Modeling the Baltic countries’ Green Transition and Desynchronization from the Russian Electricity Grid

Abstract

In the next ten years, the Baltic countries ― Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania ― are planning large investments in renewable power generation and transfer capacity, substantial phase-out of fossil-based power generation, and desynchronization from the Russian electricity grid. In this article, the operational impacts of these changes on the Baltic energy system from 2017 to 2030 are studied with an open-source Backbone energy system model. The operation of Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian power and heat, transport, and building sectors are optimized simultaneously on an hourly level, and results are analysed with operational, environmental, economic, and security indicators. Results suggest that the planned transition would support Baltic targets in renewable generation (from 45% to 92%) and self-reliance (2.3 TWh increase in domestic power generation and 5.5 TWh decrease in natural gas imports) with a moderate impact on system costs. However, an increase in transport CO2 emissions could risk national non-ETS targets. The hourly operation of the system, with a high share of wind and solar, is based on active use of storages and interconnectors. Model results raise concerns about the amount of Estonian dispatchable capacity, the commercial feasibility of Latvian natural gas CHP’s, and the high ramping rates of Lithuanian interconnectors.

Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environmental Systems and Smart Energy Systems

“…The energy systems of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are also in focus by Putkonen et al [8] who address the phase-out of fossil-based electricity generation for renewable energy sources as well as a desynchronisation from the Russian electricity grid. Already planned measures would increase renewable energy exploitation from 45% to 92% with only a moderate impact on costs.…”

Hydrogen as a Renewable Energy Carrier in a Hybrid Configuration of Distributed Energy Systems: Bibliometric Mapping of Current Knowledge and Strategies

“…There are also known solutions that reduce energy waste while simultaneously increasing its efficiency, such as waste energy recovery [17]. On the other hand, for energy producers, interregional connections are often established [18], and in economically justified cases, over-dimensioning of non-dispatchable energy sources is pursued [19,20], or complementarity in the operational characteristics of different renewable energy sources is sought [21]. In addition to stabilizing infrastructure design and management, the most popular solutions are associated with the periodic storage of energy excess.…”

Initial analysis of the impact of the Ukrainian power grid synchronization with Continental Europe

“…7 An exception was the Burshtyn Island in South-Western Ukraine, which has been isolated from the rest of the Ukrainian grid and had an interconnection with the ENTSO-E. 5 Notably, the Baltic states are still in synchronous operation with the IPS/UPS but are working to leave this area and synchronize with the CE grid instead. [17][18][19] First plans to connect Ukraine to the Continental European power grid have been formulated in a memorandum of understanding between the European Union and Ukraine in 2005 and reconfirmed in 2016. 7,20 On the 28th June, 2017, transmission system operators from Continental Europe, Ukraine and Moldova signed the ''Agreements on the Conditions of the Future Interconnection of the Power System of Ukraine and Moldova with the Power System of Continental Europe''.…”

“…7 An exception was the Burshtyn Island in South-Western Ukraine, which has been isolated from the rest of the Ukrainian grid and had an interconnection with the ENTSO-E. 5 Notably, the Baltic states are still in synchronous operation with the IPS/UPS but are working to leave this area and synchronize with the CE grid instead. 17–19…”