Modeling the Arctic freshwater system and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges

Lique, Camille; Holland, Marika M.; Dibike, Yonas; Lawrence, David M.; Screen, James A.

doi:10.1002/2015jg003120

Cited by 94 publications

(141 citation statements)

References 223 publications

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“…Rivers play a critical role in the Arctic freshwater system (Carmack et al, 2016;Lique et al, 2016), as river runoff is the major component of freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean (Carmack et al, 2016). Arctic rivers' inflow to the Arctic Ocean accounts for around 10 % of global annual water flux into the oceans (Haine et al, 2015;Lique et al, 2016). The projected increase in meltwater flux into the Arctic Ocean may contribute to sea level rise and changes in water salinity and temperature as well as circulation in the Arctic Ocean (Peterson et al, 2002;Rawlins et al, 2010).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This indicates a future increase in the flow volume of the Arctic rivers and increased freshwater inflow into the Arctic Ocean, continuing the trend observed over the last decades (Peterson et al, 2002;Rawlins et al, 2010), which can be attributed to the thaw of permafrost and increased precipitation in a warmer climate. Rivers play a critical role in the Arctic freshwater system (Carmack et al, 2016;Lique et al, 2016), as river runoff is the major component of freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean (Carmack et al, 2016). Arctic rivers' inflow to the Arctic Ocean accounts for around 10 % of global annual water flux into the oceans (Haine et al, 2015;Lique et al, 2016).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

Asadieh

Krakauer

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

108

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Abstract. Global warming is expected to intensify the Earth's hydrological cycle and increase flood and drought risks. Changes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios in different percentiles of the probability distribution of streamflow, and particularly of high and low streamflow extremes (95th and 5th percentiles), are analyzed using an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) fields fed into different global hydrological models (GHMs) provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to understand the changes in streamflow distribution and simultaneous vulnerability to different types of hydrological risk in different regions. In the multimodel mean under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, 37 % of global land areas experience an increase in magnitude of extremely high streamflow (with an average increase of 24.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of flooding in those regions. On the other hand, 43 % of global land areas show a decrease in the magnitude of extremely low streamflow (average decrease of 51.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of drought in those regions. About 10 % of the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, reflecting the potentially worsening hazard of both flood and drought; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30 % of the world's population (over 2.1 billion people). In a world more than 4 • warmer by the end of the 21st century compared to the pre-industrial era (RCP8.5 scenario), changes in magnitude of streamflow extremes are projected to be about twice as large as in a 2 • warmer world (RCP2.6 scenario). Results also show that inter-GHM uncertainty in streamflow changes, due to representation of terrestrial hydrology, is greater than the inter-GCM uncertainty due to simulation of climate change. Under both forcing scenarios, there is high model agreement for increases in streamflow of the regions near and above the Arctic Circle, and consequent increases in the freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean, while subtropical arid areas experience a reduction in streamflow.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

Asadieh

Krakauer

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

108

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“…This argument is further echoed by Lique et al . [] and Bring et al . [] in their recent review papers on the representation of the Arctic hydrologic cycle in present‐day hydrologic and climate models.…”

Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The coastal streamflow flux has also been shown to be an important driver of dynamics in coupled ice‐ocean models [e.g., Newton et al ., ; Large and Yeager , ; Lique et al ., ]. Newton et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The coastal streamflow flux in the Regional Arctic System Model

et al. 2017

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The coastal streamflow flux from the Arctic drainage basin is an important driver of dynamics in the coupled ice‐ocean system. Comprising more than one third of the total freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean, streamflow is a key component of the regional and global freshwater cycle. To better represent the coupling of the streamflow flux to the ocean, we have developed and applied the RVIC streamflow routing model within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM). The RASM is a high‐resolution regional Earth System Model whose domain includes all of the Arctic drainage basin. In this paper, we introduce the RVIC streamflow routing model, detailing its application within RASM and its advancements in terms of representing high‐resolution streamflow processes. We evaluate model simulated streamflow relative to in situ observations and demonstrate a method for improving model performance using a simple optimization procedure. We also present a new, spatially and temporally consistent, high‐resolution data set of coastal freshwater fluxes for the Arctic drainage basin and surrounding areas that is based on a fully coupled RASM simulation and intended for use in Arctic Ocean modeling applications. This data set is evaluated relative to other coastal streamflow data sets commonly used by the ocean modeling community. We demonstrate that the RASM‐simulated streamflow flux better represents the annual cycle than existing data sets, especially in ungauged areas. Finally, we assess the impact that streamflow has on the coupled ice‐ocean system, finding that the presence of streamflow leads to reduced sea surface salinity, increased sea surface temperatures, and decreased sea ice thickness.

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“…Furthermore, no previous modeling work has investigated the importance of fire‐induced feedback between groundwater flow and permafrost degradation. Understanding interactions between groundwater flow and permafrost dynamics is key to predicting and planning for future change in the water and energy balances of cold regions, particularly since fire effects will be superimposed on a warming trend which is already contributing to permafrost thaw across the Arctic (Hu et al, ; Lique et al, ; Walvoord & Kurylyk, ; Wrona et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Groundwater Controls on Postfire Permafrost Thaw: Water and Energy Balance Effects

et al. 2018

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Fire frequency and severity are increasing in high‐latitude regions, but the degree to which groundwater flow impacts the response of permafrost to fire remains poorly understood. Here we use the Anaktuvuk River Fire (Alaska, USA) as an example for simulating groundwater‐permafrost interactions following fire. We identify key thermal and hydrologic parameters controlling permafrost response to fire both with and without groundwater flow, and separate the relative influence of changes to the water and energy balances on active layer thickness. Our results show that mineral soil porosity, which influences the bulk subsurface thermal conductivity, is a key parameter controlling active layer response to fire in both the absence and presence of groundwater flow. However, including groundwater flow in models increases the perceived importance of subsurface hydrologic properties, such as the soil permeability, and decreases the perceived importance of subsurface thermal properties, such as the thermal conductivity of soil solids. Furthermore, we demonstrate that changes to the energy balance (increased soil temperature) drive increased active layer thickness following fire, while changes to the water balance (decreased groundwater recharge) lead to reduced landscape‐scale variability in active layer thickness and groundwater discharge to surface water features such as streams. These results indicate that explicit consideration of groundwater flow is critical to understanding how permafrost environments respond to fire.

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Modeling the Arctic freshwater system and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges

Cited by 94 publications

References 223 publications

Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

The coastal streamflow flux in the Regional Arctic System Model

Groundwater Controls on Postfire Permafrost Thaw: Water and Energy Balance Effects

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