Modeling habitat suitability of range plant species using random forest method in arid mountainous rangelands

Sahragard, Hossein Piri; Ajorlo, Majid; Karami, Peyman

doi:10.1007/s11629-018-4898-1

Cited by 22 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…We used three algorithms based on (1) the maximum entropy method (MXD; Fonseca et al 2015;), ( 2) support vector machine (SVM; Drake et al 2006), and (3) random forest (RDF; Sahragard et al 2018) to predict habitat suitability for medicinal plant species native to the Caatinga dry forest. These algorithms are adequate to presence and pseudo-absence data (Andrade et al 2020), as in the localities sampled in this study.…”

Section: Species Distribution Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change will likely threaten areas of suitable habitats for the most relevant medicinal plants native to the Caatinga dry forest

Silva¹,

Cruz‐Neto²,

Tabarelli³

et al. 2022

Ethnobio Conserv

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Disruption of ecosystem services associated with climate change may affect human well-being in different ways. Medicinal plants provide extremely relevant ecosystem services. Here, we tested the hypothesis that highly suitable habitats (i.e., suitability ≥ 0.8) for medicinal plants in Caatinga dry forest may be potentially contracted under scenarios of climate change, which are represented by different levels of increases in greenhouse gas emissions. We performed species distribution modelling to simulate the effects of climate change on the range of suitable habitats for medicinal plants native to the Caatinga dry forest. We selected the 10 most important plant species based on their high local importance as medicinal resources. We documented that climate change may distinctly affect areas of suitable habitats for medicinal plants in the Caatinga dry forest. Independent of the future climatic scenario projected to 2090, 70% of the studied species will likely experience reductions in their areas of highly suitable habitats and 30% will likely experience increases. Specifically, suitable habitats will likely be reduced for (1) Amburana cearensis, (2) Anadenanthera colubrina, (3) Bauhinia cheilantha, (4) Myracrodruon urundeuva, (5) Neocalyptrocalyx longifolium, (6) Operculina hamiltonii, (7) O. macrocarpa; and will likely be increased for (1) Cereus jamacaru, (2) Erythrina velutina, (3) Maytenus rigida. We also documented a reduction in medicinal plant species richness and composition in all three future climatic scenarios analyzed. We alert that potential future contractions of highly suitable habitats for the most important medicinal plants may compromise ecosystem functions and the provisioning of relevant natural medicines, mainly to low-income communities, which are abundant in the Caatinga dry forest.

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Section: Species Distribution Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change will likely threaten areas of suitable habitats for the most relevant medicinal plants native to the Caatinga dry forest

Silva¹,

Cruz‐Neto²,

Tabarelli³

et al. 2022

Ethnobio Conserv

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“…El uso de la modelación de la distribución de la candelilla, permite realizar trabajos en la vegetación de zonas áridas, además de otros ecosistemas donde se pueda analizar el rango de distribución de especies de importancia económica o ecológica, los análisis ecológicos entre las variables climáticas, del suelo y la distribución de las plantas con la finalidad de generar información de áreas o hábitats idóneos para las especies vegetales (Sahragard et al 2018). Además, el empleo del Maxent, con énfasis en especies que tienen o tendrán afectaciones por el cambio climático y la posible pérdida de su hábitat y de los ejemplares de plantas, representa una alternativa para evaluar cambios en el hábitat de los vegetales, mediante estudios de vulnerabilidad por medio de la modelación (Foden et al 2019).…”

Section: Salida Geográficaunclassified

Modelación de la presencia de Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc mediante propiedades físicas y químicas del suelo

Hernández-Herrera

2019

Ecosist. Recur. Agropec.

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México es el único productor y exportador a nivel mundial de la cera de candelilla, pero el mercado internacional se establecieron restricciones con la finalidad de disminuir la presión sobre el recurso natural por la sobreexplotación, por lo que actualmente se encuentra incluida en la lista de la Convención Internacional sobre el Comercio de Especies Amenazadas de Fauna y Flora (CITES). El objetivo fue identificar las propiedades del suelo que favorecen la distribución de la candelilla, mediante el método de máxima entropía, buscando promover su manejo y aprovechamiento sustentable. El área de estudio fueron dos localidades de los municipios de Cuatro Ciénegas y Viesca, Coahuila. Se obtuvieron 102 y 72 sitios de muestreo en los que se registraron las coordenadas, los datos biométricos de los ejemplares, las condiciones del hábitat, del relieve y del tipo de suelo. Se seleccionaron nueve propiedades edáficas, para lo que se descargaron los archivos de la base de datos Soilgrid, la modelación se realizó en el programa Maxent. Como resultados el área bajo la curva en cada localidad con valores 0.927 y 0.973, se considera como un modelo adecuado para determinar la distribución actual de la especie. En el suelo, los factores físicos que fueron determinantes para favorecer la presencia de candelilla fueron: densidad aparente, profundidad y pedregosidad, mientras que los factores químicos: capacidad de intercambio catiónico y el contenido de carbono orgánico.

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“…The value of TSS is a combination of sensitivity and specificity indexes, and the negligence and substitution errors are considered. The value range is between [−1,1]; when the value is greater than 0.8, the fitting effect is excellent; when the value is between 0.6 and 0.8, the fitting effect is good; when the value is between 0.4 and 0.6, the fitting effect is average (Allouche et al, 2006;Piri Sahragard et al, 2018).…”

Section: Evaluation Of Model Accuracymentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Suitable Habitat of Japanese Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius) Based on the Species Distribution Model

2022

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Japanese Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius) is an important commercial fish species with a seasonal migratory habit in China. At present, no study has reported the seasonal variation of its potential suitable habitat. Therefore, we used biomod2 ensemble model to predict the potential suitable habitat of S. niphonius in different seasons through its current distribution sites and future environmental variables. Our results showed that the ensemble model had a high accuracy, with true skill statistics and receiver operator characteristic values of 0.91 and 0.98, respectively. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, the reduction rate of suitable habitats in summer of 2050 will be 33.2%, and those for the rest of the seasons will reach 3.5%. The reduction rate in summer of 2100 will be 43.5%, and those for the remaining seasons will reach 6.5%. In addition, this reduction rate will become more serious with the increase in emission scenario and time, especially in the RCP8.5 in which the summer reduction rate is as high as 88.9%. Habitat changes in summer show a strong temperature sensitivity. The distribution centroid of S. niphonius will shift to higher latitudes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Depth and temperature are the two most important factors that affect the distribution of this species. The results can provide basic data for understanding the adaptability of S. niphonius to climate change and establishing an elastic ecosystem.

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Modeling habitat suitability of range plant species using random forest method in arid mountainous rangelands

Cited by 22 publications

References 50 publications

Climate change will likely threaten areas of suitable habitats for the most relevant medicinal plants native to the Caatinga dry forest

Climate change will likely threaten areas of suitable habitats for the most relevant medicinal plants native to the Caatinga dry forest

Modelación de la presencia de Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc mediante propiedades físicas y químicas del suelo

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Suitable Habitat of Japanese Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius) Based on the Species Distribution Model

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