Modeling Inflation in Croatia

Vizek, Maruška; Broz, Tanja

doi:10.2753/ree1540-496x450606

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 8 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…See What Drives Inflation in the New EU Member States? (Brussels: European Commission, 2009), as well as Backe et al (2003), Barlow (2005Barlow ( , 2010, Égert (2002), and Vizek and Broz (2009). 5. See also Staehr (2009, p. 43, table 2) for a compact classification of inflation drivers in transitional economies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflation Triggers in Transition Economies: Their Evolution and Specific Features

Petrović

Mladenovic

Nojković

2011

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Analysis of thirty inflation episodes in sixteen European transition economies, using the probit panel model with fixed effects, uncovers inflation triggers that overlap with those obtained in either developing or developed countries or both. However, we found some transition-specific features. Thus, the relative contribution of the triggers evolves as transition progresses, such that the early dominance of the output gap, the fiscal deficit, and elections are subsequently subdued by a rise in food and oil prices, the exchange rate regime, and the current account deficit. The last two triggers could be linked to deep financial integration in Europe and the consequent large flow of capital toward European transition economies in the 2000s, a phenomenon not observed in any other part of the world. In addition, the exchange rate regime as an inflation starter in transitional Europe may be due to its convergence with developed Europe and the resulting real appreciation of currency.KEY WORDS: inflation starts, probit with fixed effects and nonstationary variables, transition economies.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflation Triggers in Transition Economies: Their Evolution and Specific Features

Petrović

Mladenovic

Nojković

2011

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although inflation targeting is not adopted as a monetary policy strategy by the Croatian National Bank, the exchange rate anchor in a small and open economy characterized also by high euroisation level seems to produce the same effects. This is corroborated for instance by the CNB's 'Monetary policy framework' (Croatian National and the research by Vizek and Broz (2009).…”

Section: Comments On the Findings And Comparison To Similar Studiesmentioning

confidence: 59%

Analysis of forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for the Croatian economy

Jerić

Zoričić

Dolinar

2020

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The paper provides, for the first time, the analysis of the quality of the GDP growth and inflation forecasts by multiple forecasters for the Croatian economy. Forecast data of 6 different institutions in the 2006-2015 period are analysed. Efficiency and biasedness test are conducted following the Davies and Lahiri econometric framework based on a three-dimensional panel dataset which includes multiple individual forecasters, target years and forecast horizons. In order to assess directional accuracy we follow the approach by Pesaran and Timmermann. Based on MAE values we find the forecasts to be accurate on a scale comparable to the European Commission's forecast reported in 2016 for the EU and the euro area. GDP growth forecasts exhibit a strong bias related to a notable tendency to over-predict GDP growth. In the case of inflation forecasting the bias is still present for all forecasters, albeit less pronounced and not statistically significant for all of them. There is evidence of forecast inefficiency regarding both analysed variables. Overall, inflation forecasting presents less of a challenge due to specific monetary policy strategy and inaccurate national accounts data accompanied by extended revision process of the GDP data by the government's statistics office.

show abstract

“…Also, there was a relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Vizek and Broz (2009) studied the quarterly inflation in Croatia. They reported that inflation inertia and inflation of Croatian trading partners were important for explaining inflation behavior in the short run.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Factors Predicting Inflation in the Us, England, France, and Germany

2017

Glob J Acc Fin

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this study, the authors investigated the relationship between inflation and macroeconomic factors (namely, short and long term interest rates, unemployment, GDP, and percent debt) for France, Germany, England, and the United States. Time series and autoregressive analysis procedures were used to determine, for each country, the best predictive model over a 5 year period relating inflation as the dependent variable to macro-economic factors as the independent variables. Results showed that for England and the United States, GDP and year were good predictors of inflation. In France, factors that predicted inflation were growth rate and 10-year bond rate and in Germany the factors for predicting inflation were 10-year bond rate and inter bank rate. The models were very good in predicting inflation for the US and England. Prediction of inflation for France and Germany, was not as good as that for England and the United States

show abstract

Modeling Inflation in Croatia

Cited by 11 publications

References 8 publications

Inflation Triggers in Transition Economies: Their Evolution and Specific Features

Inflation Triggers in Transition Economies: Their Evolution and Specific Features

Analysis of forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for the Croatian economy

Economic Factors Predicting Inflation in the Us, England, France, and Germany

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About