystems with dry soils are particularly sensitive to climate changes and anthropogenic actions, which represents a threat to the survival of many cactus species. Ex situ seed conservation strategies should be adopted to support in situ conservation. This study evaluated the effect of conservation conditions on germination and vigor of seeds of Pilosocereus pachycladus subsp. pernambucoensis and Tacinga inamoena. The seeds were packaged in paper bags and glass containers and stored under controlled (8 ± 1 °C; 56 ± 2% relative humidity) and non-controlled (24 ± 2 °C; 75 ± 5% relative humidity) environmental conditions for 0 (control), 12, 16, and 20 months. The experiment was conducted in a completely randomized design, in a 2 × 2 × 4 factorial arrangement (conservation environment × packaging × storage period) for each species. The variables evaluated were: water content (%), germination (%), germination speed index (GSI), and mean germination time (MGT). The physiological quality of seeds of both species were preserved when seeds were maintained under controlled environment, regardless of the packaging. However, when stored under non-controlled environment, the packaging in paper bags was more efficient for the conservation of seeds of P. pachycladus subsp. pernambucoensis, and the glass container was more efficient for T. inamoena. This information may be needed for ex situ conservation of these species and to support the recovery of degraded areas susceptible to desertification in the Caatinga biome.

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Modeling the current and future habitat suitability of Neltuma pallida in the dry forest of northern Peru under climate change scenarios to 2100

Barboza,

Bravo,

Cotrina‐Sanchez

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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The development of anthropic activities and climate change effects impact worldwide species' ecosystems and habitats. Habitats' adequate prediction can be an important tool to assess current and future trends. In addition, it allows strategies development for their conservation. The Neltuma pallida of the forest region in northern Peru, although very significant, has experienced a decline in recent years. The objective of this research is to evaluate the current and future distribution and conservation status of N. pallida in the Peruvian dry forest under climate change (Location: Republic of Peru). A total of 132 forest presence records and 10 variables (bioclimatic, topographic, and soil) were processed and selected to obtain the current and future distribution for 2100, using Google Earth Engine (GEE), RStudio, and MaxEnt. The area under the curve values fell within the range of 0.93–0.95, demonstrating a strong predictive capability for both present and future potential habitats. The findings indicated that the likely range of habitats for N. pallida was shaped by factors such as the average temperature of wettest quarter, maximum temperature of warmest month, elevation, rainfall, and precipitation of driest month. The main suitable areas were in the central regions of the geographical departments of Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque, as well as in the northern part of La Libertad. It is critical to determine the habitat suitability of plant species for conservation managers since this information stimulates the development of policies that favor sustainable use programs. In addition, these results can contribute significantly to identify new areas for designing strategies for populations conserving and recovering with an ecological restoration approach.

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Modeling the potential distribution of cacti under climate change scenarios in the largest tropical dry forest region in South America

Cited by 7 publications

References 40 publications

Climate‐driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas

Climate‐driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas

Conservation of seeds of cactaceae species endemic to the caatinga biome: Pilosocereus pachycladus and Tacinga inamoena

Modeling the current and future habitat suitability of Neltuma pallida in the dry forest of northern Peru under climate change scenarios to 2100

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