Permafrost thaw due to climate warming modifies hydrological processes by increasing hydrological connectivity between aquifers and surface water bodies and increasing groundwater storage. While previous studies have documented arctic river baseflow increases and changing wetland and lake distributions, the hydrogeological processes leading to these changes remain poorly understood. This study uses a coupled heat and groundwater flow numerical model with dynamic freezing and thawing processes and an improved set of boundary conditions to simulate the impacts of climate warming on permafrost distribution and groundwater discharge to surface water bodies. We show a spatial shift in groundwater discharge from upslope to downslope and a temporal shift with increasing groundwater discharge during the winter season due to the formation of a lateral supra-permafrost talik underlying the active layer. These insights into changing patterns of groundwater discharge help explain observed changes in arctic baseflow and wetland patterns and are important for northern water resources and ecosystem management.

The impacts of ongoing climate warming on cold-regions hydrogeology and groundwater resources have created a need to develop groundwater models adapted to these environments. Although permafrost is considered relatively impermeable to groundwater flow, permafrost thaw may result in potential increases in surface water infiltration, groundwater recharge, and hydrogeologic connectivity that can impact northern water resources. To account for these feedbacks, groundwater models that include the dynamic effects of freezing and thawing on ground properties and thermal regimes have been recently developed. However, these models are more complex than traditional hydrogeology numerical models due to the inclusion of nonlinear freeze-thaw processes and complex thermal boundary conditions. As such, their use to date has been limited to a small community of modeling experts. This article aims to provide guidelines and tips on cold-regions groundwater modeling for those with previous modeling experience.

Fire frequency and severity are increasing in high‐latitude regions, but the degree to which groundwater flow impacts the response of permafrost to fire remains poorly understood. Here we use the Anaktuvuk River Fire (Alaska, USA) as an example for simulating groundwater‐permafrost interactions following fire. We identify key thermal and hydrologic parameters controlling permafrost response to fire both with and without groundwater flow, and separate the relative influence of changes to the water and energy balances on active layer thickness. Our results show that mineral soil porosity, which influences the bulk subsurface thermal conductivity, is a key parameter controlling active layer response to fire in both the absence and presence of groundwater flow. However, including groundwater flow in models increases the perceived importance of subsurface hydrologic properties, such as the soil permeability, and decreases the perceived importance of subsurface thermal properties, such as the thermal conductivity of soil solids. Furthermore, we demonstrate that changes to the energy balance (increased soil temperature) drive increased active layer thickness following fire, while changes to the water balance (decreased groundwater recharge) lead to reduced landscape‐scale variability in active layer thickness and groundwater discharge to surface water features such as streams. These results indicate that explicit consideration of groundwater flow is critical to understanding how permafrost environments respond to fire.

No abstract

Fire frequency and severity are increasing in high latitude regions, but the degree to which groundwater flow impacts the response of permafrost to fire remains poorly understood. Here, we use the Anaktuvuk River Fire (Alaska, USA) as an example for simulating groundwater-permafrost interactions following fire. We identify key thermal and hydrologic parameters controlling permafrost response to fire both with and without groundwater flow, and separate the relative influence of changes to the water and energy balances on active layer thickness. Our results show that mineral soil porosity, which influences the bulk subsurface thermal conductivity, is a key parameter controlling active layer response to fire in both the absence and presence of groundwater flow. However, neglecting groundwater flow increases the perceived importance of subsurface thermal properties, such as the thermal conductivity of soil solids, and decreases the perceived importance of hydrologic properties, such as the soil permeability. Furthermore, we demonstrate that changes to the energy balance (increased soil temperature) drive increased active layer thickness following fire, while changes to the water balance (decreased groundwater recharge) lead to reduced landscape-scale variability in active layer thickness and groundwater discharge to surface water features such as streams. These results indicate that explicit consideration of groundwater flow is critical to understanding how permafrost environments respond to fire.