Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change

Gang, Chengcheng; Zhang, Yanzhen; Wang, Zhaoqi; Chen, Yizhao; Yang, Young-Hoon; Li, Jianlong; Cheng, Jimin; Qi, Jiaguo; Odeh, Inakwu O. A.

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.12.007

Cited by 70 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 54 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The Vulnerable zones indicate areas where relatively rapid environmental changes occur within the boundary of the study area, but cannot be construed as absolutely vulnerable areas because species responses to the changes would differ. However, this result is consistent with the findings of other previous studies that predict changes in biomes or terrestrial vegetation because of climate change [29,[58][59][60]. In particular, [60] predicted a significant increase in net primary productivity (NPP) in tropical forests and temperate forests, but a decrease in NPP in sub-tropical forests and south temperate forests.…”

Section: Evaluation Results Of Bvi and Nisupporting

confidence: 91%

“…However, this result is consistent with the findings of other previous studies that predict changes in biomes or terrestrial vegetation because of climate change [29,[58][59][60]. In particular, [60] predicted a significant increase in net primary productivity (NPP) in tropical forests and temperate forests, but a decrease in NPP in sub-tropical forests and south temperate forests. In general, they conclude that ecosystems in the mid to high latitudes would be more vulnerable to future climate change in terms of distribution ranges and NPP.…”

Section: Evaluation Results Of Bvi and Nisupporting

confidence: 91%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Novel Index for bioclimatic zone-based biodiversity conservation strategies under climate change in Northeast Asia

Choi

Lim

Chung

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Biodiversity is rapidly declining globally and targeted efforts are needed to mitigate the loss of species. Conventional conservation efforts have focused on establishing protected areas and restoring degraded lands in order to maintain current conditions or restore ecosystems to a pre-damaged state. However, as the climate changes, the current bioclimatic zones will be re-distributed globally. Historical distribution patterns may no longer serve as an effective guide for supporting biodiversity under climate change. In response to these challenges, this study proposes a spatially explicit strategy for biodiversity conservation that takes climate change into account using bioclimatic classification. The bioclimatic classification maps of Northeast Asia (NEA) were constructed for three historical time periods (the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s) and two future time periods (the 2050s and 2070s) using five general circulation models (GCMs) in representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenarios. It was predicted that, in general, zones are shifting north, and some zones are expanding or shrinking rapidly. Based on an analysis of latitudinal and areal change for each zone, the bioclimate vulnerability index (BVI) and naturality index (NI) were developed to quantify the impact of environmental change. As a result of the BVI analysis, the distribution of vulnerable zones is expected to shift northward and expand. As is evident with the increased vulnerability of the subarctic region caused by the expansion of the temperate climate, the extent of vulnerable zones will increase. Also, the southern regions of NEA are becoming vulnerable due to the transformation of the temperate zone to a more subtropical zone. Quadrant graphs based on the BVI and NI were created to present appropriate strategies for each zone. Our proposed framework shows that conservation strategies should be modified based on the changes in the relative position of each zone over time.

show abstract

Section: Evaluation Results Of Bvi and Nisupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Evaluation Results Of Bvi and Nisupporting

confidence: 91%

Novel Index for bioclimatic zone-based biodiversity conservation strategies under climate change in Northeast Asia

Choi

Lim

Chung

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Two 30-year periods have been considered: the first one ) is the baseline period or reference climate (RC), whereas the other is the last 30 years of the 21st century (2071-2100), named the future climate (FC) here. The period 1961-1990 has been employed in numerous previous studies on climate change projections and impacts, even very recently (e.g., Giorgi and Lionello, 2008;Smiatek et al, 2009;Ciscar et al, 2011;Kyselý et al, 2011;Torma et al, 2011;Heinrich et al, 2014;Perez et al, 2014;Skalák et al, 2014;Belda et al, 2015;Dunford et al, 2015;Faggian, 2015;Casajus et al, 2016;Harrison et al, 2016;Gang et al, 2017;Paeth et al, 2017). It had also been used in various climate projection projects using GCMs and/or RCMs, such as CMIP3/CMIP5, PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES, and CECILIA.…”

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change over the high-mountain versus plain areas: Effects on the land surface hydrologic budget in the Alpine area and northern Italy

Cassardo

Park

Galli

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Climate change may intensify during the second half of the current century. Changes in temperature and precipitation can exert a significant impact on the regional hydrologic cycle. Because the land surface serves as the hub of interactions among the variables constituting the energy and water cycles, evaluating the land surface processes is essential to detail the future climate. In this study, we employ a trusted soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer scheme, called the University of Torino model of land Processes Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA), in offline simulations to quantify the changes in hydrologic components in the Alpine area and northern Italy, between the period of 1961–1990 and 2071–2100. The regional climate projections are obtained by the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) via two emission scenarios – A2 and B2 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The hydroclimate projections, especially from A2, indicate that evapotranspiration generally increases, especially over the plain areas, and consequently the surface soil moisture decreases during summer, falling below the wilting point threshold for an extra month. In the high-mountain areas, due to the earlier snowmelt, the land surface becomes snowless for an additional month. The annual mean number of dry (wet) days increases remarkably (slightly), thus increasing the risk of severe droughts, and slightly increasing the risk of floods coincidently. Our results have serious implications for human life, including agricultural production, water sustainability, and general infrastructures, over the Alpine and adjacent plain areas and can be used to plan the managements of water resources, floods, irrigation, forestry, hydropower, and many other relevant activities.

show abstract

“…Two 30-year periods have been considered: the first one is the baseline period or reference climate (RC), whereas the other is the last 30 years of the 21st century (2071-2100), named the future climate (FC) here. The period has been employed in numerous previous studies on climate change projections and impacts, even very recently (e.g., Giorgi and Lionello, 2008;Smiatek et al, 2009;Ciscar et al, 2011;Kyselý et al, 2011;Torma et al, 2011;Heinrich et al, 2014;Perez et al, 2014;Skalák et al, 2014;Belda et al, 2015;Dunford et al, 2015;Faggian, 2015;Casajus et al, 2016;Harrison et al, 2016;Gang et al, 2017;Paeth et al, 2017). It had also been used in various climate projection projects using GCMs and/or RCMs, such as CMIP3/CMIP5, PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES, and CECILIA.…”

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reply to the Comments by Referee #2

Park¹

2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change

Cited by 70 publications

References 54 publications

Novel Index for bioclimatic zone-based biodiversity conservation strategies under climate change in Northeast Asia

Novel Index for bioclimatic zone-based biodiversity conservation strategies under climate change in Northeast Asia

Climate change over the high-mountain versus plain areas: Effects on the land surface hydrologic budget in the Alpine area and northern Italy

Reply to the Comments by Referee #2

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About