Modeling the COVID-19 Epidemic With Multi-Population and Control Strategies in the United States

Sun, Deshun; Long, Xiaojun; Liu, Jingxiang

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2021.751940

Cited by 7 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Many previous studies have indicated that the asymptomatic group and the undetected group play an important role in the transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic [ 37 , 38 ]. For simplicity, these two groups are not included in our model, but satisfactory adjustment performance can still be achieved.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Seasonality and Control Measures Jointly Determine the Multistage Waves of the COVID-19 Epidemic: A Modelling Study and Implications

Zheng

Wang

2022

IJERPH

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The current novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a multistage epidemic consisting of multiple rounds of alternating outbreak and containment periods that cannot be modeled with a conventional single-stage Suspected-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model. Seasonality and control measures could be the two most important driving factors of the multistage epidemic. Our goal is to formulate and incorporate the influences of seasonality and control measures into an epidemic model and interpret how these two factors interact to shape the multistage epidemic curves. New confirmed cases will be collected daily from seven Northern Hemisphere countries and five Southern Hemisphere countries from March 2020 to March 2021 to fit and validate the modified model. Results show that COVID-19 is a seasonal epidemic and that epidemic curves can be clearly distinguished in the two hemispheres. Different levels of control measures between different countries during different seasonal periods have different influences on epidemic transmission. Seasonality alone cannot cause the baseline reproduction number R0 to fall below one and control measures must be taken. A superposition of a high level of seasonality and a low level of control measures can lead to a dramatically rapid increase in reported cases.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Seasonality and Control Measures Jointly Determine the Multistage Waves of the COVID-19 Epidemic: A Modelling Study and Implications

Zheng

Wang

2022

IJERPH

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“…A mathematical model of the COVID-19 epidemic with multiple populations and control strategies was put forth by Sun [15]. It included groups for those who were susceptible (S), asymptomatic and undiagnosed (A), symptomatic and diagnosed (AD), symptomatic and infected (I), recovered (R), and dead (D):…”

Section: Constant Term Of the Characteristic Polynomial Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On Basic Reproduction Number R0 : Derivation and Application

Ochwach,

Okongo

2023

J Eng App Sci Technol

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The basic reproductive number (R0 ) is a threshold parameter for a population-level model of infectious disease control. The basic reproduction number is derived by epidemiologists using different techniques. It is used to estimate the basic reproductive rates of infected and susceptible hosts and to guide intervention strategies. In this paper, we give an overview of the methods used in the derivation of R0 and assess the use of R0 in the literature. Finally, we discuss some of the limitations and alternatives to the basic reproduction number that have been identified in the literature. The main contribution of this paper is to provide a guideline and shed light on the basic reproduction number to mathematical modellers and policy makers in order to prevent the possible blown out of the epidemic in the susceptible population.

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“…We can substitute C * I stated in (25) in (24) and calculated as N * 2 λ * C = σ 2 C * I and gives as…”

Section: The Subdynamical System Dfe Stabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On March 11, 2020, WHO declared it as one of the major and dangerous worldwide pandemic diseases [13,20,21]. Respiratory air droplets and touching materials contaminated with the virus are the transmission mechanisms [22][23][24][25]. It has been a great health and economic burden for many nations throughout the world [16,22,26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of HBV and COVID‐19 Coinfection Model with Intervention Strategies

Teklu

2023

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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Coinfection of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and COVID-19 is a common public health problem throughout some nations in the world. In this study, a mathematical model for hepatitis B virus (HBV) and COVID-19 coinfection is constructed to investigate the effect of protection and treatment mechanisms on its spread in the community. Necessary conditions of the proposed model nonnegativity and boundedness of solutions are analyzed. We calculated the model reproduction numbers and carried out the local stabilities of disease-free equilibrium points whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Using the well-known Castillo-Chavez criteria, the disease-free equilibrium points are shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Sensitivity analysis proved that the most influential parameters are transmission rates. Moreover, we carried out numerical simulation and shown results: some parameters have high spreading effect on the disease transmission, single infections have great impact on the coinfection transmission, and using protections and treatments simultaneously is the most effective strategy to minimize and also to eradicate the HBV and COVID-19 coinfection spreading in the community. It is concluded that to control the transmission of both diseases in a population, efforts must be geared towards preventing incident infection with either or both diseases.

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Modeling the COVID-19 Epidemic With Multi-Population and Control Strategies in the United States

Cited by 7 publications

References 26 publications

How Seasonality and Control Measures Jointly Determine the Multistage Waves of the COVID-19 Epidemic: A Modelling Study and Implications

How Seasonality and Control Measures Jointly Determine the Multistage Waves of the COVID-19 Epidemic: A Modelling Study and Implications

On Basic Reproduction Number R0 : Derivation and Application

Analysis of HBV and COVID‐19 Coinfection Model with Intervention Strategies

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