Modeling the Dynamics of Community Resilience to Coastal Hazards Using a Bayesian Network

Cai, Heng; Lam, Nina Siu‐Ngan; Zou, Lei; Qiang, Yi

doi:10.1080/24694452.2017.1421896

Cited by 26 publications

(23 citation statements)

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“…deep neural network) while BN works well [46]. BNs have been applied in previous studies on risk communication [36], coastal risk analysis and decision making [37,38], and community resilience to coastal hazards [39][40][41]. The output in a probabilistic form is well suited to address decision-support needs.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting support for flood mitigation based on flood insurance purchase behavior

Shao

Feng

Lin

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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What is the decision-making mechanism people rely upon to mitigate flood risk? Applying Bayesian Network modeling to a comprehensive survey dataset for the US Gulf Coast, we find that the overall support for flood mitigation can be inferred from flood insurance purchase behavior (i.e. without insurance versus with insurance purchased mandatorily, voluntarily, or both). Therefore, we propose a theoretical decision-making mechanism composed of two dimensions including informed flood risk and sense of insecurity. The informed flood risk is the primary determinant on one's overall support for flood mitigation. Risk mitigation decisions are largely contingent on the level of risk that is effectively conveyed to individuals. Additionally, sense of insecurity plays a moderate role in determining individuals' overall support for flood mitigation. The sense of insecurity can move people toward overall support for mitigation, but the effect is not as large as the informed risk. Results of this study have fundamental policy implications. The flood risk informed by Federal Emergency Management Agency's flood maps not only provides the compulsory basis for flood insurance purchase but also determines individuals' overall support for flood mitigation. Flood map inaccuracy can immensely mislead individuals' overall risk mitigation decision. Meanwhile, this flood risk mitigation decision-making mechanism inferred from a survey data in the US Gulf Coast needs to be tested and validated elsewhere.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting support for flood mitigation based on flood insurance purchase behavior

Shao

Feng

Lin

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Between 1932 and 2010 the state of Louisiana lost ∼4,800 km 2 of land (Couvillion et al, 2011), with projected loss of up to ∼13,500 km 2 by 2100 (Blum and Roberts, 2009;Moser et al, 2014). This loss of land has already resulted in significant landward migration of the population and infrastructure (Dalbom et al, 2014;Lam et al, 2016;Cai et al, 2018;Colten et al, 2018), including current government-subsidized resettlement of a threatened community Simms, 2018). The landward migration is characterized by the replacement of coastal marshes with open water.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Tropical Cyclone-Generated Deposition on the Sustainability of the Pearl River Marsh, Louisiana: The Importance of the Geologic Framework

et al. 2018

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Shoreline retreat is a tremendously important issue along the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially in Louisiana. Although this marine transgression results from a variety of causes, the crucial factor is the difference between marsh surface elevation and rising sea levels. In most cases, the primary cause of a marsh's inability to keep up with sea level is the lack of input of inorganic material. Although tropical cyclones provide an important source of such sediment, little effort has been made to determine the point of origin of the deposited material. In this study we use sedimentary, geochemical and biogeochemical data to identify the bed of the Pearl River and/or Lake Borgne as the source of a ∼5 cm thick clastic layer deposited on the surface of the Pearl River marsh on the Louisiana/Mississippi border. Radiochemical chronologies and sedimentary evidence indicate that this layer was associated with the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. As this material would otherwise have been lost to the system, this deposition indicates a net gain to marsh surface elevation. Accretion rates, determined from 137Cs and 14C profiles and the use of the Katrina layer as a stratigraphic marker, indicate that short-term (∼50 years) rates are as much as an order of magnitude higher than the long-term (1000s of years) rates. We suggest that the marsh's geologic setting in an incised river valley with steep vertical constraints and a large fluvial discharge, promotes rapid accretion rates, with rates accelerating as the sea moves inland, due to extended hydroperiods and the input of clastic material from both the marine and terrestrial sides. These rates are especially large when compared to accretion occurring in the more common open marshes fringing the Gulf that lack fluvial input. The difference is particularly large when related to marsh recovery/regrowth following the deposition of thick hurricane-generated clastic layers. Given the number of similar incised river valleys along the Gulf Coast, we believe that understanding the processes controlling marsh accretion in such environments is essential in evaluating marsh sustainability on a regional basis.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Developing resilience of communities has become widely recognized as critical for for disaster risk management due to the increased incidents of extreme weather events, such as flooding, which have disrupted economic activities, caused huge losses, displaced people and threatened the sustainability of communities across the world (Cai et al, 2018;Cutter 2018;Mallakpour and Villarini, 2015;Montz, 2009;Oladokun et al, 2017;Su, 2016a;Wing et al, 2018). Major international policy instruments such as the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction's (UNISDR) 2015 Strategic Framework and the 2005 Hyogo Framework have emphasized and adopted resilience principles in disaster risk management (Cai et al, 2018;Cutter et al, 2016). For instance, the interplay of extreme floods, population growth and rapid urbanization has increased flood hazard risks such that conventional flood risk management (FRM) measures of concrete structures, levees, flood walls and other defenses have become inadequate and unsustainable across various communities (Duy et al, 2018;Guo et al, 2018;Trogrlić et al, 2018;Wing et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The multiplicity of definitions has led to proliferation of conceptual models, frameworks and interpretations (Costache, 2017). The United Sates National Academies, in a widely cited report (National Research Council, NRC, 2012), describes resilience as the ability of a system to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to adverse events (Cai et al, 2018;Cutter, 2018). Essentially, the concept of resilience involves the interactions of several entities each defined by some social, economic, natural, technical and environmental dimensions (Cai, et al, 2018;Norris et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Towards Measuring Resilience of Flood Prone Communities: A Conceptual Framework

Oladokun¹,

Montz²

2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Community resilience has become an important policy and research concept for understanding and addressing the challenges associated with the interplay of climate change, urbanization, population growth, land use, sustainability, vulnerability and increased frequency of extreme flooding. Although measuring resilience has been identified as a fundamental step toward its understanding and effective management, there is, however, lack of an operational measurement framework due to the difficulty of systematically integrating socio-economic and techno-ecological factors. The study examines the challenges, constraints and construct ramifications that have complicated the development of an operational framework for measuring resilience of flood prone communities. Among others, the study highlights the absence of definitional convergence with its attendant proliferation of conceptual frameworks, challenges of data availability, data variability and data compatibility. The study suggests the adoption of an agreed definitional platform as the basis for developing conceptual constructs across all disciplines dealing with resilience. Using the National Academies’ definition of resilience (NRC 2012), a conceptual and mathematical model was developed using the dimensions, quantities and relationships established by the definition. A fuzzy logic equivalent of the model implemented to generate a resilience index for three flood prone communities in the US. It is concluded that the proposed framework offers a viable approach for measuring community flood resilience even when there is a limitation on data availability and compatibility.

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Modeling the Dynamics of Community Resilience to Coastal Hazards Using a Bayesian Network

Cited by 26 publications

References 50 publications

Predicting support for flood mitigation based on flood insurance purchase behavior

Predicting support for flood mitigation based on flood insurance purchase behavior

The Effects of Tropical Cyclone-Generated Deposition on the Sustainability of the Pearl River Marsh, Louisiana: The Importance of the Geologic Framework

Towards Measuring Resilience of Flood Prone Communities: A Conceptual Framework

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