Modeling endangered mammal species distributions and forest connectivity across the humid Upper Guinea lowland rainforest of West Africa

Freeman, Benedictus; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.; Peterson, A. Townsend

doi:10.1007/s10531-018-01684-6

Cited by 22 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Our results corroborate the other recent studies showing that African ape populations and their habitats are declining dramatically (Freeman et al, 2018;Hickey et al, 2013;Kuehl et al, 2017;Lehmann et al, 2010;Plumptre et al, 2016;Strindberg et al, 2018;Thorne et al, 2013), thus our findings should also be used to guide the prioritization of conservation efforts for these flagship species to avoid irreversible losses.…”

Section: Limitations Of Distribution Modelssupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Our study suggests that both taxa will find environmentally suitable areas outside their current range, in line with our predictions for most African apes. Thus, outcomes from our SDMs should be integrated with a habitat connectivity analysis to optimize conservation land-use planning and identify priority areas for these species (Freeman et al, 2018;Jones et al, 2018). This is extremely important given that African protected areas are distant from each other (Santini, Saura, & Rondinini, 2016) and particularly because great apes have a low dispersal capacity due to their slow reproduction, low population densities, dietary requirements and poor thermoregulation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most African apes occur outside protected areas (Freeman, Roehrdanz, & Peterson, 2018;Heinicke et al, 2019;Strindberg et al, 2018). Importantly, protected areas will not be exempt from climate change (Araújo, Alagador, Cabeza, Nogués-Bravo, & Thuiller, 2011), and shifts in species ranges as predicted by future scenarios would certainly determine the degree of species representation within protected areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios

Carvalho

Graham

Bocksberger

et al. 2020

Preprint

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73Aim: Modelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past 74 conditions, whilst future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting 75 approach, we predicted changes in taxon-specific distribution under future scenarios of 76 climate, land-use and human population changes. 77 Location: Sub-Saharan Africa 78 Methods: We compiled occurrence data on African ape populations from the IUCN A.P.E.S. 79 database and extracted relevant human-, climate-and habitat-related predictors representing 80 current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon-specific distribution under a best-and a 81 worst-case scenario, using ensemble forecasting. Given the large effect on model predictions, 82 we further tested algorithm sensitivity by considering default and non-default modelling 83 options. The latter included interactions between predictors and polynomial terms in 84 correlative algorithms. 85 Results: The future distributions of gorilla and bonobo populations are likely to be directly 86 determined by climate-related variables. In contrast, future chimpanzee distribution is 87 influenced mostly by anthropogenic variables. Both our modelling approaches produced 88 similar model accuracy, although a slight difference in the magnitude of range change was 89 found for Gorilla beringei beringei, G. gorilla diehli, and Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii. On 90 average, a decline of 50% of the geographic range (non-default; or 55% default) is expected 91 under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (57% non-default or 58% default in worst 92 scenario). However, new areas of suitable habitat are predicted to become available for most 93 taxa if dispersal occurs (81% or 103% best, 93% or 91% worst, non-default and default, 94 respectively), except for G. b. beringei. 95 Main Conclusions: Despite the uncertainty in predicting the precise proportion of suitable 96 habitat by 2050, both modelling approaches predict large range losses for all African apes. 97 Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land-use planning and simultaneously 98 support conservation and climate change mitigation measures at all decision-making levels 99 both in range countries and abroad.100 101

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Section: Limitations Of Distribution Modelssupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios

Carvalho

Graham

Bocksberger

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Finally, the third column shows a classification of areas according to possible range changes [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com] studies (e.g. Freeman et al, 2018;Raghavan et al, 2019), producing robust distributional predictions under most conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, the ENM model selection and evaluation approaches adopted in this study satisfy the requirements for effective ENM, and these approaches are increasingly used in diverse studies (e.g. Freeman et al., 2018; Raghavan et al, 2019), producing robust distributional predictions under most conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climatic change on the potential geographic distribution of the threatened West‐Central African endemic genus, Talbotiella

2021

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Climate change is considered to be a leading cause of species extinction, yet the likely effects of climate change on geographic distributions and conservation status of many threatened African plants have not seen detailed evaluation. Here, we used ecological niche modelling approaches to explore and evaluate climate change effects on potential geographic distributions of plants of the threatened West-Central African genus Talbotiella. Our models showed that suitability was lower in the northern parts of its range in West Africa and at it's southern extremes in West-Central Africa. Areas of West Africa between Liberia and southwestern Ghana were identified as potentially suitable areas where new populations or species of the genus could be discovered. Our model transfers to future conditions showed range shifts and contractions in the geographic distribution of the genus; species of the genus are threatened by additional factors such as habitat loss or degradation, agriculture and development of industrial infrastructure.Although species of the genus will likely persist in protected areas, conservation efforts should also include ex situ conservation approaches, particularly as regards individual species in the genus. This study shows how niche modelling approaches could be used to enhance the conservation and discovery of African biodiversity.

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