Modeling COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage towards herd-immunity in the Basque Country, Spain

Stollenwerk, Nico; Mar, Javier; Van-Dierdonck, Joseba Bidaurrazaga; Ibarrondo, Oliver; Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S.; Aguiar, Maíra

doi:10.1101/2021.07.12.21260390

Cited by 8 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 28 publications

(58 reference statements)

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“…Based on previous research experiences applied to other infectious diseases [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14], and more recently applied to COVID-19 dynamics [15][16][17][18][19], the role of asymptomatic infections have been studied, showing that vaccine performance is driven by the ability of asymptomatic or mild disease cases transmitting the virus, with an eventual increase on the number of overall infections in a population [20,21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Within the COVID-19 Basque Modeling Task Force (BMTF), a flexible stochastic framework was developed to describe the epidemics in terms of disease spreading and control in the Basque Country, Spain, giving projections on the national health system needs over time. The SHARUCD framework was parameterized and validated with epidemiological data continuously collected and provided by the Basque Health Department and the Basque Health Service (Osakidetza), and has been used, up to date, to monitor COVID-19 spreading and control over the course of the pandemic [15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. Model refinements and results on the evolution of the epidemics in the Basque Country are updated on a monthly basis and are publicly available as an online dashboard [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain

et al. 2022

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Declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), COVID-19 has spread rapidly around the globe. With eventually substantial global underestimation of infection, by the end of March 2022, more than 470 million cases were confirmed, counting more than 6.1 million deaths worldwide. COVID-19 symptoms range from mild (or no) symptoms to severe illness, with disease severity and death occurring according to a hierarchy of risks, with age and pre-existing health conditions enhancing risks of disease severity. In order to understand the dynamics of disease severity during the initial phase of the pandemic, we propose a modeling framework stratifying the studied population into two groups, older and younger, assuming different risks for severe disease manifestation. The deterministic and the stochastic models are parametrized using epidemiological data for the Basque Country population referring to confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths, from February to the end of March 2020. Using similar parameter values, both models were able to describe well the existing data. A detailed sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the key parameters influencing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in the population. We observed that the population younger than 60 years old of age would contribute more to the overall force of infection than the older population, as opposed to the already existing age-structured models, opening new ways to understand the effect of population age on disease severity during the COVID-19 pandemic. With mild/asymptomatic cases significantly influencing the disease spreading and control, our findings support the vaccination strategy prioritising the most vulnerable individuals to reduce hospitalization and deaths, as well as the non-pharmaceutical intervention measures to reduce disease transmission.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain

et al. 2022

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“…The article [17] is devoted to studying the effect of vaccines that have different efficacy after the first dose and after the second dose regimen, considering the different efficacy against severe disease and not against widespread infection. The model aims to investigate the effect of the vaccine in reducing hospitalizations in a short-term scenario in Spain, with a population under mixed vaccination conditions.…”

Section: Current Research Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Barriers of COVID-19 vaccination in Ukraine during the war: the simulation study using ARIMA model

Chumachenko

Kirinovych

et al. 2022

reks

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The COVID-19 pandemic has become a challenge to public health systems worldwide. As of June 2022, more than 545 million cases have been registered worldwide, more than 6.34 million of which have died. The gratuitous and bloody war launched by Russia in Ukraine has affected the public health system, including disruptions to COVID-19 vaccination plans. The use of simulation models to estimate the necessary coverage of COVID-19 vaccination in Ukraine will make it possible to rapidly change the policy to combat the pandemic in the wartime. This study aims to develop a COVID-19 vaccination model in Ukraine and to study the impact of war on this process. The study is multidisciplinary and includes a sociological study of the attitude of the population of Ukraine toward COVID-19 vaccination before the escalation of the war, the modeling of the vaccine campaign, forecasting the required number of doses administered after the start of the war, epidemiological analysis of the simulation results. This research targeted the COVID-19 epidemic process during the war. The research subjects are the methods and models of epidemic process simulation based on statistical machine learning. Sociological analysis methods were applied to achieve this goal, and an ARIMA model was developed to assess COVID-19 vaccination coverage As a result of the study, the population of Ukraine was clustered in attitude to COVID-19 vaccination. As a result of a sociological study of 437 donors and 797 medical workers, four classes were distinguished: supporters, loyalists, conformists, and skeptics. An ARIMA model was built to simulate the daily coverage of COVID-19 vaccinations. A retrospective forecast verified the model's accuracy for the period 01/25/22 - 02/23/22 in Ukraine. The forecast accuracy for 30 days was 98.79%. The model was applied to estimate the required vaccination coverage in Ukraine for the period 02/24/22 – 03/25/22. Conclusions. A multidisciplinary study made it possible to assess the adherence of the population of Ukraine to COVID-19 vaccination and develop an ARIMA model to assess the necessary COVID-19 vaccination coverage in Ukraine. The model developed is highly accurate and can be used by public health agencies to adjust vaccine policies in wartime. Given the barriers to vaccination acceptance, despite the hostilities, it is necessary to continue to perform awareness-raising work in the media, covering not only the events of the war but also setting the population on the need to receive the first and second doses of the COVID-19 vaccine for previously unvaccinated people, and a booster dose for those who have previously received two doses of the vaccine, involving opinion leaders in such works.

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“…and more recently applied to COVID-19 dynamics [15][16][17][18][19], the role of asymptomatic infections have been studied, showing that vaccine performance is driven by the ability of asymptomatic or mild disease cases transmitting the virus, with an eventual increase on the number of overall infections in a population [20,21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain

Srivastav

Stollenwerk

Van-Dierdonck

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), COVID-19 has spread rapidly around the globe. With eventually substantial global underestimation of infection, by the end of March 2022, more than 470 million cases were confirmed, counting more than 6.1 million deaths worldwide.COVID-19 symptoms range from mild (or no) symptoms to severe illness, with disease severity and death occurring according to a hierarchy of risks, with age and pre-existing health conditions enhancing risks of disease severity. In order to understand the dynamics of disease severity during the initial phase of the pandemic, we propose a modeling framework stratifying the studied population into two groups, older and younger, assuming different risks for severe disease manifestation.The deterministic and the stochastic models are parametrized using epidemiological data for the Basque Country population referring to confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths, from February to the end of March 2020. Using similar parameter values, both models were able to describe well the existing data. A detailed sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the key parameters influencing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in the population. We observed that the population younger than 60 years old of age would contribute more to the overall force of infection than the older population, as opposed to the already existing age-structured models, opening new ways to understand the effect of population age on disease severity during the COVID-19 pandemic.With mild/asymptomatic cases significantly influencing the disease spreading and control, our findings support the vaccination strategy prioritising the most vulnerable individuals to reduce hospitalization and deaths, as well as the non-pharmaceutical intervention measures to reduce disease transmission.

show abstract

Modeling COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage towards herd-immunity in the Basque Country, Spain

Cited by 8 publications

References 28 publications

Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain

Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain

Barriers of COVID-19 vaccination in Ukraine during the war: the simulation study using ARIMA model

Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain

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