This paper shows that exchange rate depreciation in Serbia improves trade balance in the long run, while giving rise to a J-curve effect in the short run. These results add to the already existent empirical evidence for a diverse set of other economies. Both Johansen's and autoregressive distributed lag approach are respectively used giving similar long-run estimates showing that real depreciation improves trade balance. Corresponding errorcorrection models as well as impulse response functions indicate that, following currency depreciation, trade balance first deteriorates before it later improves, i.e. exhibiting the J-curve pattern. These results are relevant for policy making both in Serbia and in a number of other emerging Europe countries as they face major current account adjustments after BoP crises of 2009
SažetakU prethodnom radu Petrović et al. [7], pokazali smo da su izuzetno snažne promene zaposlenosti nakon 2008. godine merene Anketom o radnoj snazi teško moguće i da se, po svemu sudeći, nisu desile. Ovu tvrdnju argumentovali smo potpunim odudaranjem zvaničnih podataka o zaposlenosti od drugih makroekonomskih trendova (privredna aktivnost, lična potrošnja i doprinosi za obavezno socijalno osiguranje), kao i činjenicom da se ništa slično, ni u približnoj meri, nije dešavalo u drugim uporedivim zemljama. To je, međutim, pretenciozno osporeno u radu Arandarenko et al. [1], u kom su, umesto empirijskih dokaza, ponuđeni (kako i sami autori kažu) "relativno retki" hipotetički slučajevi kada je kretanje zaposlenosti kao u Srbiji moguće, uz navodne metodološke greške u korišćenim procedurama Petrović et al. Premda je empirijsko dokazivanje trebalo da bude obavezan deo kritika Arandarenko et al, ali je izostalo, mi smo umesto njih taj posao obavili u ovom radu i tako pokazali da su ponuđene "retke" hipoteze potpuno neutemeljene, tj. da nalazi naše prethodne studije nesporno važe. Daleko važnije od polemisanja sa tvorcima imaginarnih hipoteza je to da zvanična statistika i u 2016. godini prikazuje sumnjive trendove na tržištu rada, što ukazuje na to da problemi koji dovode do nepouzdanosti tih podataka najverovatnije još uvek nisu otklonjeni. Smatramo veoma važnim da RZS revidira postojeće serije podataka od 2008. godine, kako bi one bile tačne i kredibilne. Ključne reči: zaposlenost, ekonomska aktivnost, tržište rada, Anketa o radnoj snazi, Srbija AbstractIn our previous paper, Petrović et al. [7], we showed that large swings in employment since 2008, reported by the Labour Force Survey, were highly improbable and most likely had not happened. Our main arguments were that the official employment data were completely disconnected from other macroeconomic trends, such as economic activity, private consumption or social contribution revenues, as well as that nothing even remotely similar had occurred in any comparable economy. Our conclusions were fiercely challenged in Arandarenko et al. [1], albeit based on (in their words) 'relatively rare' hypothetical cases and on alleged methodological errors, without the authors supplying any empirical evidence for their claims whatsoever. Although the burden of empirical proof was on Arandarenko et al., this time we did their job showing that their hypothesizing is entirely empirically unfounded and that our main conclusions for Serbia still hold. However, what is more important than arguing with hypothesizers, is that the suspicious trends in official employment statistics have continued in 2016, indicating that the disturbing reliability issue has not yet been resolved. Thus, it is a pressing issue for the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) to come out with revised, correct and credible employment series from 2008 onwards.
SažetakNedovoljan privredni rast, preveliki fiskalni deficit uz brzo rastući javni dug i visoka nezaposlenost su najveći problemi ekonomije Srbije. Nakon recesije iz 2014, privredni oporavak je započeo u 2015. godini. Međutim, rast privrede još nekoliko godina će biti nizak, jer je potrebno nekoliko godina da se otklone postojeći strukturni problemi i poraste učešće investicija u BDP. Fiskalni deficit smanjen je u 2015. na 3,7% BDP sa 6,6% BDP iz 2014. godine, što je odličan rezultat. Ali dalje (neophodno) smanjivanje deficita će ići teško, jer nisu pripremljene dovoljno dobre mere, niti sprovedene sve potrebne reforme -a uz sve to postoji rizik novih fiskalnih troškova usled neuspešnog poslovanja javnih i državnih preduzeća. Započeti privredni oporavak u 2015. pokazuje da je negativan uticaj fiskalne konsolidacije na privredni rast u kratkom roku veoma mali. U dužem roku fiskalna konsolidacija povoljno utiče na privredni rast jer obezbeđuje makroekonomsku stabilnost, koja je jedan od preduslova za potrebni rast investicija. Snažan rast zaposlenosti u prethodne tri godine uz stagnaciju privredne aktivnost se, po svemu sudeći, nije ni desio već je posledica nepouzdanosti praćenja kretanje na tržištu rada od strane RZS. Vlada u 2016. i narednim godinama ima veliku odgovornost -u fiskalnom domenu, da ne dozvoli preuranjeno popuštanje restriktivnosti, a da za povećanje privrednog rasta i, posledično, zaposlenosti, uloži veće napore na unapređenju investicionog ambijenta. Ključne reči: ekonomski oporavak, investicije, fiskalni multiplikator, zaposlenost, fiskalna konsolidacija, fiskalni deficit, javni dug AbstractSlow economic growth, excessive fiscal deficit accompanied with rising public debt as well as high unemployment, represent the main problems Serbian economy is facing. The economic recovery has started in 2015 after the 2014 recession. However, economic growth will still remain sluggish in the following years as resolving structural problems and investment increase (relative to GDP) will take some time to achieve. Lowering the fiscal deficit to 3.7% GDP in 2015 from 6.6% GDP in 2014 represents a good result. Nevertheless, further (and necessary) decrease of the deficit will present a challenge as appropriate measures were not adequately planed, while at the same time the needed reforms were not implemented. Additionally, there is a risk of incurring new fiscal costs as a result of a weak performance of public and state owned enterprises. The ongoing economic recovery demonstrates a negligible adverse impact of fiscal consolidation on economic growth. In the long run, fiscal consolidation has a positive effect on growth as it ensures macroeconomic stability needed for investment increase. Strong employment growth in the previous three years amid economic stagnation has not actually happened, and is a consequence of unreliable evaluation of labor market trends done by SORS. The Government is tasked with considerable challenges in 2016: to resist premature fiscal relaxation and concentrate efforts to improve th...
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